SPORTS WAGERS
Juan Diaz wins by 12 round decision +1.55 over Paul Malignaggi.
Close fight to call. One thing for sure here, no knockouts are expected in this one, as the soft-handed Paulie “The Magic Man” Malignaggi faces off against Juan “Baby Bull” Diaz. This is the rematch of a hotly contested decision won by Diaz where most experts thought Paulie seemed to have done enough to win. I see this fight going in the same direction as the first on. Diaz will push the pace and keep moving forward and Paulie will circle the ring with his slick-boxing style. Even though Paul Malignaggi showed how to beat Juan Diaz, he still came on the losing end of it. Now Diaz possesses that information and will definitely be ready for Paulie’s game plan. I expect Diaz to be more focused and better prepared this time around as he will earn a unanimous and convincing decision. Play: Diaz by decision +2.55 (Risking 2 units).
Antonio Diaz +6.00 over Victor Ortiz
After hearing Ortiz’s post fight interview in his last time out, I simply cannot afford to miss the boat on this one. “I have some thinking to do and I don't think I deserve to get hit like this”. This was following his brutal loss to Marcos Maidana last June in Los Angeles where this kid simply quit. I am very surprised to see Victor Ortiz fight again as he clearly exposed his mental toughness to the whole world. For a 22-year-old fighter to say stuff like that in his prime says a lot about his will to compete. Now he faces his mentor and childhood idol in Antonio Diaz. The strength for Diaz will be his size, experience and yes; his warrior presence in the ring. It is clear that Diaz is nowhere near what he used to be after so many wars, but this is all about going against a fighter that has some very hard questions to answer. Play: Diaz +6.00 (Risking 2 units).
Diego Sanchez +2.50 over BJ Penn
Folks, get ready for this one. Diego “The Nightmare” Sanchez vs BJ Penn, it doesn’t get any better than this! Diego Sanchez is simply balls to the wall for five straight minutes each and every round. He’ll look to wear Penn out swarming him with strikes and relentless takedown attempts. Penn’s strength & conditioning training with the infamous Marv Marinovich paid off against Kenny Florian. Penn was in the best shape of his life and he’s brought back Marv for this one. But come on, Diego is no Kenny Florian and this is no three-round fight. On my watch, as long as BJ doesn’t win by stoppage, he will lose each and every single time. Now on paper, BJ Penn shouldn’t have too much trouble winning this fight. His boxing and jiu-jitsu are superior to Sanchez’s and his takedown defense is typically stellar when he’s not facing GSP. But I just see Sanchez coming out ready to feast on BJ and prove to the whole world where he truly belongs; right there as the world champion. This fight will be at 155 pounds, a division where Diego has looked nothing less than impressive as he came all the way down from the 170 division in his last three fights and dominated. This will be too much for BJ Penn to handle, Diego Sanchez in pretty dominating fashion. Play: Sanchez +2.50 (Risking 2 units).
Frank Mir wins inside distance +1.02 over Cheick Kongo
This is Frank Mir’s first fight since being disrespected in the middle of the ring, on national TV and in front of the whole world by Brock Lesnar. Wow, I wouldn’t wanna be the first one facing him after this humiliating night versus the freak of nature. Mir is currently trying to make his way back toward the top of the division in hopes of a rubber match with Brock Lesnar after being completely dominated at UFC 100 at his own game. Kongo is looking to rebound from his loss to Cain Velasquez at UFC 99 after nearly punching Velasquez out in each of the three rounds, but eventually succumbing to Velasquez's wrestling background. Well I have some bad news for you Cheick, you are facing one of the best Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialists in the UFC and if Kongo fights like he’s known to fight, this one won’t be too long. There's no mystery on how each fighter will approach this fight. Mir isn't going to come out and try to prove that he has K-1 level striking, as he's said in past fights. He'll be looking to work his exceptional ground game to transition from submission to submission to catch Kongo's lengthy limbs. Kongo will want to work his reach and power from a distance with the help of his Mai Thai background to punish Mir. It's a simple, straightforward fight that has a lot of interesting questions that will be answered. Kongo's inability to block takedowns has been the sole reason he isn't an undefeated fighter and the reason why he will lose come Saturday night. Mir by easy submission. Play: Mir inside distance +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
Adrian Diaconu +2.60 over Jean Pascal
The first time these two met, Adrian Diaconu had previously fought once in a span of 3 years and still managed to lose a very close decision. This time however, rust won’t be a factor. “I improved everything; my speed, my footwork, I’m smarter and I feel better. I trained so hard and this time theres no excuses.” Adrian is a bull, he always gives up height advantage to his opponents but Teddy Atlas said it best, he is the closest thing to Mike Tyson when styles are compared as this guy can literally thump. I don’t get it, Jean Pascal defended his light heavyweight title on September the 25th in a hard fought bout against Silvio Branco and two months later they ask him to step in the ring against the shark? I expect two things to possibly happen, fatigue due to overtraining or an ineffective preparation caused by the lack of time in between. With all that aside, I really believe Adrian has the better chance of getting crowned at the end of the night. He gave Jean Pascal fits in their first encounter by rocking him a couple times and almost putting his lights out. Calling the upset, Adrian Diaconu comes out on top, possibly via a referee stoppage. Play: Adrian Diaconu +2.60 (Risking 2 units).
