Anthony Johnson hype train is off the tracks

[MMA_scientist]

He is now the favorite, with Kos coming in at +104. Seems like a very solid bet on Kos to me. AJ has looked great fighting low level strikers. Kos can strike too though and will have wrestling and grappling advantage. I don't know how anyone is giving rumble more than a puncher's chance here. I would have taken Kos up to -200.

Thoughts?

[SPX]

I'd agree that Kos is looking tempting, but I just know that if I bet on him he'll lose. AJ is looking good. Kos has definitely become a good striker, but I think AJ is a better striker. I also think that AJ's wrestling may very well be enough to neutralize Kos's so this is probably going to be a stand-up war.

I'm still considering a bet on Kos, but I'd really like to get slightly better odds. I really wish I had dropped a unit on AJ when he opened at +155.

[Mr. IWS]

I really think Kos will win if he just uses his wrestling, but he falls in love with his standup too much anymore, and that gives AJ the punchers chance he needs. I cant trust Kos to do that after the Thiago fight.

No bet for me.

[MMA_scientist]

Kos uses his striking only when he faces someone he thinks* he has a striking advantage on. He has not really fought any dangerous strikers besides GSP and Lytle, and he took Lytle down and GNP, and tried to take GSP down, but GSP has all-universe TD defense.

I think Rumble has better striking, or at least a better power-chin ratio. He has looked impressive, he just hasn't fought anyone very good. Kos would KO Tom Speer and Kevin Burns too. But I really think Koscheck is going to school him on the ground. Koscheck is an evolved wrestler, having survived playing guard against GSP, and now with a brown in jj. Rumble is not as good a wrestler and not nearly as good a grappler as Kos and has shown a weak gas tank, gassing badly and being submitted by Rich Clementi. He just fought a month ago and I am betting he will be overtrained and gas out, letting Kos sub or TKO him in the 2nd or 3rd. The fact that Rumble is gonna be worried about the TD is going to mean that he won't be pushing forward, which will make the likleyhood of a KO much less (though it is a definate possibility, just not 50% IMO, maybe 35%)

I just think the hype is way out of line, given the quality of opponents he has been beating. And to have him as the favorite is ludicris. Kos is definately top 10, probably top 5. To have an unranked guy as the favorite based on victories over b level competition is insane. I have raised my bet on Kos. The odds are too ridiculous for me not to.

[MMA_scientist]

I'd agree that Kos is looking tempting, but I just know that if I bet on him he'll lose. AJ is looking good. Kos has definitely become a good striker, but I think AJ is a better striker. I also think that AJ's wrestling may very well be enough to neutralize Kos's so this is probably going to be a stand-up war.

I'm still considering a bet on Kos, but I'd really like to get slightly better odds. I really wish I had dropped a unit on AJ when he opened at +155.

Rich Clemento was taking Johnson down repeatedly, even before he gassed out. Clementi is a lightweight. Kos is gonna take him down easy IF he wants to.

[SPX]

Kos uses his striking only when he faces someone he thinks* he has a striking advantage on. He has not really fought any dangerous strikers besides GSP and Lytle, and he took Lytle down and GNP, and tried to take GSP down, but GSP has all-universe TD defense.

Are you forgetting the Alves fight?

[MMA_scientist]

Kos uses his striking only when he faces someone he thinks* he has a striking advantage on. He has not really fought any dangerous strikers besides GSP and Lytle, and he took Lytle down and GNP, and tried to take GSP down, but GSP has all-universe TD defense.

Are you forgetting the Alves fight?

I forgot to include him in the list of dangerous strikers, but it still fits his MO. He tried many times to take Alves down. Alves was able to stuff his shots. Kos lost the fight, but tried to use a good game plan, it was also a short notice fight for Kos. I think he took the fight on like 3 weeks notice. GSP also fended off his shot, but that doesn't mean Rumble can. I am more influenced by the fact that he tried to take Alves down.

Also, he survived 3 rounds of striking with Alves, which flies in the face of the popular wisdom that Kos goes to sleep when he tries to strike. He seems smart enough to stay out of the power house against strong strikers... of course he still got caught by Thiago.

[SPX]

Okay, well I can't say I'm convinced, but fuck it. I've been thinking about putting a bet on Kos anyway.

High variance play here.

1u @ +105

[MMA_scientist]

Boom. Its not on me if you lose, but I will take credit if you win. I really do like Kos at those odds though.

I have 5u on kos and 5u on Rosholt (which is the max I ever bet)... apparently I am only betting ncaa champs for UFC 106.

[zY|]

Kos only tried to take Alves down after he was getting beat up on the feet, and those were desperation shots with no setup.

Anyways, I have an avatar bet on Kos over at Sherdog, so we'll see how that goes. :D

[SPX]

Boom. Its not on me if you lose, but I will take credit if you win. I really do like Kos at those odds though.

I have 5u on kos and 5u on Rosholt (which is the max I ever bet)... apparently I am only betting ncaa champs for UFC 106.

Ha ha, you don't get shit if I win muthafucka!

I really think this fight could go either way. Either Kos is going to prove why he's Top 5 or AJ is going to prove that he's an elite welterweight who belongs in title contention. Hopefully Kos will pull it out.

As for Rosholt, I can't ride with you on that one. I have a small bet on Grove. Considering that Rosholt is still pretty unproven in the big leagues I have to wonder why you would put such a large bet on him.

[MMA_scientist]

Boom. Its not on me if you lose, but I will take credit if you win. I really do like Kos at those odds though.

