UFC 109 Discussion

[MMA_scientist]

its not too early is it?

here is my breakdown (from my blog)... I usually come back in fill in the gaps on the other fights when it is closer to fight time:






UFC 109 FIGHT CARD

Matchups:

Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman
I think Randy will win, but I give Coleman a way better chance than the line dictates. I think Randy should be like -200. They have basically the same career. Both have only lost to the best guys, and both are old men now. The big difference everyone keeps talking about is cardio. Randy will have a little standup advantage. Coleman is going to be the best wrestler Randy has faced though in his career. I do not think his clinch tactics will work well. Neither guy is getting submitted. I think Randy will wear Coleman out with the grappling and take a decision, but I think there is definate value to Coleman. No bet.


Nate Marquardt (No. 2 MW) vs. Chael Sonnen (No. 6 MW)
I already recommended Marquart and I still think he will blow through Sonnen. I just don't see how Sonnen can win. Marquart is way ahead in the striking department, and should have little fear of wading win, because Sonnen has no power. Sonnen can probably get a few takedowns, but wont be able to hold Nate down, and might get subbed. Nate has every advantage, and I think the line @ -275 is a gift.

6U on Nate @ -275


Mike Swick (No. 7 WW) vs. Paulo Thiago (No. 6 WW)
I think this is an interesting fight, style wise. I am going to wait and see the line for this, but I think Swick will win. Swick is very hard to take down, and I don't think Thiago will be able to do it. Swick for all his flaws, does have some power and speed in his hands, though it has been a while since we have seen it. I think Swick will keep him away and win the exchanges. Thiago is getting a lot of love after KOing Koscheck. He put up a good fight against Fitch too... but those guys are grapplers, who like to strike a little. Swick is striker who will grapple if he has to. No bet for now.

Demian Maia (No. 4 MW) vs. Dan Miller
I like Maia and have 5u on him @ -300. The line has moved since then though. Maia should win this fight the same way he always wins, by dragging it down and subbing him. Miller is a tough grappler in his own right, but you have to be world class to survive on the ground with Maia. I think Miller will try to keep it standing and outpoint him. But Miller does not have a lot of power, even though his boxing is ok. I think Maia will eventually drag him down to the mat, either by guard pulling like he did with Herman, or just launching Miller (Sonnen style). I think Miller is very similar to Ed Herman, in that he is a good wrestler that has converted to submission grappling... and I think it will look about the same. I know Maia has been working his striking alot, so hopefully he can survive on the feet, but doesnt think he can strike for real now... anyway, I did make this bet, but I am going to abstain on my recommendation because of my fandom. I am not sure I am objective here.


Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg
This is a tough fight to call, I think Trigg will win. Serra's power is getting a little blown out of proportion. He caught GSP at a weird angle with a forearm. He caught Hughes with a headbutt. Trigg is a MW, Serra is LW. Serra is a good defensive grappler, but hasn't really shown any real submission skills in mma. There is the threat that he could take Trigg's back and choke him out. I think it is a very close fight and could go either way, but I think Trigg will win. No bet.

Mac Danzig vs. Justin Buchholz
I like this fight a lot for Danzig. I researched this fight a ton. Buchholz' 8 wins have all come against the following records: 2-2, 2-4, 3-3, 6-10, 7-6, 2-2, 9-5, 3-2. Not exactly a murderer's row.

In his UFC fights, he was getting beaten soundly for 2 full rounds by Corey Hill, until Hill got crazy and give his back up. He was dropped 2 or 3 times by Stephens, which I cannot hold against him. His striking looks OK, but not powerful. He was a HS wrestler (that's right high school) and lists his strength as wrestling. He was taken down easily in several fights I watched. His ground skills look rudimentary to me. He got his guard passed by Hill a couple of times, and he leaves his limbs out out top.

Danzig has not exactly set the world on fire in the UFC either, on a 0-3 skid. But still, those losses have come to tough tough guys (Guida, Neer, and Miller). He had Miller in trouble a couple of times, and Neer got saved by the bell at the end of the 2nd. His boxing looks good. He stays in the pocket and lands. He also takes some shots. Danzig's best asset is his well rounded ground game. He should sub Buchholz from his back or murder him from top.

