New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

[MMA_scientist]

I have stevenson, Maia, and Marquardt... all for 5u. I missed the opening lines and had to pay more. I got Stevenson @ -295, Maia @ -310, and Nate @-275

I think Diaz has a good shot against Maynard. Maynard has improved his striking, but he has not fought anyone that could really threaten him with subs. The only submission threat he has fought so far was Clementi... in that fight, Clementi was having some success compromising his base with the half guard. Maynard will probably win by keeping it standing, but Diaz has real value IMO. Maynard is still untested against the one style of fighter that he has lost to...

[Mr. IWS]

I think Diaz has a good shot against Maynard.

My buddy who posts here, (Natural Born Thriller) loves Diaz in this fight.

[MMA_scientist]

Per my rules, I only bet on guys that I think WILL win the fight (not have a better chance than the odds dictate), but there is value in Diaz... and several other dogs in the coming months.

[SPX]

I honestly think Diaz is going to get owned in this fight. Maybe not owned owned--like, thoroughly embarassed--but I don't think he's really going to be able to mount much of an offense. I think that the Maynard that fought Diaz on TUF is a different fighter from the Maynard of today. I think that he's going to be able to use his strength and wrestling skills to control Diaz and will be able to power out of any sub attempts.

Reference Diaz/Guida and Diaz/Stevenson. I expect this fight to look KIND OF like those two.

[MMA_scientist]

Guida has a lot more energy than Maynard, basically allowed him to just lean on him the entire time. Stevenson is a grappler, he is just better than Nate, at bjj and wrestling. Maynard is still pretty much a wrestler on the mat. Joe could survive or beat someone without being on top. Maynard, if and when he faces a better wrestler, he will lose.

That said, I don't think Diaz is that great, and Maynard should win. But I would not be surprised to see him get triangled or guillotined- those are Diaz's go to subs, and it is pretty tough to power out of either of them. I think Maynard will try to keep it standing, where he should have an advantage.

[Luke]

I know Rothwell is sort of a journeyman, but what has Cro Cop done lately to be the favorite in that fight?

Name is about it .

I think Dana is giving Cro Cop a guy he can beat to get him a win under his belt ala couture-vera or couture-coleman.Its always good to keep a big name winning because it brings in more fans and pay per view numbers

[SPX]

Name is about it .

I think Dana is giving Cro Cop a guy he can beat to get him a win under his belt ala couture-vera or couture-coleman.Its always good to keep a big name winning because it brings in more fans and pay per view numbers

I think Cro Cop might start to have value around -135.

[SPX]

Per my rules, I only bet on guys that I think WILL win the fight (not have a better chance than the odds dictate), but there is value in Diaz... and several other dogs in the coming months.

I would say I meet you halfway here. There are fights where I think the guy has a better chance than the odds are giving him, but I really feel strongly that he simply will not win. I do not bet these. But there are plenty of fights where I don't really think a fighter is going to win his fight but has a resonable chance of doing so.

I've had some successes in this realm:

Pellegrino over Neer
Smith over Le
Sakara over Leites
Grove over Rosholt
Shogun over Machida (almost)

I almost never think the dog is going to win. A couple of exceptions are a few guys I got at very light underdog odds, like Dos Anjos over Emerson and Belcher over Goveia, both of whom ended up the favorites before it was over with.

The good thing about underdogs is that if you pick your shots then you can lose more than you win and still show a profit.

[Luke]

Name is about it .

I think Dana is giving Cro Cop a guy he can beat to get him a win under his belt ala couture-vera or couture-coleman.Its always good to keep a big name winning because it brings in more fans and pay per view numbers

I think Cro Cop might start to have value around -135.

I think he has vaule at -170 and will probably be on him in this fight

[Luke]

I almost never think the dog is going to win

You cant think like that imo. Just because someone is the favorite doesnt mean they are going to win.I look for dogs to bet because I dont like laying big juice on a fight

I bet dogs when I think the fight is 50/50 or better.If I lose on a dog I lose 1 unit ,if I lose on most favorites I've lost 1.5 units or more most of the time

[SPX]

You cant think like that imo. Just because someone is the favorite doesnt mean they are going to win.I look for dogs to bet because I dont like laying big juice on a fight

I bet dogs when I think the fight is 50/50 or better.If I lose on a dog I lose 1 unit ,if I lose on most favorites I've lost 1.5 units or more most of the time

Generally I feel that underdogs are underdogs for a reason.

If I bet a dog, it's because I think they CAN win . . . and even have a reasonable chance of doing so . . . but probably won't. That's just the math of the game. I mean, if you bet on a guy because the oddsmakers are only giving him a 30% chance and you think he has a 40% chance, you still have to accept that more times than not your guys is gonna lose. You're just hoping that THIS fight is going to be one of those 4 times in 10 instead of the other way around.

[Luke]

You cant think like that imo. Just because someone is the favorite doesnt mean they are going to win.I look for dogs to bet because I dont like laying big juice on a fight

I bet dogs when I think the fight is 50/50 or better.If I lose on a dog I lose 1 unit ,if I lose on most favorites I've lost 1.5 units or more most of the time

Generally I feel that underdogs are underdogs for a reason.

If I bet a dog, it's because I think they CAN win . . . and even have a reasonable chance of doing so . . . but probably won't. That's just the math of the game. I mean, if you bet on a guy because the oddsmakers are only giving him a 30% chance and you think he has a 40% chance, you still have to accept that more times than not your guys is gonna lose. You're just hoping that THIS fight is going to be one of those 4 times in 10 instead of the other way around.

