TUF 10 Finale - Dec 5th - Discussion

[Mr. IWS]

[SPX]

Sweet Jesus, are they ever going to release the rest of the odds for this event? Have you guys looked on Bestfightodds lately? There's basically nothing there.

[Mr. IWS]

I checked sportsbook.com, they got nothing up either.

[SPX]

It seems like with Basketball and Football season going on they are completely neglecting MMA lines.

[zY|]

I've got a unit on Jones at -185 I made over a month ago.

[SPX]

I've got a unit on Jones at -185 I made over a month ago.

I actually took Hammill. Can't remember the odds. It's either +155 or +180. Put about .5u on him.

I think that Jones could definitely win this fight, but I feel kind of the way I did about Grove/Rosholt, i.e. Jones should be the fave but Hammill is being undervalued.

[MMA_scientist]

Has anyone seen the Jones/Obrien fight? I assume Jones won teh standup, but was he taken down? How was he doing before the guillotine? Was he trying to stand up if he got taken down? Or playing guard?

[SPX]

Has anyone seen the Jones/Obrien fight? I assume Jones won teh standup, but was he taken down? How was he doing before the guillotine? Was he trying to stand up if he got taken down? Or playing guard?

I saw it.

If I remember correctly, it never went to the ground, but I'd need to see it again to be sure. Jones won the stand up and eventually got the guillotine when he had O'Brien backed up against the fence.

It was a good performance from Jones, but honestly not as impressive as his performance against Bonnar.

[MMA_scientist]

I am defintely going to look at that fight. Hammill is a better version of Obrien IMO. I would like to see what Obrien's gameplan was. That said, Hammill might be worth an underdog bet if the line moves, which I think it will.

[SPX]

I am defintely going to look at that fight. Hammill is a better version of Obrien IMO. I would like to see what Obrien's gameplan was. That said, Hammill might be worth an underdog bet if the line moves, which I think it will.

I think the wrestling will cancel itself out. I don't think that Hamill has ever been on his back in the UFC and I've also noticed that, at least in his more recent fights, he tends to use his wrestling more to keep it on the feet than take it to the ground. Also, the vast majority of his wins have come via KO/TKO and his striking is underrated in my opinion.

I think this will mostly be contested on the feet and either Jones will outpoint Hamill or Hamill will land a good shot that either KOs Jones or dazes him enough for Hamill to get the TKO.

[zY|]

I've got a unit on Jones at -185 I made over a month ago.

I actually took Hammill. Can't remember the odds. It's either +155 or +180. Put about .5u on him.

I think that Jones could definitely win this fight, but I feel kind of the way I did about Grove/Rosholt, i.e. Jones should be the fave but Hammill is being undervalued.

Looks like we're going to war, fool!

Hamill is solid but he's really plodding and his standup is pretty limited ie: likes to throw bombs that I don't think are going to land. I don't think he's going to catch Jones in a submission either so I don't see the similarity to Grove/Rosholt. I don't think I'd take him until +200 or higher.

And until Jones loses or faces someone well out of his league I will not bet against a man who is so dynamic and can pull off shit like this.



And suplex Stephan Bonnar 80 times in a fight.

Here's an article discussing the awesomeness of Jon Jones.

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/7/23/95 ... o-chop-the

So basically, what I'm saying is, I'm sold on the Jon Jones hype and driving the wagon.

[SPX]

Hamill is solid but he's really plodding and his standup is pretty limited ie: likes to throw bombs that I don't think are going to land. I don't think he's going to catch Jones in a submission either so I don't see the similarity to Grove/Rosholt. I don't think I'd take him until +200 or higher.

Not similar in terms of style, but similar in that a lot of people just didn't give Grove a chance and I've heard others say the same thing about Hamill. I give Hamill about the same chance of winning as I gave Grove, though I think the method will be different.

So basically, what I'm saying is, I'm sold on the Jon Jones hype and driving the wagon.

Don't get me wrong. I like Jones, I just don't like his odds. Bodog has Hamill right now for +190. I think that's good value there. I'd probably take Jones at -150 or better but that ship never even came to port.

[MMA_scientist]

Bonnar is tough and Obrien is tough. So I would say Jones support is beyond the hype stage. He has beaten just as good of (better IMO) competition as Hamill.

