Cardinals -1 -113
Reds -109 2 units
Dodgers -117 2 units
BOL today!
Cardinals -1 -113
Reds -109 2 units
Dodgers -117 2 units
BOL today!
Looking good (3-1) on your WHIP system plays JZ. I know it is probably what I think it is (comparing WHIPs), but could you break it down for me in case I am thinking wrong? Thanks.
Rooting for you JZ, have a great weekend
“It is only when you see a mosquito land on your testicles that you realize that there is always a way to solve problems without using violence.”
Thanks guys - hope you're enjoying the long weekend. (I am!)
Here's the breakdown on the WHIP System - A lot of math, so Excel skills help!
Starting Pitcher L3 IP times WHIP = SP Men on Base (MOB)
Anticipated Bullpen Innings = 9 - SP Innings.
BP MOB = Anticipated BP Innings times BP WHIP (Season)
Total MOB = SP MOB + BP MOB
Projected Score = MOB * 0.3801 - (This is a league average of the amount of runs scored divided by MOB.)
Then, to offset some teams tendencies to NOT cover that 0.3801 conversion rate, or to exceed it, I'll take the average runs for/against at the venue (road/home), combine that with the Projected Score from above, and average them (divide by two.)
I'll Play ON a home team with a run advantage >=0.50, and a road team with a run advantage >=1.50. For Home teams, if the vig is -140 or higher, I'll play on the -1 RL Formula. If the advantage is >=1.00 on the home team, I'll play for two units.
Filtering out games where the play AGAINST team has a SP in Sagarin top 30, I usually end up with two to four plays a day - mostly small faves, and almost always home teams.
If you're not doing this ------->right now, I wanna know why!
I'll do one game tomorrow on a step by step basis, if you would like.
GL today!
I am pretty sure I follow you. Yes, please do the step by step for a game tomorrow. Any way to use this to play totals?
Scott - funny you should ask, because I was thinking the same thing. I'll throw a couple of totals up tomorrow too - let's say the top three biggest differentials from my numbers v. the line. Tracking purposes only tho, OK?
JZ
Cardinals -1 -113 - Win
Reds -109 2 units - Loss
Dodgers -117 2 units - Win
2-1-0 +0.82
Damn Reds...
Sounds good on the totals scenario JZ.Originally Posted by JZ in Florida
As a Cubs fan I say "Damn Reds" to a Reds fan co-worker everyday, sorry for the loss but coincidentally funny you said it that way.
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