UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

[SPX]

I figure it's not too early to move onto the next event. . .

What do you guys think on this one?

I'm contemplating plays on JDS and Hazelett, but will need to watch some tape on Yvel and Semtex before I do.

I'd take Rashad at -180 or better and I'd take Silva at +190 or better.

Went ahead and dropped .25u on Stout. It's unlikely he'll win this fight, but I'm not sure he should be more than a 2:1 dog either.

Anyone here have any thoughts on Dan Lauzon? The only time I saw him fight was on an Affliction card a while back and honestly wasn't super-impressed.

[MMA_scientist]

I got Rashad @ -195 for 3u. I think the line will get worse on him closer to fight time.

I am considering a bet on Sherk, but the line would have to move pretty drastically (-200 or so).

I am considering an underdog bet on Stout. I think he has a good chance, his takedown defense has looked alot better. If he can keep it upright, he should win.

I like Hazelett a lot, but I think the chances of him getting KO'd are pretty high. He would be a good underdog, and I think he will win, but his takedowns will decide this fight, and its not his bet area.

I think JDS is a solid bet, but its a striker/striker matchup, and Yvel hits with murderous intent. I rarely bet striker/striker matchups personally. I just don't know as much about striking, so its hard for me to gauge who is better.

[Mr. IWS]

I dont really like this card from a betting standpoint. Ill be laying off this one.

I would lean towards Thiago Silva though.

[MMA_scientist]

I also put down 3 units on Cole Miller @ -155. I went and watched some of D-Lau's fights. I really don't think he can beat Cole. He has a brawling style on his feat, and Cole is more technical. So there is the chance he can swarm him. On the mat, Cole should be better as well. Pretty good odds on Cole, IMO.

[SPX]

Watched some fights and went ahead and pulled the Trigger on JDS:

3u @ -260.

I think he's going to go out there and do his thing and Yvel's not going to have anything for him. Yvel has had a lot of wins lately, but against who? Rizzo? I could maybe you could say the same thing about JDS, who beat up an old Cro Cop and a young Struve, but Werdum was top 10 and probably next in line for a title shot before he got KTFOd. I've said it before and I'll say it again: JDS is a killer and he's going to go far in the HW division, perhaps all the way to the belt.

[zY|]

I dunno man. JDS is a good striker but he seems pretty damn sloppy defensively. Crocop was landing his straight left at will but JDS just didn't seem to care. Gilbert Yvel can knock out anyone.

[MMA_scientist]

I never bet on slugfests/pure striking matches. Especially heavyweights. They all have so much power that anyone can get rocked with just one slip up.

[SPX]

This will be a striking match, but not a slugfest. JDS is very slick. 18-0 Brazilian kickboxing champ. 9-1 in MMA with his only loss coming by sub.

I think he's going to pick Yvel apart until he gets a good opening to put him out.

Then again, like you say, anything can happen.

[MMA_scientist]

I didn't know about his kickboxing record. But then again, what is the brazilian kickboxing scene like? It could be like how Babalu was an olympic calibur wrestler in Brazil. JDS doesn't look that technical to me, but maybe I misjudged him.

[Mr. IWS]

Im leary of this one too. Yvel can bang, and like Scientist said, when these big guys are throwing, anything can happen.

[SPX]

I didn't know about his kickboxing record. But then again, what is the brazilian kickboxing scene like? It could be like how Babalu was an olympic calibur wrestler in Brazil. JDS doesn't look that technical to me, but maybe I misjudged him.

Brazilian kickboxing scene, yeah, I dunno. Maybe it's shitty. I just know that in 18 fights he's never lost there.

I think you're right that at the higher weightclasses it really takes one good punch to end a fight. Yvel could do it. But considering that he'd be the first person in 38 total fights to EVER KO JDS, my worries about that are minimal.

[MMA_scientist]

Don't get me wrong, I think its a pretty safe bet. JDS is top notch, while Yvel is maybe not even top 20. Yvel got KO'd standing by Josh Barnett in his last real test. If he can't catch a big slow pasty caucasion wrestler, why should he catch JDS?

[Mr. IWS]

Yvel got KO'd standing by Josh Barnett in his last real test.

All I remember from that fight is Barnett having Yvel mounted for 3 rounds beating his head in.

[MMA_scientist]

Maybe he just knocked him down with a punch.

[Luke]

[quote=IWS Zak]

Yvel got KO'd standing by Josh Barnett in his last real test.

All I remember from that fight is Barnett having Yvel mounted for 3 rounds beating his head in.[/quote:1x1fxspd]



Heres a link to that fight

http://mixedmartialartvideos.com/jos...-of-reckoning/

[zY|]

JDS is still so sloppy though....

[Luke]

Don't get me wrong, I think its a pretty safe bet. JDS is top notch, while Yvel is maybe not even top 20. Yvel got KO'd standing by Josh Barnett in his last real test. If he can't catch a big slow pasty caucasion wrestler, why should he catch JDS?

He won while being in the full mount throwing strikes.Had this fight been fought on their feet Yvel would have stood a good chance of winning

[Luke]

Im leary of this one too. Yvel can bang, and like Scientist said, when these big guys are throwing, anything can happen.

Thats kind of my thinking. Is Santos going to try to fight this on their feet? If so no way am I laying -260. If Santos was going to try to take it to the ground then maybe

[SPX]

JDS is still so sloppy though....

I have never once thought of JDS as sloppy.

He is gonna fuck Yvel up. Can anything happen in MMA? Sure. Yvel can win and make me look like a fool, but I think JDS will take this one decisively.

I have 3u on JDS. I'm considering 5u, which is pretty much my max bet.

[MMA_scientist]

Don't get me wrong, I think its a pretty safe bet. JDS is top notch, while Yvel is maybe not even top 20. Yvel got KO'd standing by Josh Barnett in his last real test. If he can't catch a big slow pasty caucasion wrestler, why should he catch JDS?

He won while being in the full mount throwing strikes.Had this fight been fought on their feet Yvel would have stood a good chance of winning

Its true. I got confused... I was thinking of the Rizzo fight.