1-11-09

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness Sunday NFL

9* Division Round Total

The Steelers led the NFL in the following defensive categories, PPG (13.9), total YPG (237.2), passing YPG (156.9) and third down conversions (31 percent). Pittsburgh finished second in rushing yards (80.2 YPG / 3.3 YPC) and its pass D allowed just 12 TD passes with 20 INTs and 51 sacks (2nd-best). As for the Chargers, they became the first team to make the playoffs after a 4-8 start and then, after being 0-5 vs playoff-bound teams during the regular season, beat the Colts (who entered LW's game on a nine-game winning streak) 23-17 in 0T last Saturday. When these teams met at Pittsburgh in Week 11, the Steelers edged the Chargers 11-10, so based on the above, I guess this game is a 'dead under.' Not at all! First to that game in Week 11. The Steelers played a very sloppy game with 13 penalties for 115 yards. They were stopped on downs and settled for two FGs on three trips inside San Diego's red zone. Big Ben completed 31-of-41 passes in that game for 308 yards, one of just THREE games he topped 300 yards in a game this year. As for San Diego, the Chargers penetrated the Pittsburgh red zone three times as well, scoring one TD and a FG but also suffered an interception. Philip Rivers had his worst outing of the season that game (164 YP / zero TDs and two INTs / 44.4 QB rating) but let's review his full season. He finished the regular season with the league's best QB rating (105.5), the league's best YPA (8.92), the most passing TDs in the league (36) and ended with the fifth-most passing yards (4,009). With LT still less than 100%, I expect Rivers to be the focus of the offense (I don't expect Sproles to be the kind of factor he was against the Colts, do you?). Rivers has "spread the wealth around" this year, with six players catching 27 passes or more and three getting 50 or more. Getting back to Pittsburgh, Parker ran for 115 vs the Chargers in that first game and finished the regular season with 116 yards in Week 17 vs the Browns. This is the healthiest he's been all year and Big Ben should again have excellent success vs a San Diego pass D which allowed 67.9 percent completions this regular season, ranked 31st in yards passing (247.4 YPG) and allowed 25 TDs while intercepting only 15. The Chargers played seven road games this season plus a game in London with the Saints. Five of the eight games went 'over' and the avergae contest totaled a combined 48.1 PPG. Now to the Steelers and their history in Heinz Field. It opened in 2001 and even though the Steelers have always been known for their defense and running game, they are 40-23-1 to the over in their 64 regular season games (that's 62.5 percent). Since Big Ben arrived in 2004, the 'over' is 26-13-1 (66.7 percent). Now here's the 'clincher.' The Steelers have hosted six playoff games in Heinz Field with all SIX going 'over the total,' averaging 52.0 PPG.


9* Division Round Total on SD/Pit Over.


Larry's 25 Club Play (4-0 this season!)

