TUF 10 Finale - Dec 5th - Discussion

[MMA_scientist]

I think Edgar will be the obvious favorite, and I agree that he is top 10 lw. I am probably going to make a play on him if the line is not too steep. But I would still like to know a little something about Veach. I know he wrestled at Eastern Illinois (where Hughes wrestled) and is a HIT Squad fighter.

All of these HIT Squad fighters are getting fights in the UFC, and so far they have not looked to deserve it much, it looks more like a nice connection. But a couple of guys have looked decent... but not liek top flight fighters like Edgar.

[zY|]

First of all, Brian Stann is a legitimate Silver Star wearing war hero. If you bet against Brian Stann you are betting against America.

That said, he's good but not the most talented fighter. His standup is decent and he has a bit of power. This is evident in the 3rd Cantwell fight, as it played out similar to Arlovski/Sylvia 3, with neither man willing to commit out of respect for the other's power. His ground game is pretty lacking obviously, getting tapped to a bulldog kimura by Krzysztof Soszynski, who obviously has an unnatural hatred for vowels.

Another thing is I don't really agree with using Greg Jackson as any kind of favorable analysis. The guy is a top trainer for sure, but I don't think he's really any better than any other top camp. I believe most of his aura comes from after UFC 94, when Georges St. Pierre revealed their detailed and intricate gameplan for dismantling BJ Penn. The thing about this though, GSP is a complete anomaly who executes gameplans better than anyone in the sport. This will not translate to most fighters at all. Also, Jackson is not infallible. Look at his gameplan for Rashad, a wrestler, to stand with Machida and try to catch his timing (aka beat him at his own game.) Horrible. Yeah, it can have positive results if you're fighting Chuck Liddell or Forrest Griffin, but against an elite striker like Lyoto Machida that was just a terrible, terrible plan and it showed. And you also have guys like Leonard Garcia who train under Jackson and just come out and throw huge windmills the entire fight with no backup plan. Jackson is top notch, but he's only as good as his fighters. It's not like they gain some special power by training with him. He also admits this freely in interviews.

I don't really know much about Rodney Wallace, except that he's athletic and has a decent submission game. From what I've heard though, he's very raw and not exactly ready for the UFC yet. He would probably be served better on like a Strikeforce Challenger's card ala Tyron Woodley. Anyways that's just my take on it.

Of course, per the usual, this all could change depending on how the oddsmakers see it.

As for Veach/Edgar, I see this as a terrible mismatch and Edgar should completely steamroll Veach.

Veach is a very raw fighter who I don't expect to offer much to a top fighter like Edgar. If you watch his UFC debut, he actually won by a shit stoppage after basically getting his ass beat for most of the round. He was almost caught in an anaconda choke in the first minute, then he was dropped by strikes from Matt Grice and was taking some serious, serious ground and pound. Grice was passing his guard at will and laying hands on him easily while standing. He only won because he managed to land a wild counter left hook and drop Grice and the fight was immediately stopped, although it was a similar situation to where Veach was dropped earlier and was a really horrible stoppage imo. Most of the fight was Veach being aggressive and shooting for takedowns with minimal setup, most of which were stuffed.

[MMA_scientist]

^^

Thanks for the input on Wallace. I am still going to put a small underdog bet on him if the odds are good, though. Stann is not ready for the big time either, IMO. He got thrust there because of his hero status.

As for Jackson, I totally agree. I do look at a fighter's camp though, not because of the trainers, but because of the sparring partners. This makes a big difference. You see this phenomenon all the time in wrestling rooms across america. There will be a stud or two in a few weight classes, and all of teh sudden, the guys in weight classes around them are good too. Training partners matter. I don't know where Guida was before, but teh fact that I don't know probably means it was nowhere, and that he was the best guy there. Suddenly being pushed by guys better than you makes a difference. That said, I don't think it will make much a difference in this fight. (Wait a minute, who said anything about Jackson?)

The input on Veach is what I was looking for, I will probably take Edgar unless the line opens out of the universe.

Thanks.

[SPX]

(Wait a minute, who said anything about Jackson?)

I did. Because that's the only conceivable reason that I can come up with for Stann beating Cantwell. I don't think he was training with Greg before he came to the UFC, but I could be wrong.

[zY|]

One thing about Veach though, he is certainly tenacious and if anything, showed a lot of heart in that fight.

[MMA_scientist]

(Wait a minute, who said anything about Jackson?)

I did. Because that's the only conceivable reason that I can come up with for Stann beating Cantwell. I don't think he was training with Greg before he came to the UFC, but I could be wrong.

if I recall correctly, he was at extreme couture. A jump to Jackson's probably isn't gonna help there.

Where did I get Guida? its not even the same event.

[Mr. IWS]

Finally, some lines.

Im suprised Marcus Jones is a -205.

[SPX]

Shit, I'm suprised that Kimbo and Houston opened dead even. I thought Houston would be like -200 or worse. Unfortunately, the line is already moving and I can't place any bets until I get home.

