Kentucky Derby play and discussion

[Luke]

One of these four horses will win the derby imo.If the winner doesnt come from one of these four I would be completely shocked .The odds at opening when they announced the field were:

Dunkirk 4-1

Friesan Fire 5-1

I Want Revenge 4-1

Pioneer of the Nile 4-1


Right now I can get at matchbook:

Dunkirk at 7-1

I want Revenge at 5-1

Friesan Fire at 7-1

and

Pioneer of the Nile at 8-1

So the opening odds will go up or down on the horses.I'm sure tomorrow some of the odds will go up and some will go down.I am going to try to lock in my bet tonight on one of these horses .I'll post my play later tonight when I get finished researching the race

[RedHottG2]

Looking forward to your pick Luke, I'm just going to tail you because I don't have time to research anything.

[RedHottG2]

I Want Revenge is OUT

http://sports.yahoo.com/rah/news;_y...ov=ap&type=lgns

[Mr. IWS]

GL on the Horsies today

[Luke]

I Want Revenge is OUT

http://sports.yahoo.com/rah/news;_y...ov=ap&type=lgns

Yeah I seen that .He was one of my two favorites.

At least that narrows it down to three horses for me now

[Luke]

With I want revenge out


The other 3 horses odds have dropped

Pioneer of the Nile dropped from 8-1 to 6.4 -1

Dunkirk dropped from 7-1 to 5.3-1

Friesan Fire dropped from 7-1 to 5-1


I will most likely be on Friesan Fire today he and I want revenge were my favorites to win this.

The bad part is the track will probably be wet today so all the research in the world may not matter because only 2 of the 20 horses have ever even ran on a wet track.

Will post later my final selections

[Luke]

I'm going with


Friesan Fire at 5-1

I dont think the other horses will be able to catch him from behind on such a wet track


Risking 100 to win 400 profit

I still think Pioneer of the Nile or Dunkirk stand a good chance but FF just gets the edge in my book

GL today everyone

[HUSKERPOWER]

heading down to place mine right about now

[Luke]

I'm going with


Friesan Fire at 5-1

I dont think the other horses will be able to catch him from behind on such a wet track


Risking 100 to win 400 profit

I still think Pioneer of the Nile or Dunkirk stand a good chance but FF just gets the edge in my book

GL today everyone

I am going to hedge a little bit with

Pioneer of the Nile .

Going to take him for 50 at 5.7 to 1

So I have :

100 to win 400 profit on Friesan Fire

and

75 to win 427.50 profit on Pioneer of the Nile


so I win 327.50 or 325 if either of my horses win

That is it for sure on my derby bets

[RedHottG2]

I'll do the same and thanks Luke!

[Luke]

I'll do the same and thanks Luke!

GL Mike

Hopefully we can bring this home

[Mr. IWS]

GL fellas!

[Luke]

If Dunkirk the only horse of the 3 I liked but didnt bet wins I might go run out in front or traffic


we'll know in about 20 minutes

[Mr. IWS]

What time does the race go off? Im flipping back from the Phillies game, and they still aint ready to run yet.

[Mr. IWS]

Figures.

My boys are on the derby and a fuckin 50-1 wins.

Bullshit.

[Luke]

Figures.

My boys are on the derby and a fuckin 50-1 wins.

Bullshit.

50-1? I could have got 100-1 on that horse on matchbook.


I dont know where that horse came from but he sure as hell was fast,he blew pioneer of the nile away on the straight away.I would have never guessed from watching his races he would have stood a chance in a million years

Pioneer of the Nile would have won if it wasnt for this longshot.I'm not mad I would have never bet this horse .Now if Pioneer would have lost to Dunkirk I would have been mad but these things happen.


Its not unheard of for this to happen I remember just a few years ago Giacimo won the derby at 47-1

Sorry Mike I hope I didnt cost you too much cash.

Lets try to get them in the Preakness

[Mr. IWS]

I clicked it on and that 50-1 horse was the only one in the picture. That jockey was already celebrating before he crossed the finish line. Looking like Usian Bolt in the Olympics.

[Luke]

I clicked it on and that 50-1 horse was the only one in the picture. That jockey was already celebrating before he crossed the finish line. Looking like Usian Bolt in the Olympics.

Matchbook had way different odds on the horses because anyone can put the odds up just like I was getting 6-1 and 7-1 on the horses that were 3-1 and 4-1 .lol like it mattered.

I think Matchbook had 3 different horses at 100-1.I think 100-1 was the highest you could put up on matchbook.

They were talking after the race about how if they ran the race 5 times 5 different winners would have won.Bull Shit that horse blew the otheres away he might have won 5 out of 5 times.

Just a side note the two best horses imo werent even in this race.Quality Road and I want Revenge are better than anyone in this field.Would they have won today? Maybe but Usian Bolt I mean Mine that Bird ran a hell of a race .



On to the Preakness

I had several wagers today that all involved 6, 16, and a bunch of others. At exactly 2 minutes to post (and about 7 beers into the afternoon) my buddy Tom and I put $10 WP wagers on every horse that was 30-1 or higher ($70 total).

Came home for a $393 winner.

[Mr. IWS]

Nice win Scotty.