Giants and Eagles are very familiar with each other. Since Coughlin has taken over in New York they've met 11 times, with the Giants owning a 6-5 edge. However, Philly has won THREE of the five meetings in the Meadowlands (including a 20-14 win TY in Week 14), as well as the lone postseason meeting during that span (23-20 at Philly in the '06 playoffs). The Eagles are clearly the team with the most momentum, as after benching McNabb during their embarrassing 36-7 loss at Baltimore in Week 12, the Eagles have gone 5-1 SU and ATS. McNabb, who wound up with a career-high 3,916 passing yards TY (60.4 percent / 23-11 ratio / 86.4 QB rating), threw nine TDs and just one INT in Philly's last five regular season games and then was 24-of-34 for 300 yards (2nd-ever 300-yard playoff game) with one TD and one INT vs the Vikings last week. The Giants got off to an 11-1 start (10-2 ATS) but then struggled down the stretch, losing THREE of their last four games. However, Eli had his best season as a pro, completing 60.3 percent (1st four years completed 54.5 with a 21-10 ratio). His QB rating was 86.4, after posting a 55.4 rating in his rookie season and ratings in the mid-70s over the last three years. Jacobs (1,089 YR / 5.0 YPC / 15 TDs), and Ward (1,025 YR / 5.6 YPC) gave the Giants a duo of 1,000 yard rushers (very rare), while Bradshaw (355 YR / 5.3 YPC) rounded out the league's top rushing attack (157.4 YPC / 5.0 YPC). There's little argument that the Giants will miss Burress but six players caught at least 33 passes TY and Smith (57), Toomer (48), Hixon (43) and even TE Boss (27 catches over his last 10 games with five of his six TDs) are all capable of "making plays." The Eagles did beat the Giants in the Meadowlands in Week 14, holding them to just 211 yards (lone offensive TD by NY came very late) but that was the first game after the "Burress distraction." The Giants are "long past" that now and after a week off, I expect them to be poised for an excellent effort. Philly's receivers are very mediocre and while Westbrook broke off a 71-yard TD catch last Sunday, he was held to just 38 yards rushing on 20 carries (1.9 YPC) vs the Vikings. The Giants may not be quite as good at stopping the run as Minnesota but they ain't bad, allowing 95.8 YPG. Let's also note that Westbrook is hardly 100% and in his final three regular season games, averaged just 49.3 YPG and 3.6 YPC. The Eagles were hardly dominant last week in Minnesota, despite Jackson (15-of-35) being terrible. There is no reason to think Manning won't play well after a solid regular season, following his "breakout performance" in LY's playoffs. The Eagles are on the road for the THIRD time in four weeks and face a Giants team which went 7-1 at home during the regular season. The Giants needed OT in two of those winss but won the other five by margins of nine, 38, 12, 21 and 20 points. Let's not forget this. The Giants won the Super Bowl last year after going 10-6 in the regular season. Despite the team's late slump, New York's 12-4 record was a two-game improvement over its regular season mark of a year ago. Just THREE times in the last 20 years have Super Bowls champs improved on their regular season record the following year and TWICE, those teams went on to win back-to-back Super Bowl titles. I'm not ready to predict a second straight Super Bowl win by the Giants but I am ready to predict a convincing win over the Eagles on Sunday, who were lucky to be playing the Vikings and Tarvaris Jackson last week.


25-Club play on the NY Giants

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

NFL Strong Opinions

NY GIANTS (-4.0) 24 Philadelphia 14

11-Jan-09 10:00 AM Pacific Time

The Eagles are every bit as good as the Giants, but New York has had an extra week off and that has proven to be a significant factor in the playoffs. The oddsmakers started to adjust for the fact that home teams in this round performed better than expected and the road teams have actually covered more often in recent years. However, that has not been the case for teams that qualify in the 36-6 ATS playoff situation that applies to the Giants in this game. Philadelphia and New York split their two games this season, with the Eagles winning here in New Jersey in week 14, but teams with revenge are 15-0 ATS in that 36-6 ATS situation, so New York should be prepared to play well. Also, when division rivals meet in the playoffs the team that lost the most recent game is 23-8-1 ATS if the opponent has a win percentage of less than .700, which is the case here. These teams are even and my math model favors New York by 5 ½ points with the addition home field advantage for this round of the playoffs and the line has come down from -5 points to -4 points, so there is a little bit of line value on the side of New York in addition to the good situation. My only issue with this game is that the Eagles are 43-22-2 ATS as an underdog or pick under coach Andy Reid, including 5-1 ATS in the post-season. Philly is only 3-5 ATS as a dog or pick against a division rival with revenge, so that trend isn't enough to keep me away from favoring New York. It will, however, keep me from making the Giants at Best Bet at this price. I'll consider New York a Strong Opinion at -5 or less and I'd take the Giants in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 at -1.15 odds or better.

