UFC 107 - Dec 12th - Discussion

[SPX]

My fear with the Guida/Florini fight, is that Guida just hangs all over Florini for 3 rounds, doesn’t do shit, but the judges give him the fight, similar to what he did to Nate Diaz.

Now I don’t think Nate is in Ken-Flo’s class, but Guida is a fuckin wet blanket when he fights, and I think that will be his gameplan, to just hang on and win with “octagon control”

I agree that it's a concern. Florian somehow bypassed all the big wrestlers in the division en route to a title total. He never had to fight Sherk again, or Edgar, or Maynard, or Griffin. The closest he came was Stevenson, so admittedly, I'm a little worried about that.

Nevertheless, my money's on Florian as I feel that overall he's a better fighter.

[SPX]

Guida has come close, but never been able to beat anyone very good.

I honestly think he beat Griffin. I know the judges saw it differently, but on my scorecard he beat Griffin pretty clearly. It was close, but Guida won.

[SPX]

By the way, in case no one noticed Mir/Kongo is up at 5dimes.

Mir: -155
Kongo: +155

Unfortunately I don't have a 5dimes account so I just have to sit back and wait until it opens at one of my books.

[MMA_scientist]

[quote=IWS Zak]

^^ You were unable to convince me, I just put 5u on KFlo at -190.

How much is your unit? assuming its $100, do you wager $190 to win $100 ($950/$500)?

Just curious.[/quote:1vsfwy8x]


My unit varies depending on my bankroll, it is always 1/100th of my bankroll (even though I advise 1/50th would be ok). Right now my bankroll is $3000 and I am using bookmaker.com so my unit is $30 (they have a $250 max limit). I do not bet "amount to win" I always bet "amount to risk". So I risk 5 units ($150) to win $78.

I always bet amount to risk, flat bets, no parlays. I never risk more than 5% of my bankroll on a fight. I break my own rule every now and again, when the line moves. I bet 6u on Koscheck when he went underdog. My average bet is probably 3u.

[MMA_scientist]

Dont get me wrong, I think Florian will win, I just hate the way Guida fights from a betting perspective. He usually goes into his fights with less tools in the toolbox, but he seems to go to a decision a lot with his style, and the fights are close.

the way we have seen judging lately, I dont want my money in the judges hands.

But gun to my head, I would bet Florian.

I would agree with that. That said, the only way Guida can win is by control decision. Florian has shown his TD defense has improved dramatically since the Sherk fight. Clinching him on the cage is a bad idea too because he can cut you from close range with his elbows (like he did to Leben on TUF, when he was pinned up against the cage, he also did to Sherk from bottom), and has some pretty good knees. Guida does not have the exlplosive shot that Sherk has, he always bobs and weaves his way into a clinch, runs the guy into the cage, and then leans until they fall over of give their back. I do not think he will even be able to take Florian down this way. If he leans on him, I think Florian will be smart enough to let his hands go on the breaks... do enough to get a decision if he cannot stop him.

Even if Guida manages to take it 3 rounds, I still think Florian has a 50% chance to take the decision. Florian is smart too, he is going to be ready for Guida's tactics. Of all the ways this fight can end (Florian by cut, TKO, KO, sub, dec. or Guida by dec) I just don't think Guida has the tools to get it done.

After the Randy/Vera leaning on teh cage decision fiasco, I think the judges are going to be gunshy about giving a decision based solely on octagon control (my god, Vera got hosed).

[Mr. IWS]

After reading this, it really makes you wonder if Mir is still dazed from the beating Lesnar put on him. Congo will knock his fuckin head off. I hope Im wrong, Im a huge Mir fan, but if this is really his strategy, it will be a short night IMO.

Whilst Kongo is renowned for his striking abilities, Mir is confident that he could contend with the hard hitting French striker on the feet and views this as a great opportunity to showcase some striking abilities of his own.

