1-18-09

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

50 Dime - Pitt
15 Dime - Arz

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with PITTSBURGH. Last week, I won with Pittsburgh but lost with Baltimore. While the Ravens cost me in that game, I wasn't overly impressed with their performance and I expect their season to finally come to an end this week. A closer look at the stats from last week shows that the Ravens were outgained by a whopping 391-211 margin, in terms of total yards. Additionally, the Ravens' offense managed only nine first downs while only managing to stay on the field for 25 minutes. The running game struggled, averaging only 1.7 yards per carry. Flacco didn't make any critical mistakes but still finished the day having completed only 11 of his 22 passes for 161 yards. That was actually a significant upgrade over his performance the previous week, in the Wildcard game at Miami. In that contest, Flacco completed only nine of his 23 passes for just 135 total yards. Having won the turnover battle each time, the Ravens' modest offensive numbers have been enough to get by both Tennessee and Miami. This week, however, they'll be facing a team which is clicking on all cylinders and which is currently playing excellent on BOTH sides of the ball. Like the Titans and unlike the Dolphins, the Steelers are fully capable of matching the Ravens in terms of toughness. Unlike the Titans, the Steelers also boast an offense which isn't afraid to stretch the field. Despite playing in very cold weather and coming off a concussion, Rothlisberger was able to still go 17 of 26 for a respectable 181 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. Big Ben also did a number of "little things," which don't show up in the boxscore, like throwing a big block for Santonio Holmes. While Holmes got things started with his punt return for a touchdown, it was Willie Parker who had his best game in months and who really beat up the Chargers. Parker would finish with 27 carries for 147 yards and two touchdowns. On the other hand, the Steelers held San Diego running back Darrin Sproles to only 11 yards on 15 carries! Overall, in addition to having the advantage in practically every other statistical category, the Steelers had a commanding 36:30 to 23:30 advantage, in terms of time of possession. It's true that the Steelers already defeated the Ravens twice this season. As a result, many people are likely to be pointing out that it's difficult to beat a team three times in the same season. However, as Mike Tomlin had to say: "I personally don't subscribe to that hocus- pocus." Note that with last week's victory notwithstanding, the Ravens are still just 6-10 ATS the last 16 times that they played with 'revenge' from an earlier loss. Its also worth noting that the Ravens will be playing their third straight road game here and that they lost by a score of 30-10 the only previous time that they played three straight road games this season. Looking back at the Conference Championship Round from the past six seasons and we find only one of the 12 games was decided by less than four points, last season's 23-20 overtime victory by the Giants over the Packers. Overall, including Pittsburgh's 34-17 win vs. Denver on 1/22/06, those games had an average margin of victory of nearly two touchdowns. The teams which advance to the Super Bowl won those 12 games by an average score of 30.25 to 16.56. Including last week's victory, the Steelers are now a highly profitable 38-18 ATS the last 56 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. I expect them to get a lead in this game and for that to force the Ravens out of their comfort zone. As Santonio Holmes had to say after last week's win: "That's Steelers football, run the ball. Pound them down, once we get them down we can do whatever we want to do with them." Look for a repeat performance on Sunday. *Championship Round GOY







BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with ARIZONA. I played on the Cardinals in the opening round and they knocked off Atlanta. At the time, I didn't feel that they were getting the respect that they deserved. I didn't play on or against the Cardinals last week (won with 'under') as I wasn't sure how they would play on the road, particularly given their 0-5 record in the Eastern Time Zone. However, as you're probably aware, the Cards performed MORE than adequately, dominating a strong Carolina team (33-13) which had previously been undefeated at home. Despite that outstanding performance and despite the fact that they're back at home, the Cards still aren't getting any respect. In fact, they're getting more than a field goal at home (they were only +3 underdogs when they played on the road at Philadelphia during the season!) which I feel provides us with exceptional value. We knew that the Cards had a great offense. Indeed, they averaged more than 30 points per game at home this season. However, its been the improved play of the defense which has the Cards only a win away from the Super Bowl. Last week, in addition to making Jake Delhomme's (5 INT's!) life miserable, they limited the Panthers' DeAngelo Williams to just 63 rushing yards while holding Jonathan Stewart to only 12. Overall, the Panthers managed a mere 269 total yards. The previous week, the Cards limited the Falcons to just 250 total yards. They made Ryan look like a rookie while holding Michael Turner to only rushing 42 yards on 18 carries. Including the victory over Atlanta, the Cards are now an excellent 10-2 their last 12 home games, which is significantly better than Philadelphia's 5-4-1 record in its past 10 road games. Even with their SU/ATS victory over Minnesota, the Eagles are still just 7-13 ATS the last 20 times they were favored by four points or less. Yes, the Eagles did beat up on the Cardinals back on Thanksgiving Day. However, the Cards had also lost at Carolina during the regular season and that didn't stop them from having their way with the Panthers last week. Including that result, they're 4-1 ATS their last five in the revenge role. They're also 12-7 ATS the last 19 times that they faced a team with a winning record. With the defense currently playing at the top of its game, I expect the Cards to improve on those stats with another huge effort this afternoon. *Main Event




