UFC Fight Night 20

[Luke]

I haven't been able to find any info on him wrestling. Wrestling "throughout college" could mean a lot of things. He proabbly stayed active on the freestyle circuit at the espoir and university levels... but that is quite a bit different than wrestling in college. It certainly looks like his base is wrestling, but I think he is probably going to get out wrestled by Massenzio, if it comes to that.

Maybe I don't understand what you mean by "wrestling in college" then. To me, that is participating in the sport of wrestling while enrolled in college.

I wrestled alot in college but it was usually with little tan blondes

[MMA_scientist]

Well, he could have wrestled on a club team, or he could have just entered local tourneys. Anyone can enter a local tourney, and a lot of former HS wrestlers do it while in college, just for fun or if they didnt get enough in HS. It is experience, but it is akin to entering the local bjj tourney with 3 guys in your weightclass. I don't know that is what he did, but I don't see any record of him wrestling on a college team...

[triathlete]

I wrestled alot in college but it was usually with little tan blondes

Haha... what was your final record?

[triathlete]

So, here's a research question.

As I start betting on some of the Fight Night and WEC fights, I'm going to need to do a little more research on some of the lower card fighters that I know nothing about, which would be most of them.

What sort of research methods do you employ? Do you watch film? Do you have a spreadsheet with numbers assigned to fighters? Or is it just gut feeling? I'm going to try to make another 5 picks on the WEC and FN cards.

Thx,

3

[SPX]

^^^ First off, you're dealing with two different animals here.

Fight Night's are going to be easier than WECs, precisely because UFC videos are much easier to find online than WEC videos. It's odd, because both are owned by Zuffa, but WEC videos get pulled down due to copyright infringement MUCH faster than UFC videos do. I don't know if maybe this has something to do with whoever owns the Versus channel or what. My solution has been to download all the WECs I can find. (Gotta give props to zY for inspiring me to do this.) Now if I need to look up a fight then I can (hopefully) just pull it up from my hard drive. This still isn't much help for a lot of the lesser known WEC fighters though because the prelims often aren't aired so in that case I'm still out of luck.

As for my actual process, I have a loose system that I follow:

1. I look up each fighters reacords and pay particular attention to who they've won against and who they've lost against. A lot of fighters may have good records, but you'll notice that any time they've fought a good fighter who has a name you'd have heard of, they lost. If the guy they're going to be fighting is in the same tier as the guys they've consistently lost to, then that's a good sign they'll probably lose this one, too. It's also good to note if they have had any common opponents and, obviously, if they've fought each other before.

2. I watch 3 to 5 recent videos for each other. I try to watch both wins and losses. I try to keep it varied. If they have wins/losses via KO or sub, then I try to make sure to watch at least one of each. I also like to watch some footage of their wins/losses via decision. How did they win? How did they lose? Was it close or did they dominate their opponent/get dominated? It's especially important to watch vids of fights they've had where they're opponents were very similar in style to the guy in the upcoming bout. I mean, if they have a habit of getting LnP'd en route to decision losses and the guy they're about to be fighting is a strong wrestler, then you know there's probably a lot of value in the other guy.

3. I try to see the fight play out in my head. I literally try to watch a mental video and see how it goes down.

4. Based upon all these factors, I try to assign what I believe is the true line and bet accordingly.

I've thought about trying to get even more scientific about it and even coming up with certain categories like "striking," "KO power," "wrestling," "takedown defense," etc. and then assigning number values to them as well as some other ideas but I haven't taken it that far yet.

Anyway, hope that helps.

[triathlete]

It absolutely does. I've watched a few videos already - I figured the process would entail that - but I'm not quite sure how to "watch" the videos. Absolutely makes sense - now.

