1-10-09

[Mr. IWS]

Steve Duemig

Sunday's Winners
30 Dime - Ravens



This will be the second meeting between these two teams. The Patriots won that game 27-21 with a little late drama that could have shown a different outcome. Mark Clayton dropped a pass on 4th down where he was wide open and could have walked into the end zone. That really doesn't have too much bearing on this week but it shows that the Ravens can hang with this team. The Ravens can hang with any team in the league which is why we like them here to cover. Their defense keeps them in every game and they are more than likely getting Ed Reid back which is very big. He seems to always be around the football, especially during playoff time. This isn't the same old Patriots here though either. They seem to feed off the meek of the NFL and struggle with the tough teams.

Offensively the Patriots may have been dealt a death blow with the loss of Wes Welker. Without a doubt he was Brady's favorite target. Welker ate up yards and catches for first downs. That kind of player cannot be replaced, even though Edelman is a decent option but he isn't Welker. The other thing that not having Welker does to the offense of NE is it will now allow the Ravens defense to take away Randy Moss. That my friends is huge!! With Welker you can't concentrate totally on Moss, without Welker you can.



Ray Rice has been invaluable in both the Ravens run game and the short passing game eating up huge chunks for yardage almost every game. He will be asked to do a lot in this game and I look for Belechik to make him the prime target to take away from the Ravens attack. Flacco has some playoff experience which I think will be a big boost as well.He will need his receivers to come up big and help out.



The Ravens may not win here but they will hang and that's all we need. Just Hang around that field goal. Early line move has been toward the dog but I look for the public to stay with the favorite here and so you may get to the 4 which I recommend getting.



10 Dime - Packers-Cardinals Under



Line opened at 48.5 but at the time of writing it is down to 47.5. It was hit fairly early too but I expect the huge volume of the public to help this get back up by kick off. The main thing that should have caught your attention however and it definitely caught mine was that we see a HUGE % of the O/U bets going on the over yet the total moved DOWN. That means that there is smarter money going on the under and since we a re smart that's where we will go as well. I think everyone expects a pass fest here but teams tend to get a little tighter and more conservative in the playoffs. GB is a very good defensive team and they lead the league in turnover +/- Warner is very smart however and I don't think he will be giving them too many ops.

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis

Sunday's Lineup


25 Dime – CARDINALS (This line has gone from Arizona -2 1/2 to Green Bay -1 1/2 and climbing. If for some reason it gets all the way up to -2 1/2, buy the 1/2 point insurance up to 3. I suggest waiting as late in the day as possible to place this wager)



10 Dime – RAVENS (Buy the 1/2 point)



ARIZONA CARDINALS (this line has gone from Arizona -2 1/2 to Green Bay -1 1/2 and climbing. If for some reason it gets all the way up to -2 1/2, buy the 1/2 point insurance up to 3. I suggest waiting as late in the day as possible to place this wager) --- Going against the public in this one as I believe the Cardinals are the right side for several reasons. First off, I'm always more comfortable going against the general public, especially when nearly 90% of the wagers have come in on Green Bay. And with the Jets winning today, it gives bettors more confidence in Green Bay's last week performance. "If the Jets can do it, the Packers can do it". The difference is, I think the Cardinals are much better than their 10-6 record and I firmly believe they "coasted" through the end of the regular season as they looked somewhat indifferent. And it really doesn't surprise me either, as the goal of this team all along was to get back to the playoffs and WIN the Super Bowl, NOT get the #1 seed.



Remember, the Cardinals came in last year having to play during Wild Card Weekend, they were coming in cold while the Atlanta Falcons were coming in hot, having finished the second half of the season 6-2, including winning the final three games of the regular season (and 5 of their last 6). Atlanta, ironically, also came in 11-5 but didn't win the division... just like Green Bay. Arizona, meanwhile, struggled at the end of this season much like they struggled to finish last year, as they dropped 4 of their final 6 in 2008 after a 7-3 start. Sound familiar?



I don't doubt for a second that Green Bay is more than capable of winning this game, but I'll put my money on a team that represented the NFC in the Super Bowl just a year ago rather than a team who happened to finish the regular season hot but didn't sniff the post-season last year after finishing 6-10. Kurt Warner has played in two Super Bowls... Aaron Rodgers hasn't been in the playoffs.