BEN BURNS

I'm playing on Arizona and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on Arizona to finish UNDER the total last week. One could argue that was somewhat of a fortunate victory, as the teams already had 34 (27-7) points by halftime. That being said, one could also argue that it was rather unfortunate for Arizona to have scored 27 points in the first half, as 17 of those points came on three drives which started in Carolina territory, thanks to Delhomme turnovers. While most are focusing on Arizona's 34 points, its the play of the Cardinals' defense which has been more impressive to me. Last week, in addition to making Jake Delhomme's (5 INT's!) life miserable, they limited the Panthers' DeAngelo Williams to just 63 rushing yards while holding Jonathan Stewart to only 12. Overall, the Panthers managed a mere 269 total yards. The previous week, the Cards limited the Falcons to just 250 total yards. They made Ryan look like a rookie while holding Michael Turner to only rushing 42 yards on 18 carries. Note that Atlanta and Carolina had the #2 and #3 rushing attacks in the entire league. This week, the Cardinals will face a Philadelphia team which pounded them on Thanksgiving Night. That's worth noting as, with last week's victory, the Cards have now seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five times that they played in the 'revenge' role. The embarrassing result on Thanksgiving should ensure that the defense is fully fired up for a much better performance this week. As Arizona cornerback Rod Hood had to say: "We're just playing relentless. Everybody's trying to get to the football, make the tackles, knock balls down and be aggressive." As for the Eagles, they've also been outstanding on defense. Both their playoff games have fallen below the total, brining the UNDER to 12-8-1 their last 21 playoff games. Last week, they limited the Giants to a mere 11 points. Since they faced Arizona, no team has scored more than 14 points against them. In fact, those six opponents averaged less than 10 points each. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was a profitable 4-1-1 in those games. While they were an underdog last week, the win over Minnesota in the Wildcard Round brought the UNDER to a highly profitable 23-11-1 the last 35 times that the Eagles were listed as favorites, including 10-5-1 the last 16. Last year's conference championship games both finished with 43 points (23-20 in OT and 21-12) or less. I expect this afternoon's game to also prove lower-scoring than expected with the final combined score staying beneath the generous number. *Total of the Month

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness Sunday

10* NFL AFC Championship Total


In case you weren't aware of this, the Ravens and Steelers are both great defensive teams. That said, let's go 'over' in the AFC championship game. For those of you who were with me last Sunday when I took SD/Pit over, this should not come as much of a surprise. Let me start with some history of the Steelers since the opening of Heinz Field in 2001. It opened in 2001 and even though the Steelers have always been known for their defense and running game, they are 40-23-1 to the over in their 64 regular season games (that's 62.5 percent). Since Big Ben arrived in 2004, the 'over' is 26-13-1 (66.7 percent). Now here's the clincher. The Steelers have hosted seven playoff games in Heinz Field (including last Sunday's game) with all SEVEN going over the total, averaging 53.0 PPG. Am I relying too much on past history here? No, and here's why. Clearly, Flacco is no Rivers, who finished the regular season with the league's best QB rating (105.5), the league's best YPA (8.92), the most passing TDs in the league (36) and ended with the fifth-most passing yards (4,009). However, Flacco is the first rookie QB in NFL history to win two postseason games and he's done it without throwing an interception or being sacked in either game. Let's remember what Flacco's accomplished this year, tutored by OC Cam Cameron (what a hire!). After throwing just one TD with seven INTs through his first five games, he had a 13-5 ratio over his final 11, as the Ravens won NINE of those games, averaging 27.9 PPG. The Ravens ranked 4th in rushing yards this year (148.5 YPG) but after a gaining 151 yards vs Miami (4.6 YPC), they were held to 50 yards in 30 attempts vs Tennessee. That may not bode well vs the Steelers, who ranked second in rushing yards allowed during the regular season (80.2 YPG) and last week vs the Chargers, held San Diego to 15 yards on 12 attempts. Therefore, Flacco may be forced to throw and for some reason, Derrick Mason, the team's lone "big time" receiver, continues to get open, with nine catches in two playoff games, averaging 16.6 YPC compared to 13.0 in the regular season. As for the Steelers, Big Ben won't have that San Diego pass D to go against, which allowed 67.9 percent completions this regular season, ranked 31st in yards passing (247.4 YPG) and allowed 25 TDs while intercepting only 15. The Ravens' pass D and overall defense will be a much tougher "nut to crack" but let's not ignore Baltimore's two playoff games. The Titans gained 391 total yards against them, despite rookie RB Chris Johnson sitting out the entire second half. Johnson was nearly unstoppable in the first half, gaining 72 yards rushing on 11 carries, plus catching a pass for 28 yards. Pittsburgh RB Willie Parker spent most of the season less than 100 percent but had 116 yards rushing in Week 17 vs the Browns and then 146 yards on 27 carries with two TDs vs the Chargers. So expect him to be confident and to play well in this game. Baltimore allowed just 261.1 YPG during the regular season but in two playoff games, has allowed 333.5 YPG. As for Big Ben, he holds the ball too long but he made a number of quality throws vs the Chargers. He has ***** Miller back healthy at TE (27 catches his last six games plus three receptions including one TD vs SD) and the ever-dangerous Hines Ward is always "ready for prime time." I expect the defenses on both sides to make some "big plays" and with any luck, those big plays will create scoring opportunities, rather than prevent them. That's always the 'gamble' in a game like this but with a VERY low total and that great history of Heinz Field playoff games going over, I'm going OVER once again with great confidence.