PITTSBURGH (-6.0) 24 San Diego 13

11-Jan-09 01:45 PM Pacific Time

These teams played the only 11-10 game in NFL history in week 11 here in Pittsburgh, but that game should not have been that close. Pittsburgh dominated with 410 total yards at 5.7 yards per play to 213 yards at 4.3 yppl and I think they can do it again. The Steelers defense is the single most dominating unit in this game, allowing just 3.9 yppl for the season against a schedule of teams that would combine to averaged 5.3 yppl against an average defense. San Diego's offense was 0.6 yppl better than average for the season and I rate them at 1.1 yppl better than average with Darren Sproles at running back in place of the injured and washed up LaDainian Tomlinson. As good as the San Diego offense is with Sproles getting more touches, the Steelers' defense allowed more 4.8 yppl or more just one time all season (5.3 yppl at Tennessee) and should contain that attack. Pittsburgh isn't much offensively, averaging 5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack and the Chargers are average defensively, but my math model favors Pittsburgh by 5 1/2 points in this game, so the line is fair. The reason for siding with the Steelers is a 36-6 ATS playoff situation that applies to the Steelers in this game and a negative 4-21-1 ATS negative situation that applies to San Diego. The Chargers were able to win as a home underdog last week, but teams that win as a playoff home underdog are just 1-8 ATS on the road in their next playoff game. The reason I'm passing on this game as a Best Bet is because the Chargers are 19-3-2 ATS as an underdog the last 5 seasons, including 3-0 ATS this season. My research shows that teams trends are not nearly as predictive as general situations, so the technical analysis still favors the Steelers and I'll consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at -6 ½ or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang
25 Dime Philadelphia Eagles
10 Dime San Diego Chargers

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with PITTSBURGH. The visiting teams fared very well yesterday, both of them winning outright. That doesn't mean that having an extra week of preparation/recovery time and playing at home isn't important though. The Chargers did play the Steelers tough here during the regular season, losing but covering. While I did win with San Diego in that game, I'll admit that I was somewhat fortunate to do so, as the Chargers benefited from a blown call at the end of that game, which secured the cover. I don't expect them to be nearly so fortunate in today's rematch. Note that after having a bye earlier in the season, the well prepared Steelers won their next game by a score of 38-10. Since squeaking by the Chargers here in mid-November, the Steelers have gone 3-0 SU/ATS in their three games here. They won those games by a combined score of 78-23, each victory coming by a minimum of a touchdown. Looking back further and we find the Steelers at 15-5 their last 20 games here. The Steelers, who are much more accustomed to playing cold weather than their warm weather guests, are 7-3 ATS (9-1 SU) the last 10 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range and an outstanding 37-18 ATS their last 55 times in that role. I expect them to prove to be both the "tougher" and better prepared team today and for that to lead to another convincing win and cover. *Blowout GOM

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer

KO NYG

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with the GIANTS. The visiting teams fared very well yesterday, both of them winning outright. That doesn't mean that having an extra week of preparation/recovery time and playing at home isn't important though. Note that the Giants are 3-1 SU/ATS the last four times that they played with two or more week's rest in between games. After their bye earlier this season, they won their next game by a score of 44-6. While they were beaten by the Eagles here last month, it's also worth noting that they're a profitable 10-3 ATS the last 13 times that they were playing with 'revenge' from an earlier loss. Speaking of the Eagles, they were fortunate to get to face a one-dimensional Minnesota team last week and prior to that, they were extremely fortunate when everything fell into place, just to allow them to get here. I expect their good fortune to run out this afternoon. Even with the earlier loss, the Giants are still 7-1 (6-2 ATS) their last eight games here, outscoring teams by a double-digit margin in the eight games overall. That includes recent victories over quality teams like Dallas, Baltimore and Carolina. Look for the champs to regain their swagger with a big win and cover. *Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

ppp/gavazzi

4 celtics, loyola md
3 niagra, wichita st, ohio

[Mr. IWS]

Root
chairman giants
millionaire steelers

[Mr. IWS]

ppp
3 pitt

[Mr. IWS]

Root

Foots Already Posted

Chair - Ny G
Mill - Pitt


Hoops

Moneymaker - Minny
Billionaire - Drake