Hamill is going to have better wrestling, should he choose to use it. He showed in the Munoz fight that he has some legit wrestling skills. He has poor control though, IMO. I see Jones stopping him similar to the way Rich Franklin did, just by battering him. But with his rock for a head, Hamill just keeps pressing forward, terminator style. He can be outpointed though too.

Should be an interesting fight, I am looking forward to it. I think Jones will win, but was hoping to see his reaction when taken down. It looks like we have not gotten to see him on the mat yet, which is always scary betting on a guy when you have no idea what will happen if he gets planted. I prefer my wrestlers to stand up, rather than try to play guard.

I will put a bet on Hammill if he goes over +200. Anything under that, and I am probably gonna lay off or take Jones.

[MMA_scientist]

Don't get me wrong. I like Jones, I just don't like his odds. Bodog has Hamill right now for +190. I think that's good value there. I'd probably take Jones at -150 or better but that ship never even came to port.

We're in the same boat here. I just give Hammill a little less of a chance to win than you. I will probably take him if he crosses over into +200 or so.

He could win with top control should he use it. I think he is too slow to catch Jones with a punch.

[SPX]

He could win with top control should he use it. I think he is too slow to catch Jones with a punch.

That's the funny thing about Hamill. He always looks so slow and clumsy, but he keeps catching people. Can he catch Jones? I don't know about that, but I guess we'll see. I also agree with the above Terminator analogy. Hamill just keeps coming forward . . . forward . . . forward . . . always applying pressure. I'd favor Hamill over Bonnar or O'Brien, I think, so to me this is Jones' biggest test to date.

[MMA_scientist]

I am looking at the Stann/Wallace fight. I have been trying to gather info on Wallace. He is an athlete. Record setting runnig back at DII college, 3x State champ in HS wrestling. Hasn't lost yet and has more experience than Stann at this point. Assuming a line ever comes out, I assume he will be a nice underdog.

Stylewise, any grappler presents a problem for Stann, who I am not sold on at all, though he did show some improvement in his striking in his last fight. But against another athletic guys with power of his own, who also has a top control game, I could see Wallace beating him. Hopefully the line will open favorably.

[Mr. IWS]

I like where your going with that. I think Stann is an ordinary fighter, It sounds like this guy will GnP here. From what Ive seen from Stann, he is really no thread to get a sub.

I dont know anything about Wallace either.

[SPX]

Fuck Brian Stann!

That guy cost me $50 in his fight with Cantwell. . .

[MMA_scientist]

^^

Here is your chance to get it back! I am not impressed with Stann at all. I don't know this Walalce guy, but have been watching some of his fights. He has already beaten a godo striker in Antwain Britt. He has a submission game and takedowns. If the line opens with Wallace as a considerable underdog (which I think it will) I am gonna put a small play on Wallace, I have talked myself into it.

The other fight I am looking at is Veach/Edgar. Veach is a D1 wrestler, but not quite as good as Edgar. But close enough to where the wrestling should cancel each other out. Edgar has godo tight boxing too though. Anyone knwo anything about Veach other than what we saw in his UFC debut?

[SPX]

Here is your chance to get it back! I am not impressed with Stann at all. I don't know this Walalce guy, but have been watching some of his fights. He has already beaten a godo striker in Antwain Britt. He has a submission game and takedowns. If the line opens with Wallace as a considerable underdog (which I think it will) I am gonna put a small play on Wallace, I have talked myself into it.

Hmm, I like the way you think! I'm going to look into this guy. Stann hits hard but that's about all he's got, although it's worth bearing in mind that he's been training with Greg Jackson and apparently that training has been paying off for him. Still can't believe he beat Cantwell. That was my most confident pick on the card.

The other fight I am looking at is Veach/Edgar. Veach is a D1 wrestler, but not quite as good as Edgar. But close enough to where the wrestling should cancel each other out. Edgar has godo tight boxing too though. Anyone knwo anything about Veach other than what we saw in his UFC debut?

I didn't see Veach's debut, but I have to believe that Edgar will win this fight. I see him getting a title shot after another couple of fights. He's a top 10 LW easily. Top 5, maybe? Honestly I don't even see how this fight makes sense.