Ultimately, I think this Arizona team is better than last year's edition and yet 90% of the country doesn't agree. Why are they better? I think their run defense is even better than it was last season which will force the Packers to abandon Ryan Grant and rely on Aaron Rodgers... which means they'll likely be one-dimensional. The other area I believe the Cardinals are better is in the power run game. With no disrespect to Edgerrin James, Beanie Wells (even though he's a rookie) gives them a bigger, more physical presence and offers a solid 1-2 punch along with Tim Hightower. It opens the playbook for Ken Whisenhunt and Kurt Warner to do a number of things they likely couldn't do last year. I was ready to take the Cardinals -2 1/2... so you can imagine my joy when I saw this line move 3 points in my favor.



I'm thinking something in the neighborhood of a 6-point Cardinals win... I'll call Arizona 30 Green Bay 24.



BALTIMORE RAVENS (absolutely buy the 1/2 point) --- So far the underdogs are 1-1 in the Wild Card round, and if you've been following the Wild Card round in the playoffs over the last 10 years, you know the dogs have been really good. Again, I'm going to side against public perception that the Ravens can't win on the road. Yes, I'm aware the Ravens were just 3-5 SU away from Baltimore this year and I know they have injuries on both sides of the ball, but this team is also the defending AFC runner up having played the Pittsburgh Steelers right to the wire three times last year. Yes, I know this team is a little different than last year's team, but it also has a QB who is a year more experienced and a RB who is finally developing into a franchise-type guy too. Despite having some injury issues on the offensive line, they've still been able to keep Joe Flacco upright, for the most part, and open holes for both Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. Defensively, the Ravens aren't quite as good as they were last season, but they still stop the run with the best of them, allowing less than 100 yards on the ground per game.



New England, on the other hand, has been a very frustrating team to handicap, covering just 50% of their games this year... failing to cover the number when you expect them to and covering when you think they have no chance. And to make matters worse, they'll have to play today's game without WR Wes Welker, who will be in street clothes today after tearing both his ACL and MCL in last week's loss to Houston. But it goes further than just Welker... I don't really trust Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor or Sammy Morris either. New England, as a whole, rushes for just 120 yards per game and they really haven't seen a solid run defense like they're going to see in today's game SINCE they faced the the Ravens back in Week 5. In that game the Pats did win by 6, but they rushed for just 85 yards on 30 carries and you simply can't post those type of numbers in the playoffs and expect to win. Plus, the Ravens had the ball deep in New England territory with a minute left when Mark Clayton dropped an easy 4th down pass that would have set the Ravens up with first-and-goal inside the 10 yard line.



I had a small play on the Bengals yesterday and my reasoning was... these two teams are fairly close defensively and in the run game, but Carson Palmer vs. Mark Sanchez isn't even close. Boy was I wrong. Good thing I had the Cowboys as my top play... even though I hate mis-handicapping any game. I'm not playing the Tom Brady vs. Joe Flacco card today. I'm looking at the teams as a whole and I believe this game comes down to a field goal. Not sure who wins SU but I like the Ravens to come in under the number.

[Mr. IWS]

Stephon Nover

BIGGEST PLAY OF THE YEAR



One-and-Only
100 DIME

Playoff Game of the Year



Green Bay - Arizona



100 DIME WINNER # 4 IN A ROW



100 dimes

Green Bay Packers

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Hoops

5* Nuggets
4* Maryland
3* Zona

[Mr. IWS]

January 10 2010
Frank Patron Must Win 40000 Unit Lock #4 In A Row

Frank Patron

Must Win 40000 Unit Lock #4 In A Row

Baltimore Ravens +3.5

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan
Sunday winners ...



SUNDAY TRIPLEHEADER

300? BALTIMORE RAVENS

300? ARIZONA CARDINALS

300? KANSAS JAYHAWKS





300? RAVENS - Sometimes it take intangibles you least expect in games like this, but due to the fact Baltimore will have its five starters on the offensive line ready to go for only the second time in the past seven games, I'm thinking we might see some offense from the Ravens, and we just might see another road shoocker in the AFC.



