UFC Fight Night 20

[zY|]

You're a D level poster.

[SPX]

Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's Day and two birthdays – UFC lightweight Evan Dunham trained through them all for his co-main-event fight against "The Ultimate Fighter" season-eight winner Efrain Escudero at Monday's UFC Fight Night 20 event in Fairfax, Va.

He's given up a lot but said it's a small price to pay for victory. Training and personal time are the same thing.

"I always try to train a little bit harder than the last time to ensure that the Evan that goes in there is a better Evan than the last time," Dunham told MMAjunkie.com (mmajunkie.com) on Tuesday.

The 28-year-old Dunham has had a fast rise in the 155-pound division with victories over Per Eklund and Marcus Aurelio. A high-school wrestling standout, he bucked his wrestling base by out-striking the two decisively. He now lives in Las Vegas, where he works with Shawn Tompkins and, apparently, sees little daylight outside the gym.

Dunham considers himself a lucky man for the lack of flack he gets for his schedule.

"(My family) support it because they know that hard work pays off," Dunham said. "They know that this is a sport you have to be very dedicated to."

Escudero, an All-American wrestler at Pima College, proved his dedication on the reality show by dominating Phillipe Nover to win the "TUF" crown. In September, he turned heads when he shirked his mat pedigree by knocking out Cole Miller at UFC 103.

Dunham, however, thinks he's got what it takes to out-strike the developing striker.

"I think I have the advantage in the hands," he said. "I think I'm a little more elusive than he is."

In fact, Dunham is banking on a confidence bump he thinks Escudero got for the recent finish. When the inevitable clash of hands goes down, he expects the reality-show winner to get the message that standing isn't a good idea.

"I think that last fight put something in his head, gave him some confidence, which is well deserved, and I think he's going to go out and test his hands," Dunham said. "As soon as I crack him with something, he's definitely going to be coming in hot."

Tompkins has said his pupil is one of the only guys to give top-tier lightweight Gray Maynard fits in the gym.

"I think a big part of this fight is going to come down to transitions," Dunham said. "Just like a high level jiu-jitsu match where fights aren't won by a single move, they're won in transitions. He's got great wrestling, but I'm down here training with guys who in my opinion have better wrestling. He's not going to bring anything to the table that I'm not used to competing against on a daily basis."

Six days out from the fight, he's at 167 pounds and ramping down his camp. He said he won't need any help getting focused when game-time arrives – not with all the personal time he's invested in the fight.

All that's needed is a final gut-check before the cage door closes.

"Before every fight, I kneel down, and I get into a nice, relaxed place in my head," Dunham said. "I think about how life is up to this point, realize that I'm happy with everything that's happens, and now it's time to go to war. It's time to leave everything I got in the world out there."

http://mmajunkie.com/news/17441/skipped ... dunham.mma

[SPX]

I think I might go ahead and jump on Dunham for .5u.

[MMA_scientist]

i think that is a solid play.

I initially liked Efrain, but after looking more at Dunham, I think is pretty close to even. I am not betting it, but I kind of want to jump on Dunham here.

[SPX]

i think that is a solid play.

I initially liked Efrain, but after looking more at Dunham, I think is pretty close to even. I am not betting it, but I kind of want to jump on Dunham here.

I don't know if it's just Shawn Tompkins hyping his own guy or not, but if Dunham can really hang with Maynard in the wrestling department then I don't think he'll have a big problem defending Efrain's takedowns.

[zY|]

i think that is a solid play.

I initially liked Efrain, but after looking more at Dunham, I think is pretty close to even. I am not betting it, but I kind of want to jump on Dunham here.

If you think it's an even fight, sounds like a great dog bet.

And on that note, I'm not sure why they're matching up 2 undefeated prospects.

[SPX]

And on that note, I'm not sure why they're matching up 2 undefeated prospects.

Someone's 0 must go!

[SPX]

$#%@#$%!$!!!

Why in the FUCK is the Harris/Massenzio fight no longer showing up on the UFC website?

I swear to God, if they moved that fight I'm going to be pissed!

WAR HURRICANE!

[MMA_scientist]

[quote=zY|]

i think that is a solid play.

I initially liked Efrain, but after looking more at Dunham, I think is pretty close to even. I am not betting it, but I kind of want to jump on Dunham here.

If you think it's an even fight, sounds like a great dog bet.

And on that note, I'm not sure why they're matching up 2 undefeated prospects.[/quote:h3ujs0ls]


I think it is a good bet... but per my rule of only betting dogs that I think will win the fight, I have to value him at at least Even to make it. I still give Efrain a slight advantage, just because of athleticism and takedowns. Evan has to beat Efrain both places, because Efrain can have the takedown when he wants it... Evan might give Maynard trouble on the mat, but judging on his past fights, he won't be able to stop the takedowns.

[SPX]

I think it is a good bet... but per my rule of only betting dogs that I think will win the fight, I have to value him at at least Even to make it. I still give Efrain a slight advantage, just because of athleticism and takedowns. Evan has to beat Efrain both places, because Efrain can have the takedown when he wants it... Evan might give Maynard trouble on the mat, but judging on his past fights, he won't be able to stop the takedowns.

Why have such a rule? Don't you think that in the long run you're actually losing money by giving up +EV wagers?

[MMA_scientist]

I think it is a good bet... but per my rule of only betting dogs that I think will win the fight, I have to value him at at least Even to make it. I still give Efrain a slight advantage, just because of athleticism and takedowns. Evan has to beat Efrain both places, because Efrain can have the takedown when he wants it... Evan might give Maynard trouble on the mat, but judging on his past fights, he won't be able to stop the takedowns.

