2009 Top MMA Upsets: The Big 50 List

[Mr. IWS]

50 through 41
Rank Odds Loser Name Odds Winner Name Result Fight Date Event Name
50 -250 Edgar Garcia +200 DaMarques Johnson Round 1 Submission 12/12 UFC 107
49 -255 Aaron Riley +210 Shane Nelson Round 1 KO/TKO 3/7 UFC 96
48 -256 Anthony Njokuani +216 Benson Henderson Round 2 Submission 1/25 WEC 38
47 -260 Antonio Duarte +200 Albert Rios Decision 1/24 Affliction 2
46 -265 Rafaello Oliveira +231 Nik Lentz Decision 9/19 UFC 103
45 -265 Gleison Tibau +220 Melvin Guillard Decision 6/20 Ultimate Fighter Finale 9
44 -271 Denis Kang +226 Alan Belcher Round 2 Submission 1/17 UFC 93
43 -276 Yushin Okami +228 Chael Sonnen Decision 10/24 UFC 104
42 -285 Jon Jones +240 Matt Hamill Opponent DQ’d 12/5 TUF Season 10 Finale
41 -288 Sergei Kharitonov +225 Jeff Monson Round 1 Submission 4/5 Dream.8

40 through 31
Rank Odds Loser Name Odds Winner Name Result Fight Date Event Name
40 -290 Mike Swick +223 Dan Hardy Decision 11/14 UFC 105
39 -295 C.B. Dollaway +235 Tom Lawlor Round 1 Submission 7/11 UFC 100
38 -298 Bart Palaszewski +250 Ricardo Lamas Decision 3/1 WEC 39
37 -301 Marcus Jones +260 Matt Mitrione Round 2 KO/TKO 12/5 TUF Season 10 Finale
36 -301 Hiromitsu Miura +271 Edgar Garcia Round 1 KO/TKO 1/25 WEC 38
35 -305 Sean Sherk +275 Frankie Edgar Decision 5/23 UFC 98
34 -308 Chris Wilson +263 John Howard Decision 1/31 UFC 94
33 -308 Matthew Riddle +248 Nick Osipczak Round 3 KO/TKO 11/14 UFC 105
32 -310 Steve Cantwell +255 Brian Stann Decision 9/16 UFC Fight Night 19
31 -320 Joseph Benavidez +250 Dominick Cruz Decision 8/9 WEC 42

30 through 21
Rank Odds Loser Name Odds Winner Name Result Fight Date Event Name
30 -328 Pat Barry +273 Tim Hague Round 1 Submission 5/23 UFC 98
29 -328 Hidehiko Yoshida +278 Sanae Kikuta Decision 1/4 Sengoku No Ran 2009
28 -335 DaMarques Johnson +261 James Wilks Round 1 KO/TKO 6/20 Ultimate Fighter Finale 9
27 -340 Satoshi Ishii +265 Hidehiko Yoshida Decision 12/31 Fields Dynamite 2009
26 -345 Thales Leites +295 Alessio Sakara Decision 8/8 UFC 101
25 -355 Donald Cerrone +278 Benson Henderson Decision 10/10 WEC 43
24 -363 Justin Wren +283 Jon Madsen Decision 12/5 TUF Season 10 Finale
23 -368 Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou +283 Ikuhisa Minowa Round 3 KO/TKO 12/31 Fields Dynamite 2009
22 -370 Maximo Blanco +290 Akihiko Mouri Opponent DQ’d 5/2 Sengoku 8th Battle
21 -380 Stephan Bonnar +302 Mark Coleman Decision 7/11 UFC 100

20 through 11
Rank Odds Loser Name Odds Winner Name Result Fight Date Event Name
20 -384 Miguel Torres +278 Brian Bowles Round 1 KO/TKO 8/9 WEC 42
19 -386 Phillipe Nover +326 Kyle Bradley Round 1 KO/TKO 5/23 UFC 98
18 -386 Dave Herman +356 Mu Bae Choi Round 2 KO/TKO 1/4 Sengoku No Ran 2009
17 -408 Martin Kampmann +293 Paul Daley Round 1 KO/TKO 9/19 UFC 103
16 -415 Andre Galvao +285 Jason High Decision 7/20 Dream.10
15 -415 Rafael Cavalcante +320 Mike Kyle Round 2 KO/TKO 6/6 Strikeforce
14 -450 Satoru Kitaoka +325 Mizuto Hirota Round 4 KO/TKO 8/2 Sengoku 9th Battle
13 -453 Cung Le +318 Scott Smith Round 3 KO/TKO 12/19 Strikeforce
12 -463 L.C. Davis +323 Michihiro Omigawa Decision 3/20 Sengoku 7th Battle
11 -475 Andrei Arlovski +300 Brett Rogers Round 1 KO/TKO 6/6 Strikeforce

The Top 10
Rank Odds Loser Name Odds Winner Name Result Fight Date Event Name
10 -475 Norifumi Yamamoto +325 Masanori Kanehara Decision 12/31 Fields Dynamite 2009
9 -475 Akihiro Gono +325 Dan Hornbuckle Round 2 KO/TKO 8/2 Sengoku 9th Battle
8 -476 Josh Koscheck +388 Paulo Thiago Round 1 KO/TKO 2/21 UFC 95
7 -478 Ikuhisa Minowa +358 Katsuyori Shibata Decision 4/5 Dream.8
6 -500 Brock Larson +423 Mike Pierce Decision 9/19 UFC Fight Night 19
5 -550 Norifumi Yamamoto +400 Joe Warren Decision 5/26 Dream.9
4 -563 Brock Larson +388 Brian Foster Round 2 KO/TKO 11/21 UFC 106
3 -568 Hayato Sakurai +428 Marius Zaromskis Round 1 KO/TKO 7/20 Dream.10
2 -600 Hatsu Hioki +425 Michihiro Omigawa Decision 11/7 Sengoku 11th Battle
1 -715 Wagnney Fabiano +465 Mackens Semerzier Round 1 Submission 10/10 WEC 43

[MMA_scientist]

Interesting, thanks for posting that.

Gives me a chance to back-test some of my theories.

1- striker v. striker matchups are more likely to result in upsets
2- WEC, TUF and Japan are more unpredictable
3- dont bet against guys you have not seen (the Paulo Thiago rule)

I was on the worng side of 2 of those (I had Galvao to beat High- I still think he won, stupid Japan scoring- and Sokodjou), and was on the positive side on 2 of them as well, Edgar/Sherk and Sonnen/Okami.