UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

[Mr. IWS]

[Mr. IWS]

Bonner/Soszynski added to the card too:

“The Ultimate Fighter” Season 1 runner-up Stephan Bonnar will lock horns with Krzysztof Soszynski in a light heavyweight match at UFC 110 “Nogueira vs. Velasquez” on Feb. 20 at the Acer Arena in Sydney, Australia. Ten bouts are now official for the promotion’s debut Down Under.

Bonnar will carry a two-fight losing streak into the fight. The 32-year-old Carlson Gracie disciple last appeared at UFC 100 when he dropped a unanimous decision to hall of famer Mark Coleman. Still one of the sport’s most durable competitors, Bonnar has been finished only once -- by reigning UFC light heavyweight king Lyoto Machida -- in 17 bouts as a professional. Victories over Keith Jardine, former World Extreme Cagefighting titleholder James Irvin and “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 3 veteran Mike Nickels anchor his resume.

Based out of Team Quest, Soszynski has delivered six wins in his past seven appearances. The 32-year-old finds himself on the rebound, however, in wake of his unanimous decision loss to Brandon Vera at UFC 102 in August. Soszynski has secured 15 of his 18 wins by knockout, technical knockout or submission and owns notable victories against former WEC light heavyweight champion Brain Stann and UFC veterans Icho Larenas, Dan Christison, Shane Primm and Andre Gusmao. He was a semi-finalist on Season 8 of “The Ultimate Fighter.”

Meanwhile, unbeaten Croatian Goran Reljic will make his first Octagon appearance in nearly two years when he squares off with Arizona Combat Sports standout C.B. Dollaway.

Perfect through eight professional bouts, Reljic last fought in May 2008, when he stopped American Top Team’s Wilson Gouveia on second-round strikes at UFC 84. A back injury that required surgery has kept the 25-year-old away from the cage ever since. Reljic has gone the distance only once and counts five submissions among his eight victories.

Dollaway, a collegiate All-American wrestler at Arizona State University, will have momentum and activity on his side. The 26-year-old has won three of his last four fights, a run of success punctuated by his unanimous decision victory over Jay Silva at UFC Fight Night 19 in September. Dollaway holds other Octagon wins against International Fight League veteran Mike Massenzio and Team Quest’s Jesse Taylor. Six of his past seven fights have ended inside one round.

A heavyweight showdown between Brazilian legend Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and unbeaten American Kickboxing Academy thoroughbred Cain Velasquez will headline UFC 110, along with a middleweight tilt pairing Wanderlei Silva and Michael Bisping.

[MMA_scientist]

I have Stevenson for 5u. Other than that, i don't see anything I am too excited to bet.

[Mr. IWS]

Ill be on Wandy. I may make a small play on Rothwell for that underdog project.

[SPX]

I've got .75u on Nog at -145, .5u on Bisping at +160, 1u on Jardine at +130, .25u on George at +255.

If CroCop's price keeps coming down then I'll take him for take him at -135.

I'd also like to take Krzystof over Bonnar.

[SPX]

Ill be on Wandy. I may make a small play on Rothwell for that underdog project.

Silva's has gotten a good bit better since he first opened.

[Luke]

My leans are Cain ,Cro Cop and Silva right now

[MMA_scientist]

Well I had a terrible, horrible, not good, very bad night @ 109.

I have already bet on Joe Stevenson @ -275 for 5U. I am considering CroCop.

Here is the card:

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (No. 4 HW) vs. Cain Velasquez (No. 9 HW)
Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping
Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos
Ryan Bader vs. Keith Jardine
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Ben Rothwell
Goran Reljic vs. C.B. Dollaway
Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski
Chris Lytle vs. Brian Foster
James Te Huna vs. Igor Pokrajac
Elvis Sinosic vs. Chris Haseman


here are the odds:





Tough card to cap IMO. Give me some ideas.

[Mr. IWS]

Ill be on Wandy myself. Thats about it for me though. I would lean towards Rothwell too, but will lay off I think.

[MMA_scientist]

Ill be on Wandy myself. Thats about it for me though. I would lean towards Rothwell too, but will lay off I think.

I am considering CroCop. How can Rothwell win?