Why have such a rule? Don't you think that in the long run you're actually losing money by giving up +EV wagers?

Yes, but its worth it for me, in order to keep volatility down. Passing up these bets lets me make bigger bets on other fights without risking ruin.

[SPX]

Yes, but its worth it for me, in order to keep volatility down. Passing up these bets lets me make bigger bets on other fights without risking ruin.

I hear you.

That's why I keep my typical wagers on underdogs in the .25-.5u range. That way if I lose it's not a real big deal.

I'm going to go home and look at my bets for December and see if I am ahead or behind for the month for my underdog bets.

[MMA_scientist]

Also, in my mind, there are really only 2 kinds of fights... fights where the outcome is pretty certain, and those where I am not sure what will happen. I try to only bet on the ones where I am pretty sure I know what will happen.

Of course I get it wrong sometimes... but honestly, not that much. Most of the time when I lose, I feel like I just overlooked something because I let my own greed and/or like or dislike for a fight sway me. I feel like you can find value in most of the fights on the card, really.

Setting a firm percentage seems so artifical and subjective to me... can I really differentiate between a fighter who is 63% to win and one that is 68%? I don't think so... what does it even mean? To me, they are going to win or they are not.

[MMA_scientist]

I have only had 2 dogs since November: Bisping/Kang and Koscheck/Johnson. I thought both of them would win, barring some freak occurence.

[SPX]

I feel like you can find value in most of the fights on the card, really.

This is my philosophy. That's why I had like 8 bets out there for 108.

Setting a firm percentage seems so artifical and subjective to me... can I really differentiate between a fighter who is 63% to win and one that is 68%? I don't think so... what does it even mean? To me, they are going to win or they are not.

In the end, it only matters if your guy wins. If you could somehow had a way to know for sure who was going to win a fight, the percentages and "value" and all that shit wouldn't matter. In that sense, ALL fights hold value because someone's going to win (barring those rare instances of NCs and Draws).

[zY|]

Yes, but its worth it for me, in order to keep volatility down. Passing up these bets lets me make bigger bets on other fights without risking ruin.

I hear you.

That's why I keep my typical wagers on underdogs in the .25-.5u range. That way if I lose it's not a real big deal.

I'm going to go home and look at my bets for December and see if I am ahead or behind for the month for my underdog bets.

I know I'm ahead. I generally don't bet many dogs either but I've found two instances where betting dogs seems to be the way to go. Japanese MMA(Dream/Sengoku anyways) and TUF Finales. The latter is because guys get all hyped up because of a reality show that in no way reflects their skills and there are always gross inflations of lines. Look at the last one, didn't like 4 +200 or worse dogs come through? Also for TUF 9 I bet against James Wilks solely because everyone thought Damarques would win. Same with Nover/Efrain at TUF 8(I didn't bet this one though).

Japanese MMA is harder to gauge why it happens but dogs seem to win all the damn time. On Dynamite I made 5 dog bets and won 3 of them.

[SPX]

I know I'm ahead. I generally don't bet many dogs either but I've found two instances where betting dogs seems to be the way to go. Japanese MMA(Dream/Sengoku anyways) and TUF Finales. The latter is because guys get all hyped up because of a reality show that in no way reflects their skills and there are always gross inflations of lines. Look at the last one, didn't like 4 +200 or worse dogs come through? Also for TUF 9 I bet against James Wilks solely because everyone thought Damarques would win. Same with Nover/Efrain at TUF 8(I didn't bet this one though).

That's an interesting thought. I will have to keep that in mind for the next TUF Finale.

Japanese MMA is harder to gauge why it happens but dogs seem to win all the damn time. On Dynamite I made 5 dog bets and won 3 of them.

Considering the fact that you went dog crazy on that event anyway, why didn't you bet Kanehara? I thought it was obvious that that line was off.

[MMA_scientist]

I agree with your TUF theory. I think the fighters are so raw alot of times, you see a totally different fighter on teh Finale. Also, you get to see them fight when they actually know ahead of time who they are fighting.

I rarely bet on Japanese MMA, because I lose all the time when I do. So you are probably right there too.

[zY|]

[quote=SPX]

I know I'm ahead. I generally don't bet many dogs either but I've found two instances where betting dogs seems to be the way to go. Japanese MMA(Dream/Sengoku anyways) and TUF Finales. The latter is because guys get all hyped up because of a reality show that in no way reflects their skills and there are always gross inflations of lines. Look at the last one, didn't like 4 +200 or worse dogs come through? Also for TUF 9 I bet against James Wilks solely because everyone thought Damarques would win. Same with Nover/Efrain at TUF 8(I didn't bet this one though).

That's an interesting thought. I will have to keep that in mind for the next TUF Finale.

Japanese MMA is harder to gauge why it happens but dogs seem to win all the damn time. On Dynamite I made 5 dog bets and won 3 of them.

Considering the fact that you went dog crazy on that event anyway, why didn't you bet Kanehara? I thought it was obvious that that line was off.[/quote:1k4qpsax]

Because I thought he was terrible to be honest.

[MMA_scientist]

Unrelated:

When do you guys think the undercard lines will come out for UFN, since it is on a Monday? I am expecting them tomorrow... but I have to be somewhere all afternoon, so I am hoping they come out in the morning or not at all.