[MMA_scientist]

^^^
This is pretty much what I do. I just look at the card, and see what fights jump out like "oh he is gonna win that." Then I look up records and see what style matchups are similar in past opponents. Then I watch some video clips of the facets that I have questions about

For example, I am trying to decide whether to place a bet on Aaron Simpson right now. So I look at Lawlor, what problems does he present. Basically Lawlor is a wrestler/grappler, similar to Dan Miller or Amtt Hughes. Better on top, but has some bottom subs. So I looked at the CB Dolloway fight. This is the only better wrestler Lawlor has defeated. He Subbed him with a guillotine. All of Lawlor's other subs and wins have come from the top position. So the next step is to check Simpson's defense. I looked at Herman, who is similar to Lawlor, just not as good with the all around grappling. Right now, I am looking at his fight with Avellan, who is a jiu jitsu fighter. What was his strategy? Was he threatened? If I am satisfied with his sub defense, I will bet on him. This is the key to that fight, IMO.

I also look for fights where there is a natural state... and then try to eliminate fights where there are a lot of variables. I like fights where it is clear what the battle will be, not fights where the fightt changes if a fighter employs a different strategy.

[MMA_scientist]

Oh and I don't bet WEC's... it is probablt going to sound strange, but the smaller fighters are too damn dynamic. There are too many good guys, they can all beat each other.

[Luke]

I'm

50% videos

40% gut

10% records/motivation

[SPX]

It absolutely does. I've watched a few videos already - I figured the process would entail that - but I'm not quite sure how to "watch" the videos. Absolutely makes sense - now.

Glad I could help. Just be smart about it. Understand how fights are won and remember that styles make fights.

[triathlete]

Oh and I don't bet WEC's... it is probablt going to sound strange, but the smaller fighters are too damn dynamic. There are too many good guys, they can all beat each other.

You know, I was thinking that to myself... even the people that "should" win lose to each other...

..but it is another opportunity..

I was going to ask you: Since you're looking to take this on as a full-time thing (therefore taking it very, very seriously) do you feel there's enough UFC fights to make that happen without having to put an enormous amount on each event? Or am I ignorant in assuming you only bet UFC MMA fights (which is possibly the case).

I think I'm going to follow that logic and just bet on UFC for now. I'll have to get to researching... have a week.

3

[SPX]

^^^
This is pretty much what I do. I just look at the card, and see what fights jump out like "oh he is gonna win that." Then I look up records and see what style matchups are similar in past opponents. Then I watch some video clips of the facets that I have questions about

For example, I am trying to decide whether to place a bet on Aaron Simpson right now. So I look at Lawlor, what problems does he present. Basically Lawlor is a wrestler/grappler, similar to Dan Miller or Amtt Hughes. Better on top, but has some bottom subs. So I looked at the CB Dolloway fight. This is the only better wrestler Lawlor has defeated. He Subbed him with a guillotine. All of Lawlor's other subs and wins have come from the top position. So the next step is to check Simpson's defense. I looked at Herman, who is similar to Lawlor, just not as good with the all around grappling. Right now, I am looking at his fight with Avellan, who is a jiu jitsu fighter. What was his strategy? Was he threatened? If I am satisfied with his sub defense, I will bet on him. This is the key to that fight, IMO.

I also look for fights where there is a natural state... and then try to eliminate fights where there are a lot of variables. I like fights where it is clear what the battle will be, not fights where the fightt changes if a fighter employs a different strategy.

Good stuff here. Lots of good thoughts.

So what was your conclusion? Is there value in Lawlor or are you going with A-Train?

[SPX]

You know, I was thinking that to myself... even the people that "should" win lose to each other...

Every dog has his day. Serra/GSP I will always and forever remind us of this.

..but it is another opportunity..

This is how I look at it. Every fight is an opportunity because someone has to win.

I was going to ask you: Since you're looking to take this on as a full-time thing (therefore taking it very, very seriously) do you feel there's enough UFC fights to make that happen without having to put an enormous amount on each event? Or am I ignorant in assuming you only bet UFC MMA fights (which is possibly the case).

