1-10-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Docs

5 Unit Play. #107 Take Green Bay +1 over Arizona (Sunday 4:30 pm Fox) NFL Playoff Game of the Year. The Packers are for real and QB Rogers has become elite player in the league and I truly believe that the wrong team is favored in this contest. The Packers played to win last week and the Cardinals just went through the motions and expect Big Red to play much better this week. But that being said, I just do not believe that they can turn the switch on like they did last year. Arizona plays in a terrible division and they can make the playoffs but default and they have not played well at home this season going 4-4 and their fifth loss will come on Sunday. Green Bay has a recipe for success with a strong running back, three good receivers, and a shutdown cornerback. They complete the season sweep of Arizona beating them three straight times in the desert counting preseason. Green Bay 27, Arizona 23.

[kar261]

Stephen Nover
Sunday's Picks
100 Dime - Green Bay Packers

The Packers enter this wildcard matchup playing their best ball riding a 7-1 record (7-0-1 against the spread) in their last eight games with the only loss coming to Pittsburgh on the road during the final play of the game.

The Packers routed Arizona last week, 33-7. Aaron Rodgers played three quarters and completed 21-of-26 passes for 235 yards and a touchdown. The Packers also met the Cardinals during the third preseason game and amassed a 38-10 halftime piling up 357 yards before Mike McCarthy sat his starters out in the second half.

Yes, much of the Cardinals' first-team defense only played one possession and Kurt Warner sat after only six passes during last week's loss to the Packers. But there is now doubt in Arizona's minds. Green Bay matches up extremely well to Arizona and has tremendous confidence.

The Packers are actually looking forward to playing in the desert, leaving frigid Green Bay.

The Packers match up well to the Cardinals because Charles Woodson, who is having one of the finest years a cornerback has ever had, has the capability of covering the great Larry Fitzgerald one-on-one. Few defenses can do this.

Fitzgerald is the key to Arizona's attack. Usually it takes all kinds of coverages to blanket Fitzgerald. This frees up the always innovative Dom Capers to blitz and attack the immobile Warner. The Cardinals are particularly vulnerable with journeyman left tackle Jeremy Bridges, who is replacing veteran Mike Gandy, protecting Warner's blind side against Clay Matthews.

It really hurts the Cardinals' cause that Anquan Boldin, their top underneath route runner and a highly dependable receiver, is banged-up with ankle and knee injuries. He'll be extremely limited even if he does play, which is in doubt.

Warner is a Hall of Famer, but he's always been turnover prone especially when under heavy pressure. Green Bay ranked No. 1 in turnover differential at plus 22. The Packers were No. 2 behind New Orleans in scoring differential at plus 164.

They can shut down the Cardinals, but the Cardinals aren't going to be able to stop Green Bay's attack.

Rodgers is playing at a high level, helped by the emergence of a healthy Jermichael Finley at tight end to go with four quality wide receivers. The Cardinals don't have enough defensive backs to adequately cover the Packers' spread attack, especially with cornerback Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie questionable with a knee injury. Safety Antrel Rolle is less than 100 percent, too, because of a thigh injury.

Ryan Grant is running as hard as he has all season. Green Bay's offensive line has come together, thanks in part to veteran right tackle Mark Tauscher returning, to allow just 10 sacks in their last seven games after surrendering 41 in the first nine games.

Even Green Bay's vulnerable special teams have been playing much better. The oddsmaker had it wrong opening Arizona nearly a field goal favorite. Early money has all been on the Green Bay. Those bettors have it 100 percent right. The Packers win this game.

50 Dime - New England Patriots

This isn't a great Bill Belichick Patriots team. It can't match some of their Super Bowl teams. Losing six times on the road is proof of that.

But this Patriots team definitely is strong enough to dispatch Baltimore at home. The line has climbed from 3 to 3 1/2, so definitely buy the half-point down. There's no reason not to protect yourself with the number in the key 3-to-3 1/2 range. If you can find a 3, buy that down that to 2 1/2.

The Patriots remain very tough at home going 8-0. They have won their last seven home games by six or more points. This includes a 27-21 win against the Ravens in early October when Tom Brady still was getting the rust off.

Despite starting slow after missing last season, Brady threw for 4,398 yards and 28 touchdowns, both figures representing the second-highest totals of his career. Brady is 8-0 in his career in January home games.

A lot is being made of Wes Welker being out with a knee injury. Welker certainly was dependable. But his replacement, Julian Edelman, is a near clone. That position is hard to defend because it involves running across the middle on short patterns. Brady's effectiveness won't be diminished against a vulnerable Baltimore secondary missing two of its three best cornerbacks.

Baltimore's top responsibility is defending the deep ball against Randy Moss. The Ravens are far less intimidating on the road where they lost five of the last seven times while going 2-4-1 against the spread. It says a lot that they struggled to beat Oakland on the road last week in a must-win spot.

The Patriots rank No. 3 in passing yards. Their underrated offensive line has given up just 18 sacks. Brady definitely will go to town on backup cornerbacks Chris Carr and Frank Walker.