"I mean I wasn't supposed to beat Nogueira standing and look what happened there. I'm confident that I can strike with Cheick [Kongo] and make it competitive, my punches are a lot quicker than his, plus I know how to work angles better, trust me I know how to shut guys off. The thing is if I were to go out there and submit him in less than a minute It would prove nothing, a true martial artists would want to challenge himself and the challenge presented in front of me right now is to out-strike someone who on paper is the better striker."

When asked if he would re-sign with the UFC once the remainder of his current contract expires, Mir revealed no intentions of signing elsewhere.

"Not really, the UFC have been good to me over the years, I don't see any reason for me to leave or go elsewhere. I want that rematch with Brock before I even think that far down the line."

Mir has been known to be critical of Fedor Emelianenko in the past, the man who many regard as the number one heavyweight in MMA, Mir however tends to disagree with this notion.

"No disrespect to Rogers but other than Arlovski he hasn't really beaten anyone noteworthy. I don't see how beating a guy like that solidifies Fedor as being number one pound for pound. I would still rank guys like Anderson [Silva], Miguel Torres and St Pierre above Fedor as far as pound for pound rankings go. Do I think I could beat Fedor? of course, but now I'll never get the opportunity to prove it since [Fedor's] made it clear that he wants no part of facing real competition."

[zY|]

LOL Frank Mir.

Yeah his striking looked pretty good against Nogueira but he was basically throwing combinations at a stationary target. There's nothing natural or dynamic about his striking at all, and I hope for his sake he's just posturing, because Kongo will eat his face standing.

[SPX]

Mir has been known to play mind games in the past and I have to assume that this is what this is. Otherwise, he's just retarded.

Also, LOL at Miguel Torres being ahead of Fedor in the P4P rankings.

[Mr. IWS]

Sounds like he is playing mind games like SPX said.

"Obviously his wrestling is not the best wrestling," Mir said of Kongo. "The fight with Cain Velasquez he was getting mauled for 15 minutes ... very poor technique, had no answer. ... No one is shocked by the fact that his ground game is amongst some of the worst ground game we have in the heavyweight division. I hope to take advantage of that. I feel that I'm pretty decent on the ground. ... I feel that if I get on the ground it's to my advantage, to win the fight."

[Mr. IWS]

I was reading on that Tatame brazillian site, that Robert Drysdale was saying that Mir is up to 286lbs.

This guys obsession with getting big for his rematch against Lesnar could wind up blowing up in his face.

I would think he would want to retain his quickness in this fight, to get close enough to Kongo to get a takedown.

[zY|]

Shit he better be lower than 286 right now or his ass ain't makin weight.

[SPX]

Shit he better be lower than 286 right now or his ass ain't makin weight.

Eh, it's only 20 lbs.

[MMA_scientist]

The more I read from Mir, the more I want to bet on Kongo.

His gas tank was already crap, at 285, I dont think he will last 90 seconds before gassing out.

[MMA_scientist]

undercard lines out now.

I got my bets in today, 4 favorites. 5 units each on Palhares, Florian, Fitch, and Hendricks.

[Mr. IWS]

Mir looked pretty big in the countdown show, compared to that last fight with Lesnar. I wonder how much that will affect his already questionable cardio.

[Mr. IWS]

I got down on BJ last night at -240

[SPX]

I got down on BJ last night at -240

Sweet action!

So far I've got:

2.5u on BJ @ -190
2u on Kenflo @ -170
.75u on Belcher @ +105

[SPX]

I got down on BJ last night at -240

Sweet action!

So far I've got:

2.5u on BJ @ -190
2u on Kenflo @ -170
.75u on Belcher @ +105

Okay, final bets:

4.75u on BJ to win 2.25u
2u on Kenflo to win 1.18u
.75u on Belcher to win .79u

[Mr. IWS]

Goin huge on BJ. I like it.

GL tonight man.

[SPX]

Goin huge on BJ. I like it.

GL tonight man.

Good luck to us all.