I have 3u on BJ at -190 and 2u on Kenflo at -170.
If I can get good odds then I'd also like to take Mir, Fitch, and maybe Belcher.
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My one concern is Mir being able to get Kongo down. He's never shown really great wrestling. But all in all, I think Mir should win this fight. Kongo does well against fellow strikers but doesn't know how to handle anyone with a ground game.Originally Posted by IWS Zak
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I can see him getting the takedown similar to how he got it against Hardonk, hands up high, throw the lazy kick and get it that way.
Mir doesnt have the explosive wrestling like Cain/Brock do to just blast through a double, but I think he can still get him down.
If he can get him down then he'll easily win.
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I'm not worried Mir will try to stand. He prefers to grapple. I am worried that he does not have the takedown ability to make it happen. Even though Mir was a HS state champion wrestler, he hasn't shown much in the way of TD's. I would't be surprised to see him pull guard. I am just worried he will get the lights turned off before he gets him clinched. Mir has been lifting weights and that should help his explosiveness and clinch work.
But Kongo has never been submitted. For as crappy as he is on the ground, he has managed to survive down there. Of course, he has never fought a submission guy either.
I will have to see the odds. I expect it to be pretty close to a pick em. I will probably take Mir, as long as he is close to even or better.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
I will be at this event live.
Don't have any bets on it yet, I should've taken BJ when he came out but I didn't. I still may take him even at these odds. I don't think Diego has many ways to win.
The Mir/Kongo fight is pretty cut and dry. Mir gets him down he wins, he doesn't he loses. I agree with MMA Scientist in that I wouldn't be surprised if Mir may try to stand with Kongo, which would just be a colossal, tremendous mistake. Also, I'm not sure if pulling guard will get it done either. Kongo has been shown to have some disgusting ground and pound, and Mir is very susceptible to ground and pound and nowhere near as durable as a guy like Cain Velasquez. When he gets hit hard he folds. If Kongo were to hit Mir with that shot he hit Cain with in the first round of their fight, Mir might literally die.
I'm interested to see how this fight plays out, but I can't say I'll bet on it until I see the odds. I'd like to get Kongo as an underdog to be honest.
Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shit
I don't know why but I literally laughed out loud when I read this. . .
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I am STILL not sold that Mir is a top HW. I think the Nog fight was an aberration... I would still take Nog in a rematch (I lost more money on that fight than any other fight in history). Up until the Nogeira fight, Mir had done exactly nothing to deserve the respect he gets.
Tha said, I don't think Kongo is great either. I will probably make small play on whoever is the underdog if the odds are right.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
I think Mir might beat Nog's ass again. It's not like Randy wasn't tagging him at will. Mir hits much harder than Randy and is a bit faster as well.
Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shit
After some thought, I am going to take Florian.
Guida is tough and keeps coming forward, but I think Kenny has the chops to either stifle his cage pressing tactics, or catch him coming in. I don't think he will let Guida do a Sherk to him. Thoughts? This seems like a good matchup for Florian... better standup, could possible sub him from bottom, and some pretty good takedown defense. Convince me Guida can beat him.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Not even gonna try to convince you. I think it will look like the Stevenson fight.
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^^ My thoughts exactly.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
My fear with the Guida/Florini fight, is that Guida just hangs all over Florini for 3 rounds, doesn’t do shit, but the judges give him the fight, similar to what he did to Nate Diaz.
Now I don’t think Nate is in Ken-Flo’s class, but Guida is a fuckin wet blanket when he fights, and I think that will be his gameplan, to just hang on and win with “octagon control”
^^ You were unable to convince me, I just put 5u on KFlo at -190. I though about waiting, but I think the line might move and make it worse.
I just dont think he will be able to keep Kenny pressed up against the cage liek he did with Diaz. Diaz had him in some trouble a couple of times, and I think the chances that he can just hang for dear life for the bell for 15 full minutes is slim. He can only win this fight by top control decision. There is no chance he will finish Florian. None.
Florian striking is much better than Diaz's and he is stronger in the clinch too. Not to mention that FLorian might submit him from his back, or even take Guida down. I see a RNC win in round 3. Guida has come close, but never been able to beat anyone very good.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Dont get me wrong, I think Florian will win, I just hate the way Guida fights from a betting perspective. He usually goes into his fights with less tools in the toolbox, but he seems to go to a decision a lot with his style, and the fights are close.
the way we have seen judging lately, I dont want my money in the judges hands.
But gun to my head, I would bet Florian.
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