Oh I agree .I wont bet a dog unless I think its 50/50 or better .I have never bet a dog just because theres value in the line. Most dogs have value because more favorites cover than dogs in MMA and I think its built into the line to shady toward the favorite but I'm not betting one unless I think its a toss up if he'll win or not.

[SPX]

Oh I agree .I wont bet a dog unless I think its 50/50 or better .I have never bet a dog just because theres value in the line. Most dogs have value because more favorites cover than dogs in MMA and I think its built into the line to shady toward the favorite but I'm not betting one unless I think its a toss up if he'll win or not.

I think that if you only bet when you think it's 50/50 or the dog actually shouldn't be the dog, then you will probably lose out on some money over the long run. You have to be careful and pick your shots, but even when you bet but don't think your guy is going to win, as long as you bet where there's value and where you can see paths to victory for the undervalued dog, you will make money over the long run.

For instance, I really didn't think Smith was going to beat Le. I thought he Le was stand outside and pick him apart, which is exactly what he did for 2 3/4. But I also knew that Le had fought a bunch of fucking nobodies and that Smith has the power of God in his hands and I thought there was a greater than 23% chance that the oddsmakers were giving him for him to land that right hand and take the fight.

[Luke]

Oh I agree .I wont bet a dog unless I think its 50/50 or better .I have never bet a dog just because theres value in the line. Most dogs have value because more favorites cover than dogs in MMA and I think its built into the line to shady toward the favorite but I'm not betting one unless I think its a toss up if he'll win or not.

I think that if you only bet when you think it's 50/50 or the dog actually shouldn't be the dog, then you will probably lose out on some money over the long run. You have to be careful and pick your shots, but even when you bet but don't think your guy is going to win, as long as you bet where there's value and where you can see paths to victory for the undervalued dog, you will make money over the long run.

For instance, I really didn't think Smith was going to beat Le. I thought he Le was stand outside and pick him apart, which is exactly what he did for 2 3/4. But I also knew that Le had fought a bunch of fucking nobodies and that Smith has the power of God in his hands and I thought there was a greater than 23% chance that the oddsmakers were giving him for him to land that right hand and take the fight.

Smith was a great bet by you ,I should have followed .I said we should take Smith or nothing but had no balls to actually make the bet

[zY|]

Oh I agree .I wont bet a dog unless I think its 50/50 or better .I have never bet a dog just because theres value in the line. Most dogs have value because more favorites cover than dogs in MMA and I think its built into the line to shady toward the favorite but I'm not betting one unless I think its a toss up if he'll win or not.

I think that if you only bet when you think it's 50/50 or the dog actually shouldn't be the dog, then you will probably lose out on some money over the long run. You have to be careful and pick your shots, but even when you bet but don't think your guy is going to win, as long as you bet where there's value and where you can see paths to victory for the undervalued dog, you will make money over the long run.

For instance, I really didn't think Smith was going to beat Le. I thought he Le was stand outside and pick him apart, which is exactly what he did for 2 3/4. But I also knew that Le had fought a bunch of fucking nobodies and that Smith has the power of God in his hands and I thought there was a greater than 23% chance that the oddsmakers were giving him for him to land that right hand and take the fight.

Good bet on Smith. I started screaming like a little girl and cackling like a hyena when he laid out Dung Le.

And yeah Smith has power, but it's not COMPLETELY face melting. Nick Diaz ate his best shots and growled at him. Then again Nick has one of the best beards in MMA.

[zY|]

BTW SPX, you might as well throw that flyer on Bisping in the trash.

Wandy by KTFO hate crime MURDER.

[MMA_scientist]

Per my rules, I only bet on guys that I think WILL win the fight (not have a better chance than the odds dictate), but there is value in Diaz... and several other dogs in the coming months.

I would say I meet you halfway here. There are fights where I think the guy has a better chance than the odds are giving him, but I really feel strongly that he simply will not win. I do not bet these. But there are plenty of fights where I don't really think a fighter is going to win his fight but has a resonable chance of doing so.

I understand the value approach and agree money can be made this way. But for me it is a behavioral issue (ever listen to Dave Ramsey?). I know what happens to me when I lose several times in a row. I chase it. I raise my bets out of proportion to my bankroll. for lack of a better word, I go on tilt. I like to win. I like to build. I know this about myself so I try to match my strategy to minimize the damage I do with the human element. This is also the reason I ver go over -400, I am even considering lowering that to -350. I don't like the swings.

I like to pick favorites that have favorable matchups, making it unlikely that they will lose. I lose occasionally, though not very often honestly, and way less than the 1 out of 4 I would need to lose to break even. For this reason, maybe 1 out of 10 or 15 bets are underdogs.

But we all have our own quirks, and value is totally subjective. I can appreciate the approach though, but it is not how I bet (which is admittedly not for everyone).

[SPX]

Good bet on Smith. I started screaming like a little girl and cackling like a hyena when he laid out Dung Le.

I actually got out of my seat and started jumping up and down around my apartment and punching the air, going "Fuck yes! Fuck you, Cung Le!" I think it would due to a number of factors including the fact that I like Scott Smith and sometimes it's nice to see a hype trail get derailed. Also, I think it's just nice to call a fight right. Beyond the money, there's an ego factor involved in all of this.

[Mr. IWS]

Wandy by KTFO hate crime MURDER.

With a side order of Rape Choke.

[SPX]

BTW SPX, you might as well throw that flyer on Bisping in the trash.

Wandy by KTFO hate crime MURDER.

I hope you're right. I'd be willing to pay .5u for Wandy to get a win.