NFL Championship Game 10* Total on Bal/Pit Over.


Larry's Las Vegas Insider-AFC Champ Game


Will the third time be the charm for the Ravens? Baltimore lost 23-20 (in OT) at Pittsburgh in Week 4 on a Monday night. It was Baltimore's first loss of the season (had opened 2-0) and began a three-game slide, as the Ravens lost 13-10 to the Titans at home and 31-3 at Indy over the next two weeks. At that point in the season, rookie QB Joe Flacco had one TD pass and seven INTs. However, the Ravens finished 9-2 SU and ATS the rest of the way, with Flacco throwing 13 TD passes and just five INTs. Baltimore's running game (148.5 PPG) ranks among the league's best with the combo of McClain (902 YR / 10 TDs) and McGahee (671 YR / 7 TDs) and no one needs to be informed about Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and the rest of the Baltimore defense. Baltimore entered the AFC playoffs as the No. 6 seed winning at Miami 27-9 while forcing five turnovers and 13-10 at Tennessee by forcing three turnovers. Joe Flacco has made headlines by becoming the first rookie QB to win his first two games and let me add something that I haven't heard mentioned. Both of his wins have come on the road and believe it or not, his two playoff road wins ties him with Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana (who both own just the playoff road wins in their careers), the NFL's only two QBs with four Super Bowl wins to their credit! How about that! So getting back to my original question. Will the third time be the charm for the Ravens? Remember, one of the team's two losses over its final 11 games came at home to the Steelers in Week 15, 13-9. My emphatic answer is N-O! Baltimore's D has forced eight turnovers in two weeks and that's 'saved' them. After allowing 261.1 YPG through 16 regular season games, the Ravens have allowed an average of 333.5 YPG in the postseason, including 391 last week at Tennessee with RB Chris Johnson missing the second half (he had 100 yards from scrimmage in the first half alone). DL Terrell Suggs may not play with a shoulder injury and DB Rolle may miss with a groin problem. The Baltimore running game had 151 yards vs Miami but was completely stuffed by Tennessee, being held to 50 yards in just 30 carries for 1.7 YPC (Pittsburgh's rushing D allows 80.2 YPC). Everyone talks about Flacco "managing the game" but let's note that he's completing 44.4 percent in his two playoff games, throwing for an average of just 148.0 YPG. With Mason as his only real option as a receiver, expect Pittsburgh's defense to be able to cover him (unlike Tennessee). Yes, Flacco has not thrown an INT or been sacked in 45 attempts but does one really think that will continue here in Heinz Field? When the Pittsburgh defense got a "second look" at Flacco in that Week 15 game at Baltimore, Flacco completed only 11-of-28 passes for 115 yards with two INTs (no TDs) and was sacked twice. He could only lead the Ravens to 12 FDs and could never get them in the end zone (managed three FGs). With the NFL's top seeds (Giants and Titans) both out of the playoffs plus the Colts and Manning falling in the wildcard round (the Pats never made the playoffs, despite an 11-5 record), the Steelers have to feel "this is their year." While I don't want to get ahead of myself, I surely expect them to win here. RB Willie Parker fought injuries all season but had 116 yards in Week 17 and last week vs the Chargers, ran 27 times for 146 yards with two TDs. Big Ben made some "big throws" in the San Diego game and any concerns regarding his concussion were laid to rest. Roethlisberger is 51-20 (.718) in the regular season (a winning percentage that trails only Tom Brady's .784 among active QBs) and 6-2 in his eight playoff starts. WR Hines Ward is a former Super Bowl MVP and the kind of "big game" receiver any team would covet plus there is that Pittsburgh defense, which with all due respect to Baltimore, was the league's best this year. My gut says Flacco's in for a very 'LONG' day.

