UFC 105 appears not only a mediocre card from this fan's perspective, but also is extremely uninteresting from a gambling perspective. As such, there is only one fight I'm remotely interested in betting, and due to some significant limitations on my time this week I'll apologize in advance but I'm only able to break down that one fight, which is Brandon "The Truth" Vera (+100) vs Randy "The Natural" Couture (-120).
At 46 years old, Randy Couture (16-10 MMA, 13-7 UFC) is a legend of the sport. Already a member of the UFC Hall of Fame, Couture's biggest strength outside of his legendary fight IQ is his wrestling; he was a three time All-American and four time Olympic Team alternate. "The Natural" is most dangerous from the clinch, where he is equally likely to punish you with dirty boxing as he is to dump you to the ground. Once he has you down, Couture holds top position well and depends on ground-and-pound punishment rather than submissions.
Couture traditionally displayed decent standup skills with good head movement throughout his career, but his striking skill, and especially his defensive skills, appear to have declined moderately as he looked supremely sub-par while getting picked apart on the feet by Antonio Rodrigo Nogeuria at UFC 102.
Once a highly touted heavyweight prospect, Brandon Vera (11-3 MMA, 7-3 UFC) was run out of the division by consecutive losses to Tim Sylvia and Fabricio Werdum. Now Vera is 3-1 as a light heavyweight with the lone loss via split decision to Keith Jardine at UFC 89.
"The Truth" is a strategic striker who efectively utilizes his length to traditionally fight using his Muay Thai skills from distance. Not many realize that Vera also has a strong wrestling background: he went to Old Dominion on a wrestling scholarship before dropping out to join the Air Force; there he was on the force's wrestling team and trained at the Olympic Training Center in Colorado Springs. Vera has also competed in Abu-Dhabi and has eight championships from Grappler's Quest.
A former two-time light heavyweight title holder, Couture returns to the 205-pound division for the first time since a 2006 loss to Chuck Liddell. The drop shouldn't be drastic for the 46-year-old, as Couture weighed just 220 pounds for his August headlining loss to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at "UFC 102: Couture vs. Nogueira."
I believe Vera to be a solid bet at these odds. I believe, as evidenced by Couture's previous outing, that Vera should be able to find significant success on the feet from range with his Muay Thai skills. I believe Vera's wrestling background and athleticism should help him dictate where the fight takes place -- while Couture will most certainly look to put Vera on his back, I believe Vera's Muay Thai training should mean danger for Couture's clinch work, and I believe Vera's underrated wrestling -- while definitely not better than Couture's, should help him neutralize Couture's gameplan and allow him to keep more of the fight standing where he has the most significant advantage.
If he can close ground on his opponent, and if Vera's wrestling does end up to be more towards the equalizer I'm expecting, Couture will most likely look to keep Vera pressed against the cage for much of this fight, to neutralize his range and his Muay Thai. Vera should still be dangerous with knees inside and with elbows over the top, but there is certainly a possibility that Couture can neutralize Vera against the cage for sufficient time to win a decision. But I believe Vera has several clean and clear paths to victory, compared to only essentially one for Couture. With decreased mobility and speed, Randy has apparently struggled defending looping blows to the side of his head in his past few fights, and I see Vera stumbling his legendary opponent with a well-placed shin or a heel to the side of the head before finishing with a flurry.
Vera +100, which you might also see listed as "EV," as "Even," or "-100" -- all mean the same, that for every dollar you risk, you'll win a dollar (as opposed to Couture -120 meaning you'll win a dollar for every $1.20 risked). I believe this to be a close fight, thus potentially a high-variance outcome. Still, I believe the betting line offers us an opportunity to bet what should be a moderate favorite at even odds, swinging the potential outcome in our favor. Still, if I'm right about Vera having a reasonable edge in this contest, you'd still expect to lose at minimum 35%-40% of the time, so once again practice good bankroll management techniques.
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Originally Posted by Luke