The Ravens O-Line was rock solid last week, trampling Oakland for 240 rush yards, and if they can rush the ball well today, does two things: gives Joe Flacco a chance to strategize with the passing game, and controls the clock while keeping the ball out of New England's hands.



And as crazy as this sounds, New England's defense is a bit vanilla for me, and I'd rather have the more physical and feared defense in this game. These two met in Week 4 against Baltimore, the Ravens scored on two 80-yard-plus drives and should have won the game. Of course, Tom Brady drew several roughing penalties, and was able to steal Baltimore's thunder. Don't think Ray Lewis and company hasn't thought about that 27-21 setback, as it triggered a three-game losing streak with losses also coming against Cincy and Minnesota.



I expect the Ravens to be on at their, and on their best behavior to avoid cheap calls against Brady. They'll be much sharper offensively, and think Ray Rice will be his game-breaking self once again. Tahe the road dog.



300? CARDINALS - Aaron Rodgers is my factor in this game, but it's not because of him, it's because he'll be on his back. The Packers' questionable pass protection, which resulted in Rodgers being sacked 50 times and tied for the league high, is going to be the biggest problem today in Arizona.



The Cardinals didn't do much with its vanilla approach last week, and will shake things up against veteran tackles Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton, who have worked in tandem the final seven game to help Green Bay to a 6-1 mark. But look at the defenses the team faced in that time: San Fran's, Detroit's, Chicago's and Seattle's was among them. Granted, Dallas and Baltimore was in there too, but I simply don't believe that offensive front has been tested enough.



This has been an area of concern for Arizona, the pass rush, and I believe the Cardinals will have the problem ironed out today.



There's a certain aura that comes with being the defending conference champion, and if the oddsmakers believed this was the team to beat earlier this week, I have to believe there's still some life in the NFC champs. Heck, the Cardinals are the lone NFC representative from the past three Super Bowls in the playoffs.



There is too much pride in Ken Whisenhunt, and he's going to have to do his job today and coach his Cardinals to a win over the explosive Packers, I admit that. But I do like the home pup here, as Arizona wins an instant classic.



300? JAYHAWKS - Kansas was tested on Wednesday by Cornell, which snuck into Fog Allen Fieldhouse and took the Jayhawks to the wire before finally losing 71-66. No more messing around, as the Jayhawks perhaps are under the mentality of playing to the level of their competition.



Kansas does have a tenacious defense, so maybe it'll take a ranked SEC-foe to bring it out of the Jayhawks. Kansas' defense is awfully stingy on the highway, allowing just 56.5 points a game while limiting the home team to just 30.4 percent shooting.



Last year these two went at it, and Kansas edged the Vols 92-85 as a three-point home favorite. Though this one is in Knoxville, the Jayhawks are a much better version.



Kansas rolls in on a slew of ATS runs, including 36-16 overall, 8-3 on the road, 7-0 after failing to cover, and 8-2 when visiting a team with a winning home record. On the flipside, the Vols are just 1-4 ATS in their last five on Sunday and 1-5 ATS in their last six against Big 12 opponents.

[Mr. IWS]

National Sports Service Picks


Picks For 01/10/10


4* New England -3.5 over Baltimore (NFL)

3* Arizona +1.5 over Green Bay (NFL)

3* Kansas -5.5 over Tennessee (NCAAB)

[Mr. IWS]

st bernadine sports advisors
lefty
NFL:
1* Baltimore +3.5 over the Pats(1 pm)
1* Green Bay/Arizona over 47.5(4:30 pm)


NCAABB
1* Xavier/Geo wash o-144(noon)

3* Kansas -6 overTennessee(4:30 pm)
1* Valparaiso/Wright under 133(4 pm)

[Mr. IWS]

Ras 1/10/2010
1 Unit each

Cal Poly
Cal SB

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Fargo Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, January 10, 2010
$40.00 Guaranteed:

. 10* Green Bay Packers

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapper: Vernon Croy
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals - Sunday January 10, 2010 4:40 pm
Pick: 5 units TOTAL: Over 47 (-110)