Stan Lisowski
BJ PENN (14-5-1) -285 vs. Diego Sanchez (23-2) +225
Lightweight Champion Penn is the #1 ranked lightweight fighter in the world while Sanchez is fighting for the third time at this weight, having beaten Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida leading up to this match. In what is arguably his toughest fight to date, Diego figures to push the pace as BJ has a history of cardio issues. However, having said that, much of Penn's issues with conditioning have not come at this weight, where at 155 he hasn't lost an opponent at this weight in almost 8 years. Penn also has enlisted that aid of a cardio/conditioning expert to no doubt try to offset the furious pace Sanchez will try to impose upon him. Sanchez has an advantage when those he presses, having a tendency to back down. Don't believe Penn will back down and given the defense he put up in his last fight against Kenny Florian, he should be readily prepared for whatever Diego brings. While this should be a very good fight, the reality is that Sanchez hasn't fought a fighter of this caliber before.
PICK BJ PENN
FRANK MIR (12-4) -194 vs. CHEIK KONGO (24-5-1) +154
Mir is a 2x heavyweight champ looking to erase the memory and images of the pounding he took in his last fight, a brutal loss to Brock Lesnar. Mir has stated that he will stay on his fight for this fight, but in reality, that really shouldn't be his game-plan. Kongo's weakness was on display in his last match where Cain Velasquez continually took him to the ground. That loss stopped a string of 3 straight technical knockouts for Kongo, so regardless of what Mir says, he doesn't want to keep this fight upright and face the striking power of the big Frenchman. Mir should want this on the ground as fast as he can so that he can utilize his world-class wrestling skills against the seemingly one-dimensional striker. If Mir's ego gets in the way as it did in his last match, he could conceivably get knocked out. Belief here is that he plays it smart and uses his ground game to his advantage as Kongo has never faced an opponent with the ground submission skills that Mir has got. (FYI-It's +120 Mir wins by submission on the prop line)
PICK MIR
KEN FLORIAN (14-4) -203 vs. CLAY GUIDA (25-7) +163
Guida is a relentless, cardio machine, full of constant energy and drive, which always makes for a great fight. Florian, he of the sick elbow strikes, is a skilled Muay Thai and Jiu Jitsu expert. Ken-Flo is looking to come back off of a loss in his last fight, which not only broke a string of 6 consecutive victories, but it also was the first defeat in 3 years for the native New-Englander. Guida is also looking to make amends for his last match, a tremendous bout with Diego Sanchez, which won those fighters "Fight of the Night" bonuses. Florian is a deliberate tactician, while "The Carpenter" resembles a wild caveman, always moving and in motion with hair flying. Guida has the ability to absorb a ton of punishment, while it seems he is incapable of tapping out as many skilled submission experts have failed to make him quit. In what has the makings of a most entertaining fight, Florian should be able to inflict enough damage with his elbows and knees on Guida to sway the judges in a 3 round war.
PICK FLORIAN
Originally Posted by IWS Zak
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