UFC 109 Discussion

[Mr. IWS]

For the Rolles fight, Im looking more at the style of the two fighters. I watched a couple of Beltrans fights (his fight against Tracey Willis looked like a hockey fight), he looks a brawler type of guy, not real techincal. He has a tendancy to try to clinch a guy into the cage, which I think is a terrible style for a guy that has the sub game of Rolles.

I think Gracie will take him down and sub him fast.

[MMA_scientist]

For the Rolles fight, Im looking more at the style of the two fighters. I watched a couple of Beltrans fights (his fight against Tracey Willis looked like a hockey fight), he looks a brawler type of guy, not real techincal. He has a tendancy to try to clinch a guy into the cage, which I think is a terrible style for a guy that has the sub game of Rolles.

I think Gracie will take him down and sub him fast.

yep. That's my assessment too... he obviously has some power- but so does every HW that just chuck punches with no regard for the consequences. I think he will get clinched up, tripped and either RNC or mount gnp stoppage. Straight out of UFC 1.

[Mr. IWS]

I am looking forward to this card more than almost any other. I was pretty excited for BJ/Diego... but I am psyched for this card. I am a jiu jitsu fanboy though.

I got my team in the superbowl and my boys fighting Saturday. I might not leave the basement all weekend. I am probably going to just take cooler down and put a sign on the door for the pizza man "follow crumbs to basement."

[Mr. IWS]

Rolles Gracie -420 to win 100

[SPX]

Rolles Gracie -420 to win 100

Very odd bet for you in my opinion, Zak. I've seen you pass up what I would consider much better deals in the past.

[SPX]

I'm thinking about taking Swick at -200.

[Mr. IWS]

I also havent bet two fights on one card since Machida/Evans and Hughes/Serra.

I got a terrible cold, bordering on the flu. Maybe its all the nyquil/dayquil im taking..LOL

I think Rolles is a solid play here. As GSP says, Im not impressed with Beltrans performance. I think he will actually make it easier for Rolles, closing the distance for Rolles to get a throw/takedown and at that point, its academic.

[Luke]

I'm thinking about taking Swick at -200.

I actually lean Thiago

[SPX]

Indeed. Well good to see you betting and good luck. We're both on Marky Marquardt and I'm staying away from this Rolles/Beltran fiasco.

[Mr. IWS]

Thiago is a tuff dude, I dont know. I think that fight is a pick em IMO. I could see that one going either way.

[SPX]

I actually lean Thiago

I think Thiago might have trouble with Swick's height/reach and on the feet he should be outclassed. On the ground he should have an advantage, at least on paper, but his wrestling is questionable while Swick--a younger, less experienced Swick mind you--held his own with Okami even though he lost.

[Luke]

Thiago is a tuff dude, I dont know. I think that fight is a pick em IMO. I could see that one going either way.

I was thinking Pk too ,thats why I'd lean thiago at +200.I wont be surprised no matter who wins

[MMA_scientist]

I doubt Thiago will be able to get Swick down (or if he does manage to drag him down, he won't be able to hold him). Swick has tough TD defense. I think Swick uses a ton of leg kicks and the jab and wins a UD.

[MMA_scientist]

I went bananas on this card too, I have 21% of my bankroll out.

6u on Nate @ -275
5u on Maia @ -300
5u on Danzig @ -275
5u on Rolles @ -475

[SPX]

I doubt Thiago will be able to get Swick down (or if he does manage to drag him down, he won't be able to hold him). Swick has tough TD defense. I think Swick uses a ton of leg kicks and the jab and wins a UD.

That sounds like a greater than -200 amount of certainty.

[zY|]

I'm not so convinced Thiago won't win the standup as well. He gameplanned the shit out of Kos and you see how that turned out. Guys who use film study are tough to handicap. I really do think this fight is close to a pickem, therefore I'm going with Thiago most likely.

[SPX]

I'm not so convinced Thiago won't win the standup as well. He gameplanned the shit out of Kos and you see how that turned out. Guys who use film study are tough to handicap. I really do think this fight is close to a pickem, therefore I'm going with Thiago most likely.

I don't see how being a punching bag for 3:28 seconds before landing a big punch that lead to an early stoppage was "gameplanning the shit out of Kos."

[MMA_scientist]

I doubt Thiago will be able to get Swick down (or if he does manage to drag him down, he won't be able to hold him). Swick has tough TD defense. I think Swick uses a ton of leg kicks and the jab and wins a UD.

That sounds like a greater than -200 amount of certainty.

I almost put a bet on Swick. I really think its a bad style matchup for Thiago. But he was able to get Volkmann down I think... so maybe I am underestimating his takedowns. I really think Swick will win.

I honestly think I can pick every fight on this card except Serra/Trigg (I am kind of torn on Couture/Coleman too).

I should parlay them all for kicks.


Couture
Marquart
Maia
Swick
*Trigg
Danzig
Torres
Gracie
Emerson
Tucherer

If I had an account at 5dimes funded, I would throw down a $5 on it because I really think they will all win... had the Maia and Marquart bets not come out early, I would probably be on Swick and Emerson too.

Throw a $5 on that for me. Take out Trigg.

[zY|]

I'm not so convinced Thiago won't win the standup as well. He gameplanned the shit out of Kos and you see how that turned out. Guys who use film study are tough to handicap. I really do think this fight is close to a pickem, therefore I'm going with Thiago most likely.

I don't see how being a punching bag for 3:28 seconds before landing a big punch that lead to an early stoppage was "gameplanning the shit out of Kos."

That's because you're biased and hateful.

He and his team watched tape and they found a strategy that they thought would work. Practiced it repeatedly, executed it, won the fight.

GAMEPLANNED THE SHIT OUT OF

[MMA_scientist]

Agreed, I would take Kos in the rematch to win via strikes. He was landing a lot of shots... I won't call it lucky, because he trains to land a shot when a guy makes a mistake... and he did it. But I doubt he would land it again if they fought 5 times.

Not lucky, but unlikely.