Take the Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals Game Over 47 Sunday, This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and both of these teams are capable of putting up big numbers in a hurry. The Packers are averaging 39 points per game over their last 3 games while the Cardinals are averaging 23.4 ppg overall this season. The Cardinals handed the Packers the game last week but things will be a lot different this week since this is a meaningful game. The Cardinals have averaged 30+ points in each of their last 3 games that they won and the O/U is 18-5 for the Cardinals in their last 23 games when they score less then 15 points in their previous game. The O/U is 7-2 for the Cardinals in their last 9 games after they allow more than 30 points in their previous game and the O/U is 24-8 for the Packers in their last 32 games after covering the number in their previous game. I look for both teams to light up the scoreboard Sunday so take the Over

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers

wash st
kansas

[Mr. IWS]

OC DOOLEY
Paid Selections

4-UNIT NFL Best Bet (4:40 et kickoff)
Packers at Cardinals
Selection: Cardinals +2'
ATTENTION: For those of you who want to make additional wagers I would lean towards the New England Patriots (analysis will be available in the Free section). I would also lean towards New England's Benjamin Watson OVER 32' receiving yards. This evening in college basketball I would lean towards North Carolina to bounce back from a shocking loss earlier in the week

ANALYSIS: Due to a myriad of INJURY issues today's report was delayed (alongh with my typing of analysis). More information on today's early NFL kickoff by 12:40 eastern. Feel free to place those bets on all of the below which have gone through my intense research

***Sunday ANALYSIS below***

4-UNITS on Cardinals +2' (NFL Best Bet)

3-UNITS on Oregon State +8' (College Basketball LATE NIGHT Best Bet broadcast on Fox-Net)

2-UNITS on Ravens/Patriots UNDER 43' (NFL Total)

CARDINALS (4:40 et kickoff): Major line swing with word that Arizona star wideout Anquan Boldin (ankle/knee) most likely will not start. But according to Kurt Warner Arizona prepared for this game WITHOUT including Boldin in the plans. 4 of the 5 injured Cardinals WILL play today. I have found out that Green Bay's secondary has INJURY issues which opens the door for Kurt Warner to have a big day. Last Sunday the Cardinals found out before gametime that a shot at a first-round bye was remote and chose to go conservative against the Packers. Thus I would not read too much into last week's result. Green Bay is on a 7-1 tear but early in the campaign had major problems protecting their quarterback. Arizona has 45 SACKS and can put major pressure on Aaron Rodgers. Here is a whopping 22-3 SYSTEM (88% last decade involving a pair of quality team that have won 60-to-75% of their games) which plays ON teams like Arizona revenging a loss where they scored less than two touchdowns, with a near pick-em line of +3/-3 which is the case today

OREGON STATE (10:35 et late night tipoff): This is a revenge spot for Oregon State who lost the "civil war" on the football field against rival Oregon. I can tell you that Oregon State is UNDEFEATED where it counts this season (6-0 ATS) when facing an opponent with a winning record and that is the case in this late night FOX-NET televised road encounter from Oregon. Take UNDERDOG Oregon State

RAVENS/PATRIOTS UNDER (1:05 et kickoff): This is the final "cold weather" game for awhile in the playoffs as all high seeds either play in a dome or at a warm weather site. Prior to last week New England's defense had allowed 10-or-less points in THREE consecutive contests. In the past four games Baltimore has averaged 36 RUSH attempts per game and will be looking to keep the football on the ground since their QUARTERBACK is hurting. Ravens QB Joe Flacco (hip/thigh) left Friday practice early and will be affected by the cold conditions. New England has lost star receiver Wes Welker to injury. Pats 17-6 UNDER in the playoffs since 1992

[Mr. IWS]

VERNON CROY
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals - Sunday January 10, 2010 4:40 pm
Pick: 5 units TOTAL: Over 47 (-110)