Finally, Danzig has fought the best in the world for years now. This fight should be a breather for him. Buchholz is taking a HUGE step up in competition.

5U on Danzig @ up to -300



Ronnys Torres vs. Melvin Guillard
I think Torres will win, by taking him down and subbing him. But Torres has never fought in the US, and I question his comp. Though usually the guys coming up from Brazil are tough, the MMA scene in Brazil is legitimate. No bet.

Phillipe Nover vs. Robert Emerson
I think Emerson will win. Emerson is pretty underrated as a striker, and at least defensively on the ground. Nover's ability lives mainly in Dana White's imagination. So far, I have not seen anything from Nover that would lead me to believe he will win this... but there is not a lot of footage out there either, so who knows. Not enough info on Nover to bet.

Phil Davis vs. Brian Stann
Phil Davis is the next big thing. Mark my words, this guy will make some noise in the UFC. He was an NCAA champ @ Penn State. BUt aside from that, he is super athletic, and big and lanky. He should bury Stann. I say that all the time about Stann, and he keeps surprising me. But Davis was built for MMA. He has big long arms, that can reach your head from inside the guard. He is fast and strong and a great wrestler. All that said, I need to see him fight someone decent, and Stann is a perfect test. I might toss down 1 or 2 units when I see the line. I think it will be close to even, or maybe Davis as a slight favorite... I am hoping no one knows about Davis and he opens as a dog (but it probably won't happen).


Tim Hague vs. Chris Tuchscherer
Tucherer should win, but no bet for me.


Rolles Gracie vs. Mostapha Al-Turk
I might make a bet on Gracie. I need to see some footage which I have not had a chance to do. The hype for him, might skew the line too much. I expect him to open as the favorite, based on 3 wins against cans. So I don't know... maybe a couple units here.


RECAP:

6U on Marquart @ -275
5U on Danzig @ up to -300

Disclosure: I have 5U on Maia @ -300

Line dependant:
Swick (he would have to be a pretty big dog, which won't happen. He would have to clsoe to +200)
Phil Davis (I will put down 1U if he is + anything)

[Mr. IWS]

Never too early my man.

Solid analysis.

I would have been on Handy, had he not been so big a fav. That said, I may get on Nate too.

[Luke]

I'm going to be on Coleman at +325 or higher.

I'll have a write up on the fight sooner or later

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah I think Coleman has done everything Randy has done... and could easily win a decision. I have no idea why Randy is getting so much love.

Fact: Randy is 3-3 in the last 3 years... but really he is 2-4 because Vera beat him. Coleman is no better, but no worse either.

I think Randy should be like -175 or -200 at the most. I am going to be on Coleman to start my underdog project (though it is hard for me because I do think Randy will win).

[Luke]

Yeah I think Coleman has done everything Randy has done... and could easily win a decision. I have no idea why Randy is getting so much love.

Fact: Randy is 3-3 in the last 3 years... but really he is 2-4 because Vera beat him. Coleman is no better, but no worse either.

I think Randy should be like -175 or -200 at the most. I am going to be on Coleman to start my underdog project (though it is hard for me because I do think Randy will win).

I had Randy capped at -200 before the odds came out too.While I think Randy win will I dont think he wins this fight more than 60% of the time .Coleman is one of the fighters who I have watched almost all his fights and Randy is a great match up for him

[SPX]

Good analysis. Thanks for the heads up on Danzig/Buchholz. I will focus some research in that direction. My guess is that they're trying to get Danzig a win. They obviously don't want to let him go or else they would have already, but they know they'll have a hard time justifying keeping him around after going 0-4, TUF champ or not. I also think you may be on target about Emerson/Nover. Like you say, there's not a lot of data to go on with Nover, but Emerson has good stand up and very solid takedown defense.