I have 5u on kos and 5u on Rosholt (which is the max I ever bet)... apparently I am only betting ncaa champs for UFC 106.

Ha ha, you don't get shit if I win muthafucka!

I really think this fight could go either way. Either Kos is going to prove why he's Top 5 or AJ is going to prove that he's an elite welterweight who belongs in title contention. Hopefully Kos will pull it out.

As for Rosholt, I can't ride with you on that one. I have a small bet on Grove. Considering that Rosholt is still pretty unproven in the big leagues I have to wonder why you would put such a large bet on him.

I like Rosholt because of his background and because of the stylistic matchup. Stud wrestler (probably the best wrestler inthe UFC right now), who is picking up the submission game very well. He also has a chin from hell (unfortunately, he likes to block punches with his face). Add to that the fact that Grove has no power, has a suspect chin himself, and hasn't shown a ton of submission prowess (though he won by submission against lower tier guys). Rosholt should take him down and pound on him. He has the chin and Grove lacks the power to finish him. So worst case scenario is he gets battered on his feet and then takes it down whenever he wants. Almeida was able to do it, and he lacks the takedown ability of Rosholt, though he clearly has better jiu jitsu. But I am confident that Rosholt can take him down and control him just as well as Almeida could.

For Grove to win he will either have to catch a sub from bottom, which I think is pretty unlikely (even though he won by guillotine and triangle before-based on what I hear about Rosholt, he is getting very very good on the ground) or he will basically have to pick him apart for 3 rounds and win a decision. I just don't think Rosholt could be dumb enough to let that happen, when he has the power to take it down whenever he wants. I know he was beaten by Miller by submission, but I do not put Grove and Miller in the same class in grappling. It happened early in the fight when Miller was still fresh enough to hold on and squeeze. Grove is 10-6 and just doesn't impress me that much.

In short, Kendall has to make something crazy happen to win, which I do not think he can do, given his lack of power, and my percieved grappling and submission advantage for Rosholt.

[SPX]

I can understand why you think Rosholt deserves to be the favorite, but to put the max you ever bet on him seems iffy. I reserve my big bets for guys like Fedor and Mayweather.

As for Grove, we'll see. I could see him using his reach and MT to keep Rosholt away from him but we'll see. I only have about .5u on him at +180. I felt he was being undervalued.

[Mr. IWS]

I can definatly see Rosholt get caught by a sub by Grove. Grove is just so lanky and long, and I think Rosholt, will take Grove down at will, ground and pound, but would not be suprised if he gets a triangle or something. If he doesnt, it should be an easy decision win for Rosholt.

[MMA_scientist]

I can understand why you think Rosholt deserves to be the favorite, but to put the max you ever bet on him seems iffy. I reserve my big bets for guys like Fedor and Mayweather.

As for Grove, we'll see. I could see him using his reach and MT to keep Rosholt away from him but we'll see. I only have about .5u on him at +180. I felt he was being undervalued.

I usually stay away from max bets against big favorites. I prefer to use my own knowledge to assess the stylistic matchups that I think are the most favorable. I could see whay you think he is undervalued, as he hasn't done anything yet, and his best win is Chris Leben. A lot of guys are hot on Rosholt simply because of his background... which we know doesnt always translate. That said, I just dont think Grove is the guy that can stop him.

[MMA_scientist]

I can definatly see Rosholt get caught by a sub by Grove. Grove is just so lanky and long, and I think Rosholt, will take Grove down at will, ground and pound, but would not be suprised if he gets a triangle or something. If he doesnt, it should be an easy decision win for Rosholt.

Could happen I guess, but I just don't think it is as likely as the line says. That said, he has been on bottom a lot and has never subbed or really threatened anyone from bottom. His one submission win over Belcher was from the top. Back in he small shows he subbed a few guys with triangles and guillotines. But having seen some of these shows and knowing the guys that fight in local shows, a lot of them a pretty embarrasingly bad- so I do not put too much stock into small show submissions.

I would feel differently if Kendall was training at a bjj oriented camp... but as it is he trains with team punishment, not exaclty known for slick grapplers. I do not expect his submission game to be significantly sharper since his previous outings.

[zY|]

What about that armbar he pulled out on Big Dog? I thought that was a wrap.

[MMA_scientist]

What about that armbar he pulled out on Big Dog? I thought that was a wrap.

I am drawing a blank on that. If he almost armbarred Almeida, that is impressive. Even though Almeida had a lot of rust and doesn't look like he cares to fight.

[SPX]

[quote=MMA_scientist]

What about that armbar he pulled out on Big Dog? I thought that was a wrap.

I am drawing a blank on that. If he almost armbarred Almeida, that is impressive. Even though Almeida had a lot of rust and doesn't look like he cares to fight.[/quote:344i5fgm]

Why do you say Almeida doesn't look like he cares to fight? I figure if he didn't want to fight then he wouldn't have come out of retirement. Certainly no one forced him too. And he went out there against Grove and did what he needed to do and got the W.

[zY|]

[quote=MMA_scientist]

What about that armbar he pulled out on Big Dog? I thought that was a wrap.

I am drawing a blank on that. If he almost armbarred Almeida, that is impressive. Even though Almeida had a lot of rust and doesn't look like he cares to fight.[/quote:t8awf8za]

I made you a gif.



Look at the angle, I thought his arm was about to snap. Almeida is a badass for remaining composed and not tapping to that.