Take the Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals Game Over 47 Sunday, This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and both of these teams are capable of putting up big numbers in a hurry. The Packers are averaging 39 points per game over their last 3 games while the Cardinals are averaging 23.4 ppg overall this season. The Cardinals handed the Packers the game last week but things will be a lot different this week since this is a meaningful game. The Cardinals have averaged 30+ points in each of their last 3 games that they won and the O/U is 18-5 for the Cardinals in their last 23 games when they score less then 15 points in their previous game. The O/U is 7-2 for the Cardinals in their last 9 games after they allow more than 30 points in their previous game and the O/U is 24-8 for the Packers in their last 32 games after covering the number in their previous game. I look for both teams to light up the scoreboard Sunday so take the Over

[Mr. IWS]

GREAT LAKES SPORTS

NFL
4* Green Bay
3* New England

College Hoops
4* Butler
3* Michigan
3* Kansas

NBA

4* Boston
3* New Orleans
3* New Jersey

[Mr. IWS]

Executive

250 NE -3
250 Zona +2

[Mr. IWS]

ndian Cowboy Card, Anyone have his 6* NFL Playoff GOY?
I have IC's full card for today, I do NOT have his 6* NFL Playoff GOY, anyone have that? Here is his card otherwise:



5 Unit Play. #825. Northwestern +8 over Michigan (Sunday @ 2:30pm est).

This is a game that Northwestern can legitimately win outright. This Northwestern team has only lost three ballgames all year and they come to the likes of Michigan State, Illinois in overtime on the road and to Butler at home. This team has beaten the likes of Notre Dame by double-digits on neutral footing, Iowa State, NC State, Stanford, and in a low scoring conference games such as this one, I believe the eight points will become very significant. After all, getting eight points on a total of 128.5 is very appealing and this team returns a great deal of talent and this team is likely going to be the first team in its school history to reach the Dance this year. This team is 0-2 in conference play and desperately needs this game here and even if they do not win it, I still like their chances to stay inside the number and cover the spread. The Wildcats of Northwestern are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games, 4-0 in their last four road games as Underdogs and the Wolverines of Michigan are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.

4 Unit Play. Take the Washington Wizards +1 over the New Orleans Hornets (Sunday @ 1pm est). The Wizards came together in their last game without Arenas and they will do the same today. Remember, teams always come together during adversity. This can be said about the Vols in their last game, or when Chris Paul when he went out with the Hornets and so on. I foresee the Wizards coming together with their team and Randy Foye playing more of a role in this team's offense. Heck, the Wizards could let go of Gilbert when all is said and done as they will notice this team will play drastically without him with Caron Butler as this team's leader along with Jamison. Besides, with nearly 70% riding New Orleans I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the public gets buried here a bid and the home team gets the win with the dog tag. The Hornets have not done well against teams with a winning percentage of less than .400 as they are 0-6 ATS against them. Note that the Underdog is 5-2 ATS over their last seven games as well.

4 Unit Play. #806. Take the LA Clippers -1 over the Miami Heat (Sunday @ 3:30pm est). The Clips have been a team I have been high on all year. Heck, my 6 Unit future on this team for the over of 34.5 wins and they continue to roll as they are around .500 thus far. This team just beat the Lakers, Boston and Portland (a team that also recently beat the Lakers). The Clippers are a different beast at home as they are 5-0 ATS of late and they are picking up steam at the right time right now with the likes of Gordon, Davis, Kaman, Camby and Butler as this team is healthy and consequently, they are playing much better. Note that the Clippers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite and the Heat are 3-7 ATS when they face a team with a straight up losing record. I also like the Heat to have a let down as they come off a big road win over the Suns in their most recent game.
Good luck,
IC

[Mr. IWS]

Stan sharp

wildcard
goy
under arizona/green bay

[Mr. IWS]

Dwayne Bryant

NFL Side Sun, 01/10/10 - 4:40 PM ¼

dime bet 108 ARI 3.0 (-130) Bodog vs 107 GBP
Analysis:
NOTE: If your book has Ari‚zona +2.5, then buy the half-point up to +3. And if by some chance Arizona is +3, buy the half-point up to +3.5.

This reminds me so much of last night's Eagles-Cowboys game. Seemed like the world was on the Eagles because they couldn't possibly lose two weeks in a row to Dallas. We had the right side in that game & I feel we have the right side in this one as well. The public saw both rematches yesterday end the same way as the Week 17 games. So public perception is that the Packers will complete the trifecta and once again beat the Cardinals. I disagree, and here's why.