I do have to take some issues with your Trigg/Serra analysis, though. A few points:

1. You say, "Trigg's a middleweight, Serra's a lightweight." Serra has already said that the cut to LW is too vicious for him and he can't do it anymore. Serra USED to be a lightweight . . . now he's a welterweight. Just like Diego Sanchez USED to be a welterweight . . . now he's a lightweight. So I never get this line of reasoning when people bring it up. People can gain muscle and get bigger, or lose it and get smaller. You are the weight that you are.

2. On paper, Trigg has good wrestling credentials, but I watched several of his most recent fights when I was doing research on his fight against Koscheck, and despite supposedly being a great wrestler, he hasn't been employing these skills much as of late. I've heard some people say they expect Trigg to do to Serra what Hughes did, and I'm not sure that that will be the case at all.

3. Matt Serra beat GSP fair and square, regardless of "odd angles" etc. He beat his ass so bad that GSP TAPPED. Serra also took Hughes down in their fight, something that very few fighters have been able to do, and he gave BJ a damn good run for his money. What has Trigg done in even the remotely recent past that compares?

[zY|]

I've heard some people say they expect Trigg to do to Serra what Hughes did

What lose the fight and be gifted a decision?

[SPX]

What lose the fight and be gifted a decision?

Ha ha.

Well . . . I was more referring to LnP him to death.

[MMA_scientist]

What lose the fight and be gifted a decision?

Ha ha.

Well . . . I was more referring to LnP him to death.

You guys are letting your Hughes hate rule you. Hughes beat Serra soundly. Absent the headbutt (which doesnt score) Hughes totally dominated the fight, except the last 40 seconds.


As for Trigg, I am not betting it... which means I have no confidence in it, my breakdown is more of a "gun to head" pick. Still, it is not based so much on Trigg being good as Serra being worse. I think they both stink, but I think the matchup favors Trigg. I think a better question is what has Serra done outside of the GSP win? Trigg has at least won SOME fights in the last few years. Serra lost to CHRIS LYTLE (IMO) on the TUF finale. Then the GSP fight. Then the GSP beating. Then Hughes beat him up. That's it. He has lost every major fight, ever (save the GSP1 fight). He might put up a hell of a fight, but his style doesnt lend itself to actually winning. A lot of guys look game and get beat alot. So he is game, so what. He allegedly has a big punch, which we have seen finish a fight once.

And I know his win against GSP is "legit" in that it actually happened. But I think it happens maybe once in 20 fights, which qualifies it as a flukey win. He couldnt land that shot again if GSP stood still. In that same sense, Shonie Carter beat Serra. Shonie Carter.

Trigg also loses every major fight. Also lost to Hughes (lets be fair though Hughes 2006 would have murdered and raped Serra). Also lost to GSP.

"You are the weight that you are." I agree. Serra walks around at 170 though. Trigg is like 190-200. Anthony Johnson cuts from 220. Do you honestly think he is the same size as Serra, who cuts no weight at all?

Rant aside, I think it is about even, but I think Trigg will win. I just think Serra's skills are over stated.

[SPX]

[SPX]

What you got to say now, brah?

[MMA_scientist]

Um, he sexy?

[MMA_scientist]

I was going to say he is 4'9"... but I went with sexy.

[MMA_scientist]

FINE. I admit it. I hate his face a lot.

[SPX]

^^^^ Dude, and what were you just saying about Hughes hate?

[MMA_scientist]

That's why it is an admission.

That said, he is 1-4 since 2005, IMO. His only win was a fluke.

hate his face.

[SPX]

1-4? Just because YOU think he lost the Lytle fight doesn't make it so.

As for the REAL losses, who are they to? Parisyan, GSP, and Hughes. You really going to hold that against him?

[MMA_scientist]

I was kidding.

Still, he hasnt done a thing in his whole career outside of fluking out a win over GSP. Not a thing.

[zY|]

I was kidding.

Still, he hasnt done a thing in his whole career outside of fluking out a win over GSP. Not a thing.

True. He "lost" to Lytle just like he arguably won against Penn and Hughes.

[SPX]

True. He "lost" to Lytle just like he arguably won against Penn and Hughes.

That's actually Serra's biggest problem. He leaves his fights too close. Barring the second GSP fight, he's never really been dominated, but then against he's never that dominant himself.