I am not sure CroCop would have beaten any of the guys he has recently lost to, even in his prime. He was always good at beating grapplers, but had trouble with other strikers. Overeem, Kongo, JDS are all solid kickboxers.

I think his downfall might be a little overstated, and is really more a result of some tough matchups.

[SPX]

Well I had a terrible, horrible, not good, very bad night @ 109.

Bad night for most all of us. Didn't you go 2-2? How far down were you at the end of the night? I lost almost 4u. That's a bad night for me.

I have already bet on Joe Stevenson @ -275 for 5U.

I'd be careful with that. I consider George to be a live dog in this one.

I am considering CroCop.

5dimes has CroCop for -135 right now. If that price holds then I'll take him for enough to make a unit once I get home tonight.

Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski

I'm hoping to get a good price on Krzystof here.

[MMA_scientist]

I lost -7.5u @ 109. - 6 on Nate, -5 on Rolles. +1.6 on Maia, +108 on Danzig.
I would make the Rolles bet again if they fought next week. I should have looked more at Nate's fight with Leites. I really though he would be better at getting to his feet.

I do not see how George can beat Joe. George has no power in his hands and is slow to boot. I do not think he can take Joe down, but if he does, I am not sure he will fair any better there. His best grappling is done from the top position, a spot he is unlikely to find against Joe. Joe has good boxing and pretty good power. I expect a walk in the park.


I have considered Sosz. How do you see that fight playing out?

[SPX]

One thing that's impressed me about George is his speed on the ground. He's very fast when it comes to transitioning and finding a good position. On the feet, I'd give it to Joe for sure. On the ground, I think George could surprise us. I got him at +255. I thought it was a good bet.

As for Bonnar/K-Sos, I think this is a bad fight for Bonnar. Bonnar doesn't have the power to knock Krzystof out, but Krzystof can TKO Bonnar for sure if he hits him just right. It it comes down to points, I guess it could go either way.

On the ground, neither guy is terrible OR great, but again, Krzystof has demonstrated some submission skills while Bonnar has not.

[zY|]

I would make the Rolles bet again if they fought next week.

Really? The guy has zero cross training, gassed out, and quit. No way. That was one of the most pathetic "fights" I've seen in the UFC in a long time.

[MMA_scientist]

[quote=zY|]

I would make the Rolles bet again if they fought next week.

Really? The guy has zero cross training, gassed out, and quit. No way. That was one of the most pathetic "fights" I've seen in the UFC in a long time.[/quote:27bo6nle]

he executed his gameplan perfectly, had him mounted with 2 minutes. Beltran escaped, but still.

Rolles was also winning the standup exchnages IMO, until he gassed.

Don't get me wrong, I was pissed. But looking back, he had an adrenaline dump, and just lost his strength. It was only his 4th fight, and he knows everyone was watching him. Cardio makes cowards of us all. I think he would win that fight 9/10 times.

[Mr. IWS]

he executed his gameplan perfectly, had him mounted with 2 minutes.

That is what hurts the most. He did EXACTLY what we thought he would do, except finish.

[zY|]

The fact that he escaped at all would put it far far from the realm of -475 for me.

[MMA_scientist]

The fact that he escaped at all would put it far far from the realm of -475 for me.

I can understand that. I am just looking at the way he escaped... it was horrible. Something that you would do with 1 month of grappling experience. He should have had his arm ripped off... which I guess brings your point full circle. Why didn't Rolles armbar him?

Looked like Tracis Lutter when he fought Silva. He was like "well, I have mount... i think i just flop off to the side here."

[MMA_scientist]

I originally was going to either take Jardine for the underdog project, or nothing at all.

But someone commented (on my blog) about Bader. It kind of convinced me. Isn't Bader going to win a top control decision? I really would not be surprised to see him strike successfully with Jardine either.

Of course Jardine could always KO him. I am sure Jardine can survive on the ground too, but Bader is starting to sound like a good idea. Jardine has only fought a wrestler once, and he lost. That was a long time ago though... he has been fighting all strikers. I think Bader can control him and win.

No?

[SPX]

I put 1u on Jardine @ +130.

I really have no idea how the fight's going to go, but Jardine is the veteran and has beat much better competition. With that said, styles make fights so I could see Bader either landing a big right hand that puts Jardine out or smothering him for 15 minutes.