That game last week meant absolutely nothing to Arizona. They saw Minnesota win & lock up the #2 seed, so coach Whisenhunt only kept his starting defense in for one series, and Kurt Warner threw just six passes before exiting. On the flip side, Packers coach Mike McCarthy chose to keep his starters in for a majority of the game. So having a lopsided result is not at all surprising. And that lopsided result gives us great value today. The Cardinals opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but the Packers are now the 2.5-point favorite.

With Anquan Boldin not likely to play, even more people will line up to back the Pack. But Arizona has so many weapons to go with Larry Fitzgerald, such as Steve Breaston and Early Doucet in the passing game, and Beanie Wells has been a beast running the football. Kurt Warner is so good at getting rid of the football before the pressure gets to him, and he's very good at seeing where the blitz is coming from and hitting his hot read. Not taking anything away from Aaron Rodgers, who had a great season. But this is playoff football and he's making his first start. He did not really see the Arizona pass rush last week because they only played one series, but he'll get to know them really well today. And that Packers o-line has been known to give up sacks in bunches.

The Cardinals have the playoff experience, and they love being the underdog. They've covered NINE straight as a dog. Arizona may not have been great at home this season, but they did hammer the Vikings just a few weeks ago. And while the Packers have been on quite a roll, it should be noted that they do NOT own a quality road win this season. Throw out last week's win over the Cardinals' B-team, and the Packers' road wins this season came against the Rams, Browns, Lions, and Bears.

And if this game comes down to a FG, I'll take Neil Rackers over Mason Crosby, who has been very shaky this season.

Bottom line: While the public is enamored with Green Bay, the value lies with the home team with the playoff experience who likes to be the dog. The Pack won't get the luxury of playing against backups this week, and their lack of true road success and playoff experience will show in the end. Take
Arizona.

[Mr. IWS]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Baltimore / New England Over 43

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":

Pro Bowl safety Ed Reed will be playing in a limited roll today; a damaged nerve in his neck has hindered Reed over the past two seasons, but it was hip, ankle and groin injuries that kept him out of four December games.

Baltimore got offensive tackle Jared Gaither back after he missed a month due to a foot injury; with Gaither in the lineup, Baltimore had one of its best rushing games of the season, gaining 240 yards. Even with QB Joe Flacco making progress in his second season, the Ravens remain committed to running the ball; Ray Rice has been outstanding in his second season, rushing for 1,339 yards and seven TDs while leading the team with 78 receptions and he’s complemented by Willis McGahee.

It's interesting to point out that Baltimore has seen the total go "over" the posted number in all three road games they played this year as a road dog of 3 1/2 points or less.

On the other side of the field: Wes Welker was lost to injury last weekend; I expect rookie Julian Edelman, who has a similar skill set, to fill the roll adequately, but for Tom Brady's other offensive stars to step-up and fill the void. Keep in mind that in the two games Welker sat out and in the season finale, Edelman had a combined 21 catches for 221 yards.

Randy Moss has 83 catches for 1,264 yards and finished in a three-way tie for the league lead in TD's with 13; while he's assured of seeing plenty of double-teams, expect him to make a couple of big plays.

With RBs Sammy Morris, Laurence Maroney and Fred Taylor healthy, the Patriots have the option of attacking Baltimore with a three-pronged attack.

On the other side of the ball though; New England has looked anything but its normal defensive self this year and that lack of play was clearly evident in last weeks 34-27 loss to Houston. Teams are no longer in awe of this defensive corps and I expect it to struggle again against an improved Baltimore squad.

New England has seen the total go "over" the posted number in three of five contests when playing against a team with a winning record.

Bottom line: Brady is nursing an assortment of injuries, but certainly nothing as devastating as the season-ending torn knee ligaments he suffered in the 2008 opener. On Wednesday, he was named The Associated Press 2009 NFL Comeback Player of the Year.

This number is simply too low; when taking all of the above into account, the sharp money in this one is on the OVER!

7* OVER