Las Vegas Insider on the Pit Steelers



Weekend Wipeout Winner- NFL Championship Game

The Eagles and Cards both bring fantastic "storylines" to this NFC championship game. The Cards ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought (nine years) by winning the NFC West. It marked just the team's second playoff appearance since the Cards moved to Arizona for the 1988 season and it was the franchise's first division title since 1975 (won the NFC East while in St Louis). The Eagles took a different rout to this year's postseason, as they didn't clinch a playoff berth until Week 17 (Arizona clinched by Week 14). McNabb was famously benched at halftime of Philly's 36-7 Week 12 loss at Baltimore, a week after the team's 'ugly' 13-13 tie with the Bengals. McNabb and the Eagles were "left for dead" after that but they rebounded, beginning with a 48-20 rout of these Cards on Thanksgiving night in Philly. McNabb threw four TD passes in that game, while Brian Westbrook became the fourth player in NFL history with two rushing TDs, two receiving TDs and 100-plus rushing yards in a game. Phiily would go 4-1 SU and ATS the last five weeks and with some 'help,' plus a 44-6 Week 17 win over the Cowboys in Philly, qualified as the NFC's No. 6 seed. Both teams have been outstanding in the postseason. The Cards went 6-0 vs their NFC West opponents but just 3-7 against the rest of the league, losing their final five regular season games against non-division opponents (outscored 194-89). However, against the Falcons in the wildcard game, Arizona forced rookie QB Matt Ryan into early mistakes plus held Michael Turner and the Atlanta running game to just 60 yards on 24 carries (2.5 YPC). Last week at Carolina, the NFL's lone unbeaten home team, the Cards fell behind 7-0 but scored the next 33 points (led 27-7 at the half) on the way to a 33-13 win. The Cards had been 0-5 SU (1-4 ATS) in the Eastern time zone but the defense forced SIX turnovers (five Delhomme's INTs and a fumble). The Eagles went into Minnesota and won 26-14 (McNabb had just his second-ever 300-yard passing game of his postseason career) and Jim Johnson's defense held the Vikings scoreless in the second half. Jackson was confused at QB (just 15-of-35) and while many passed that off to his inexperience and inadequacies, but then Philly's D "did it again" last week in the Meadowlands (Eli was 15-of-29 with two INTs), holding the Giants out of the end zone in a 23-11 win. There is no denying the Cards are a strong home team but I believe it is Philly not Arizona which is this year's "team of destiny.' Kurt Warner can be rattled when pressured and few defenses are capable of doing that any better than Jim Johnson's defense. While many are claiming that Edgerrin James has "fresh legs," let me note that the Cards ran for just 86 yards vs the Falcons (3.1 YPC) and even in the blowout at Carolina, when they gained 145 rushing yards, only averaged 3.4 YPC. The Eagles own an excellent rush D and Johnson's blitz schemes WILL rattle Warner. As for the Cards' "suddenly stout defense," the Eagles are NOT the Falcons (rookie head coach and rookie QB) nor the Panthers, whose QB played one of the worst games in NFL playoff history and were led by a head coach who 'panicked' when down 17-7 (Carolina abandoned the run gaining only 75 yards but did average 5.0 YPC). Andy Reid ia s playoff veteran and teamed with McNabb, are in their fifth NFC championship game since 2001 (quite an achievement). McNabb didn't have a great game vs the Giants but he made the 'key ' plays (especially on 3rd downs) and while Westbrook has been a non-factor except for his 71-yard TD reception at Minnesota, I'm predicting he'll be a MAJOR factor here. Philly's receiving corps is pretty average "on paper" but let's not forget that McNabb's 3,916 passing yards this year represents a career high (he must have thrown those passes to someone!). Home dogs were terrible all season in '08 (28-41-3 or 40.6 percent ATS) and after the Chargers beat the Colts in SD on Jan 3 as a home dog, the Vikings and Dolphins lost as home dogs on Jan 4. This home dog continues that losing trend, as the Cards' 'bubble' gets burst, with the Eagles advancing to the Super Bowl with a double digit win.

Weekend Wipeout Winner Phi Eagles

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spritzer/CBB/Ill St-pts

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Steelers
Millionaire- Cards
Money Maker- Georgia
Insiders Circle- Illinois St

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob -

Rotation #807 Iowa (+13) 3-Stars at +12 or more, 2-Stars down to +11.
Rotation #829 Northern Arizona (-9 1/2) 2-Stars at -10 or less.

[Mr. IWS]

scott spreitzer

total dominator g.o.m pittsburgh over
conference championship g.o.y. Arizona

[Mr. IWS]

Al

At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Eagles and Cardinals 'over' the total.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Steelers/Ravens game.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats over Minnesota, as I look for Bill Carmody's men to snap their 4-game losing streak and hand Minnesota its second Big 10 Conference defeat.