Upcoming: JDS/Napao, Belcher/Cote, Kampmann/Saunders

[Luke]

without being a fan, how would you know enough about the sport to have an edge?

I never understood guys that bet on every sport... how can you think you know every sport better than the line makers?

I am a big time mma fan. But I do not think I know striking well enough to correctly handicap striker/striker matchups. I do think I know grappling and takedowns better than the line setters though.

I have no favorite fighters in MMA,favorite teams or favorite players in other sports.This makes me very objective in my decisions when betting . No matter what if you are a fan of a certain fighter you will lean toward that guy because deep down you want him to win.

If you truly someday want to make a living betting you cant be a fan. Just my opinion

You dont have to be a fan to bet sports,you have to know about matchups,situations and which team is better .I cant tell you how many sports and games I have watched trying to figure out an edge and could care less who wins

I am a boxing fan though but I bet maybe 10 fights a year not everytime theres boxing on

[Luke]

I do think I know grappling and takedowns better than the line setters though.

I think it's worth remembering that linemakers don't attempt to set a line as to the true percentages . . . they try to set it correctly as to what they believe the PUBLIC thinks. So you don't really have to know better than the linemakers . . . you just have to know better than the public.

couldnt have said it better myself

[Luke]

without being a fan, how would you know enough about the sport to have an edge?

I never understood guys that bet on every sport... how can you think you know every sport better than the line makers?
I am a big time mma fan. But I do not think I know striking well enough to correctly handicap striker/striker matchups. I do think I know grappling and takedowns better than the line setters though.

like spx said you dont have to know more than the linesmaker ,just more than the public perception

[SPX]

like spx said you dont have to know more than the linesmaker ,just more than the public perception

Even if the linemakers were to set the lines perfectly, the public always moves them anyway, so absolutely you just have to beat the public, which is everything from professional gamblers to weekend warriors who don't really know shit about MMA beyond "Kimbo is awesome."

[MMA_scientist]

I suppose what you guys say is true, but my opinion remains the same.

I don't see how you can have the knowledge in multiple sports to know better than the public.

I think to win long run, you have to have quite a bit of knowledge about what you are betting on. I played baseball and football, but I cannot analyse the game well enough to know when a line is well set and not. MMA, I can do it, but only when there is a strong grappling element to the fight.

I don't know, I think you need a lot of very particular knowledge to beat the public consistently. Or access to someone else that has that knowledge.

[SPX]

I don't see how you can have the knowledge in multiple sports to know better than the public.

I can agree with that. All I bet on is MMA. I can't imagine betting on anything else and actually expecting to win.

[SPX]

Yeah, the announced matchups so far are:

Vera VS Jones
JDS VS Gonzaga
Rumble VS John Howard
Matyushenko VS Elliot Marshall

At the right lines, I think ALL these fights are bettable. I've already got 2u on Jones, and I like both JDS and Rumble up to -300, and Matushenko probably up to -200 or even -250.

Just took Rumble for 3u at -255.

[MMA_scientist]

thanks for the heads up... didnt realize the line opened. I got Rumble for 3U @ -275

[UKDonkbet]

I suppose what you guys say is true, but my opinion remains the same.

I don't see how you can have the knowledge in multiple sports to know better than the public.

I think to win long run, you have to have quite a bit of knowledge about what you are betting on. I played baseball and football, but I cannot analyse the game well enough to know when a line is well set and not. MMA, I can do it, but only when there is a strong grappling element to the fight.

I don't know, I think you need a lot of very particular knowledge to beat the public consistently. Or access to someone else that has that knowledge.

You could say I bet every sport but only use my knowledge on a couple of sports I bet. Most my bets are tails that I pay a certain percentage for the pick. My best friend crushes NBA so I don't have to play for those which is nice. But I believe most guys you see bet every sport are mostly riding tails of bettors who have proven they can beat the sport and sell their picks for percentages.

[Mr. IWS]

Kampmann out.

UFC welterweight contender Martin Kampmann (16-3 MMA, 7-2 UFC) has withdrawn from a UFC 111 bout with Ben Saunders (8-1-2 MMA, 4-1 UFC), and Jake Ellenberger (22-5 MMA, 1-1 UFC) has agreed to take the fight with a little less than seven-weeks' notice.

MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com) learned of the change from sources close to the bout, though the UFC has yet to make an official announcement.

The Kampmann vs. Saunders bout was slated for the main card of UFC 111, which takes place March 27 in Newark, N.J. It's currently unknown if the organization will adjust the bout order following the change.

Kampmann was forced to withdraw after suffering an undisclosed injury in training. Sources close to the fighter assured MMAjunkie.com that the injury was not severe and that Kampmann could return as soon as May, but there was simply no way for the Danish striker to remain on the March card.

Kampmann, a former middleweight contender, had hoped to build on the momentum of a UFC 108 win over Jacob Volkmann in January. Although best known for his standup skills, Kampmann earned the win by submission, the sixth such victory of his career. Kampmann is now 3-1 in the UFC's 170-pound division; the lone came to Paul Daley this past September.

Saunders also recently rebounded from a loss. After dropping a June 2009 bout to Mike Swick, the American Top Team product responded back with a devastating knockout win over Marcus Davis at UFC 106 in November. With additional wins over Brandon Wolff, Ryan Thomas and Daniel Barrera, Saunders has now won four of his five career UFC outings.

Meanwhile, Ellenberger steps in quickly after notching his first UFC win. The 24-year-old (who celebrates his birthday the day after UFC 111) earned an impressive TKO win over veteran Mike Pyle at UFC 108 in January.

Ellenberger debuted for the UFC with a hard-fought decision loss to former WEC champion Carlos Condit at UFC Fight Night 19 in September 2009.

[SPX]

Interesting and kind of sucks. I was looking forward to that fight.

Ellenberger is a pimp, though. This could be his coming out party, but he's going to have to stay out of the clinch.

[Mr. IWS]

Nasty cut on Kampmann