[MMA_scientist]

Houston is already -150


I am bummed that Edgar/Veach came in so steep. I might still make the bet though. He is -460 on Bookmaker though...

There are alot of good underdogs here, for the value bettor. Hamill seems like a good value, Madsen could be a good value too. I don't really bet that way though.

The only fight I am betting is Howrd to beat Hallman. 3u.

[SPX]

I am bummed that Edgar/Veach came in so steep. I might still make the bet though. He is -460 on Bookmaker though...

If Houston's line keeps moving then I'll probably wait for Bodog to post their lines and put him in a parlay with Edgar.

There are alot of good underdogs here, for the value bettor. Hamill seems like a good value, Madsen could be a good value too. I don't really bet that way though.

Hamill at +250 definitely has value. I put .57u on him at +175. I definitely am wishing I had waited now but I didn't expect so much money to come in on Jones.

The only fight I am betting is Howrd to beat Hallman. 3u.

Interesting. If Hallman's line keeps getting better then I'm thinking he's good for .5u. Howard has not really impressed me. I've watched 3 or 4 of his fights and all of his performances have been rather lackluster. Also, he's too small for WW. He should definitely be fighting at 155.

[MMA_scientist]

I didn't get a chance to place my bet on Howard at -215. It already moved to -240.

Hallman is over the hill... I was on teh fence at -215, at -240 I don't know that I wm going to be making that bet

[SPX]

He may be over the hill, but he's also 6-1 in his last 7 fights, including 4 first round finishes (5 if you count his win via DQ). I understand that the level of competition that he was facing may be suspect, but several of those fights were in the IFL or Strikeforce.

I see he's at +190 and I hope that line keeps moving because I will bet it.

[MMA_scientist]

Howard is on a win streak of his own, against better competition though.

Hallman's win streak is all paper.

His opponent's records for the streak:

11-9
6-5
11-7
3-5
1-2

Cmon. Best winning % is 61% , the average is 48%. That streak is against sub .500 comp.

[SPX]

I hear you. I think Howard should be the favorite here, but nothing over -150. Hallman's more experienced and he's only 34. There are still plenty of competitors who are doing well around that age.

I went ahead and dropped .5u on Hallman at +198.

I guess I missed the boat on Houston unless his line comes down because I'm not taking him at the current odds.

[zY|]

I'm not betting on any of this garbage.

I wish I had funds in my bookmaker account earlier. Kimbo opened at +200 on Sportsbook. That would've been a sick ass arb.

[Luke]

Me missed again but whats new

[Luke]

I'm not betting on any of this garbage.

I wish I had funds in my bookmaker account earlier. Kimbo opened at +200 on Sportsbook. That would've been a sick ass arb.

you can get Kimbo at +220 at matchbook and thegreek

[SPX]

Here's what I got:

Matt Hamill -- .57u to win 1u

I'm really kicking myself on this one right now as his line has greatly improved from the time I bet on him. The reasons I went with Hamill are as we discussed on the forum previously. He's strong as hell, has real KO power, and his only legit loss is to Rich Franklin. I do agree that Jones should be the favorite, but not to the extent that he is. He may be able to outclass Hamill all night, but if Hamill connects and hurts Jones then I think that could be all she wrote for the Jones hype train.


Kimbo Slice -- .25u to win .65u

Alexander opened at -115 and if I could've gotten some of that action then I definitely would have. But by the time I was able to place bets his line had moved significantly and I didn't feel comfortable betting on him anymore. Kimbo's line continued to move up. Personally, I think that Alexander will go out and be ultra-aggressive and end this one early. But I have a vague suspicion that Kimbo's gameplan might surprise us. If his trainers are smart, they will have had him training his ground game extensively because if Kimbo could actually take Houston down then Houston may not be able to get back up. That's what I'm hoping for. Either way, it's a small bet.


Dennis Hallman -- .5u to win .98u

Hallman's an aged competitor, but he's only 34. In his last 7, he is 6-1 with 4 first round subs. Now allow me to add a caveat: The competition that he has been fighting has definitely been lackluster. Still, I think that's impressive as most of these wins were either in the IFL or Strikeforce. As for Howard, he has not impressed me. I've watched several of his fights and he seems to be okay in all areas, but not particularly good in any of them. He doesn't really have KO power and I don't think he's going to get a sub against a vet like Hallman. Also, I think he may have a hard time outwrestling him as well. On the other hand, Howard is younger and has been fighting better competition. Surprisingly, Hallman opened as a slight favorite, though his line moved quickly and significantly. But it seems the oddsmakers were thinking along lines similar to myself. I'm not saying he necessarily deserves to be the favorite, but I don't think he deserves to be +210 either.

[Mr. IWS]

GL tonight SPX.

Only thing I got is a "you pay for the pizza" bet with my boy. I got Houston.

[SPX]

Mmm, pizza.