The Ravens need to take the pressure off their second-year quarterback Joe Flacco, who didn't play as well during the second half of the season as he did during the first half. That means running Ray Rice and Willis McGahee.

Belichick is a defensive genius. I'll definitely back him in a chess match against young Flacco. The Patriots get back their two best run-stuffers, Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren. They were nicked up and rested last week. Wilfork is one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL.

25 Dime - Over Pats/Ravens

Both teams have overrated defenses, making this a good number to go over with since it hasn't reached the key over/under range of 44-48.

Tom Brady and Randy Moss should have little problem attacking a bad Baltimore secondary wracked with injuries. New England finished the regular-season with the No. 3 passing attack despite Brady beginning the year slowly.

The Patriots also have decent running backs, Lawrence Maroney, Sammy Morris and Fred Taylor. They can ride the hot one and rotate their backs making sure each has fresh legs.

The total is lower than I thought probably in reaction to Wes Welker being out. Welker certainly was dependable, but his absence is being overrated. His replacement, Julian Edelman, has proven he, too, can find open seams on short, underneath routes.

The Ravens are going to need to pass because New England's rush defense is upgraded with Vince Wilfork back in the lineup. The Ravens can go after New England cornerbacks Jonathan Wilhite and Darius Butler. Shawn Springs is New England's best cornerbacks, but he's slowed down being in his 14th NFL season.

It's going to be cold in Foxboro, but not frigid. This being the early game helps weather-wise, too. Skies are supposed to be clear with limited wind.

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers Big Ticket
20* Pats/ Ravens Over

reg play---ariz

[Mr. IWS]

Ethan Law

2% New England -3 (buy the half)

Manhattan Syndicate Arizona +2

[Mr. IWS]

Axiumsports.com

January 10th 2009

*-Weekly System Picks. Please follow the system and do not increase your starting bet until you at least triple your account. -*

Current Bankroll=$2,557.95

Pick #15-NFL-1st Half-Baltimore/New England UNDER 21.5 -109

Pick #16-NFL-Green Bay/Arizona OVER 47.5 -103

Pick #17-NBA-Cleveland/San Antonio OVER 188 -110

[Mr. IWS]

HOWIE FEINER
2,000 Dime Lock
New England Patriots

[Mr. IWS]

BLACK WIDOW-BILL YOUNG

6* W ido w W iseg uy Packers/Cards Wild Card G AM E OF THE Y EA R on Green Bay +3(-135 at bodog)
The Packers represent our top selection in the Wild Card round as they travel to the Cardinals Sunday. Once again, we are not basing this selection on their 33-7 victory over the Cardinals in Arizona in their season finale, but more on how they have played the second half of the season. The Packers are 7-1 S.U. & 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games, with their only loss coming on a last-second miracle by the Pittsburgh Steelers, 36-37. Green Bay is hitting on all cylinders right now, and they are the most dangerous Wild Card team in the playoffs. Defensively, they own the #2 ranked defense in the league at 284 yards/game, and they have held 6 of their last 8 opponents to 17 points or less. Offensively, they are putting up 28.8 points/game including 30.2 points/game on the road. We all know they have one of the best passing games in the league behind Aaron Rodgers and a plethora of talented receivers, but the key to their success lately is that they've found a running game. Ryan Grant is carrying the load, but Brandon Jackson and Ahman Green are help keeping him fresh by contributing when they get the chance. Arizona is facing some serious injury problems heading into this one. WR Anquan Boldin is questionable after spraining his MCL and dealing with a bum ankle, while CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is questionable with a knee injury as well. DE Calais Cambell is also questionable with an injured thumb. All of these guys will be slowed even if they do go. Arizona has become one-dimensional offensively, and the Packers will feast on the Cardinals because of it. The Cardinals average just 93.1 rushing yards/game, so Green Bay can pin their ears back and get after the immobile Kurt Warner all game long. Green Bay has held 5 of their last 6 opponents to less than 200 yards passing, and for the season they allow just 201 passing yards/game. Green Bay has the more balanced offense and a better defense, and they are the clear choice in this match-up Sunday. The Packers are 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against NFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons. Take Green Bay and the points. (This is still a 6* play at +1 or on the Money Line, whatever you want because they will win outright)

5* W iseg uy Ravens/Pats AFC W ild Card S uref ire on New England -3(-105 at bodog)

This line started at Patriots -4 and it's already down to -3. The betting public is all over the Ravens due to the injury to Wes Welker, and though he is a big part of their offense, we still feel strongly about New England finding a way to win at home. The fact is that since Bill Belichick took over the Patriots, he has never lost an opening round game in the playoffs. This team still has a stout defense that can carry the load, and they still have plenty of playmakers on offense to score enough points to win. Look at it this way, would you rather have Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton or Randy Moss and Julian Edelman as your receivers? We'll take the latter every time because Moss is a game-changer, and Edelman has had an entire season to grasp the offense, and is basically the same player as Welker. New England is 8-0 at home this season, while the Ravens are 3-5 on the road. This is a very tough place to play, and it has shown once again this season. The Patriots are scoring 31.2 points/game at home while allowing just 12.9 points/game, outscoring their opponents by 18.3 points/game. Welker will certainly be missed, but his injury is getting blown way out of proportion. Also note that New England will be getting back D-Linemen Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren for this game, two of the best players on their defense. The Patriots are 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the second half of the season since 1992. The clear value here is with New England. Take the Patriots and lay the points.