I also hope to either do this fulltime or at least turn it into a significant side income, and I think that it's a mistake to restrict yourself solely to UFC. If you want to maximize your earning potential, then you have to look at all the big orgs: UFC, WEC, Strikeforce, DREAM, Sengoku, etc. And odds also occasionally go up for the smaller shows, like MFC, M-1, Shark Fights, etc.

My goal is to get to the point where I am betting on just about everything.

[SPX]

Okay, I just did some research on Escudero/Dunham.

Hmm. . .

I think the line's probably pretty well set. I believe I would feel comfortable taking Escudero at anything under -200, but not at the current line. Dunham is more game than I expected him to be. He's tall and lanky and knows how to use his height and reach to his advantage in his striking and his takedown defense isn't excellent, but it's not bad either.

At the current line, if I were to place a bet, it would probably be .25u on Dunham. Either that, or I would throw Escudero into a parlay with another fighter who I gave a good chance to win.

We'll see what happens as we get closer to fight time. If Escudero's line continues to get worse and Dunham's better, then I'll probably make a small play on Dunham. I think he has ways to win.

[Luke]

Number one thing in betting


NEVER EVER bet a fight where you havent watched both fighters fight at least once

[SPX]

Number one thing in betting


NEVER EVER bet a fight where you havent watched both fighters fight at least once

I did that. . .

. . . on all the boxing matches I've bet on.

[Luke]

Number one thing in betting


NEVER EVER bet a fight where you havent watched both fighters fight at least once

I did that. . .

. . . on all the boxing matches I've bet on.

[The HOFF]

I find that WEC fights are a lot harder to cap as well. Most of the fighters are making their debut and come from smaller local shows. Youtube is actually a good source for finding fight videos of those local shows.

With this Fight Night card I actually think there is a lot of value in the dogs. TUF fame always inflates a line. I think both Escudero and Sadollah are overpriced. I actually think Blackburn should be favored over Sadollah. Amir had some extremely sloppy stand up while beating up a can in Baroni. And I think everyone forgets that Amir was subbing inexperienced guys on the show. Subs don't come that easy against decent competition. Blackburn is a middle of the road vet that is going to give Sadollah problems. Love Blackburn at +135. Dunham has just as good of a skill set as Escudero has. Plus Dunham is going to have a reach advantage. I'm on Dunham +200. And as previously stated, I like Diaz at +270. Waiting for the line on Rory MacDonald.

[MMA_scientist]

Good stuff here. Lots of good thoughts.

So what was your conclusion? Is there value in Lawlor or are you going with A-Train?

The Avellan fight didn't show me much (he KOd him in the first exchange). But it did remind me that Simpson also has a striking advantage. I also watched Herman v. Maia. Heman is a decent grappler, he was doing pretty well against Demian, and Demian was starting to gas.

The I looked at Lawlor. All of his subs except CB, came from dominant positions. He is like Matt Hughes, he can sub you, but is much more likely from top. CB is a decent wrestler, but is ALOT slower and more lanky than Simpson, who has a compact body habitus. His stocky frame will make him more difficult to submit.

What pushed me over though was Lawlor's TUF fight with Bader. Simpson is similar to Bader, but more explosive with his hands.

I put down 5u on Simpson @ -250

[MMA_scientist]

Oh and I don't bet WEC's... it is probablt going to sound strange, but the smaller fighters are too damn dynamic. There are too many good guys, they can all beat each other.

You know, I was thinking that to myself... even the people that "should" win lose to each other...

..but it is another opportunity..

I was going to ask you: Since you're looking to take this on as a full-time thing (therefore taking it very, very seriously) do you feel there's enough UFC fights to make that happen without having to put an enormous amount on each event? Or am I ignorant in assuming you only bet UFC MMA fights (which is possibly the case).

I think I'm going to follow that logic and just bet on UFC for now. I'll have to get to researching... have a week.

3

No there are plenty of fights, I don't even bet every one. If you bet 5% on each fight, you only need to win one bet per month. Most guru's recommend smaller bets, maybe 1%, but I pretty much bet favorites all the time. I look for favorites with very few variables and a clear advantage.