[Mr. IWS]

KELSO

NFL
25 units Patriots
25 units Packers

CBB
25 units San Diego St -3.5
10 units Northwestern +6.5
5 units Kansas -6
4 units Flor St +4.5
3 units Oregon -8

[Mr. IWS]

Tim Trushel

Arizona/20*

[Mr. IWS]

MIKE LINEBACK

Premium Selections

[801] 4* Boston Celtics +1 -110 | 1:00p ET

[107] 4* Green Bay Packers -1.5 -110 | 4:40p ET

[Mr. IWS]

SuperSportsGroup

Temple v. Rhode Island 1pm
PICK: Rhode Island -3 Game (9*) Best bet of the day


Kansas v. Tennessee 4:30pm
PICK: OVER 151 Game (6*)
PICK: Tennessee +6.5 Game (6*)


Florida St v. Maryland 5:30pm
PICK: Maryland -4.5 Game (8*)Best Bet


3 team parlay for 1*

Detroit +6.5 Game
La Salle -1.5 Game
Valparaiso +7.5 1H

[Mr. IWS]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL

3* = New England
3* = "under" on N.E./Balt.
2* = Green Bay

[Mr. IWS]

JOEY TORELLI

NFL:
Packers -1

NCAAB:
Rhode Island -3

[Mr. IWS]

STEPHEN NOVER
100 dimes

Green Bay Packers

[Mr. IWS]

TEDDY COVERS

Big Ticket Total of the Year
7* Baltimore Ravens/NE Patriots Over

Play Off Game Of The Week
5* Arizona Cardinals

[Mr. IWS]

MREAST NBA SUNDAY PLAY OF THE DAY

The New Orleans Hornets have not been able to get anything done on the road all season where they stand at 4-13. They are in a difficult scheduling spot, that has seen them go from home to Utah, to Oklahoma City, back home, and now to Washington. Wizards not winning many at home, but have already beaten Orlando, and Cleveland, and lost to Boston by just 2. Hornets just 2-10 ATS vs teams with a losing home record, and 0-6 ATS vs teams with a winning percentage under .400, and have covered just 1 of the last 5 meetings in Washington. I'll go with Washington here.

#803 NEW ORLEANS HORNETS @ #804 WASHINGTON WIZARDS 1:05PM EST

PLAY ON #804 WASHINGTON WIZARDS +1.5 -110 FOR 3 UNITS

[Mr. IWS]

PPP/Gavazzi

4% New England
4% Green Bay

[Mr. IWS]

Chuck O'Brien

Take the Cardinals at home over the Packers in Sunday’s late wild-card game.

This comes down to a couple of fundament questions: Who do you trust more, Kurt Warner at home or Aaron Rodgers on the road? I’ll take Warner, the guy who’s played in three Super Bowls and knows how to win close games, over Rodgers, who is a playoff newbie, who has won just three games by six points or less, and who has just ONE fourth-quarter come-from-behind win in his two-year career (and that win was gift-wrapped by Jay Cutler in Week 1 of this season)

Which coach do you trust more, Arizona’s Ken Whisenhunt or Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy? I’ll take Whisenhunt (who guided the Cardinals to the Super Bowl last year in his first playoff appearance as a head man) over McCarthy (whose first postseason appearance ended with an overtime loss to the Giants as an eight-point home favorite in the NFC title game two years ago).

Who would you rather put your money on, the Cardinals at home (where just three weeks ago they manhandled Brett Favre and the Vikings, the same Brett Favre and the Vikings who crushed Green Bay twice this season) or the Packers on the road (Green Bay doesn’t have a single quality road victory this year, beating up on the Rams, Browns, Lions and Bears before last week’s totally meaningless win over the Cardinals while losing at Minnesota and at Pittsburgh, as well as at then-winless Tampa Bay).

Look, people, I know the betting public is infatuated with the Packers in this game, but the Cardinals aren’t chumps. They came within 90 seconds of winning the Super Bowl last year and finished with a 4-0 ATS mark in the playoffs (going 2-0 SU and ATS at home). Their defense is better this year than last, and they have ALL the postseason experience (particularly at the all-important QB position).

5? ARIZONA CARDINALS

[Mr. IWS]

Doug Williams


Baltimore Ravens +3 @ New England Patriots -3

Tom Brady must prove himself without the sure-handed assistance of Pro Bowl receiver Wes Welker. Rookie Julian Edelman is playing in his place. Even without Welker you can never under estimate the Pats. They haven’t lost a home playoff game since the 70’s and I don’t think it will happen now.
My pick: Patriots to Cover the -3

Sun, Jan 10 4.30pm ET
Green Bay Packers (pk) @ Arizona Cardinals (pk)

The sportsbooks have the odds as even here but I think the Packers defense has the edge over the Cardinals offense here.
My Pick: Packers