UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

[Mr. IWS]

I can see Jardine just frustrating Bader for 3 rounds with that awkward style he has, and getting a decision. Like SPX said, he is a vet, and been in with top guys before. I dont think Bader is going to show him anything he hasnt seen before.

[MMA_scientist]

I agree Jardine has been in with and beaten tougher comp, tougher guys than Bader.

BUt stylistically, he has not faced anyone that was dead set on grappling with him. He has managed to somehow avoid all of the wrestlers and bjj guys for several years. He fought Whitehead way back at his TUF finale. How did that fight play out?

I can only remember seeing him on his back once, and I cannot even remember which fight it was.

That said, Jardine can win by landing a big shot and he should have a striking advantage. But with his chin, I put the striking as almost a toss up. Bader has the added advantage of being able to ground him pretty much whenever. So with Bader getting to decide where the fight will take place, Jardine has to beat him both places, or be able to stand up when he gets grounded (which is a real possibility- I don't know though).

You guys are probably right. I am itching to put more into play for 110 though, and I need another fight.

[SPX]

Well you only have one bet out there. There are plenty of other fights left to bet on.

[Mr. IWS]

BUt stylistically, he has not faced anyone that was dead set on grappling with him.

Good point.

But he trains with Rashad, so Im sure that is something they will be drilling a lot.

I cant trust Jardine's chin enough to bet on him, but gun to my head, I would take him.

[MMA_scientist]

Well you only have one bet out there. There are plenty of other fights left to bet on.

I need some persuading... because nothing is jumping out at me.

I have not looked at Reljic/CB. But coming off a long lay off... I dont think I can bet that.

Cain/Nog- I dont know what will happen there.

CroCop is the other one I am considering, but I am worried that CroCop is just going to stand around pissed that Ben is not allowing him to head kick him.

Bonnar/Sosz- I lean to Sosz, but its a pretty even fight IMO.

Silva/Bisping- I dont know. I think Bisping can win if he is smart, but wouldnt be surprised if Wand KOd him.


In short- I got nothing.

[Mr. IWS]

In short- I got nothing.

Probably be best to just lay off the rest of the card. We got a lot of events coming up. We will get our 109 losses back.

[MMA_scientist]

I am now considering just betting every fight on the card (besides the Aussie matchups). They are all close to even.. I think I can turn a profit this way

[MMA_scientist]

[quote=IWS Zak]

In short- I got nothing.

Probably be best to just lay off the rest of the card. We got a lot of events coming up. We will get our 109 losses back.

[/quote:31efe8gs]

I know I will get my loss back. I am not worried about that so much. It is the fact that there is a 4 week dry spell after 110. 4 WEEKS. I am a junkie. I needs my action.

[Mr. IWS]

After that ass raping this weekend, Im considering betting on GSP against Hardy.

Other than that, I dont like another fight after Wandy/Bisping until Penn/Edgar.

[SPX]

I am now considering just betting every fight on the card (besides the Aussie matchups). They are all close to even.. I think I can turn a profit this way

That's the spirit!

[MMA_scientist]

Pulled the trigger on Bader, against all advice.

I went out and looked at what he has actually done. He is 5-5 in the ufc. He has only stopped Forrest. 2 of those wins were split decisions (I think he beat Chuck clearly, but Vera could have gone either way). He is basically a decision fighter... and not a very consistent one.

I took an odds heavy approach. If the "good" Jardine shows up, I still don't know that he can win. Bader should be able to score takedowns at will, which should allow him to steal a round when he needs to. I figure there is a very good chance this is going to the cards, in which case I think Bader will win with his takedown advantage. I think there is just as good a chance that Bader KO's Jardine as vice-versa, even though Jardine is a better striker.

With the odds being so close, I think there is enough advantages for Bader to make a bet. So I did.

[SPX]

How much you take him for?

[poopoo333]

I am now considering just betting every fight on the card (besides the Aussie matchups). They are all close to even.. I think I can turn a profit this way

Any ideas on what picks?

[MMA_scientist]

I am now considering just betting every fight on the card (besides the Aussie matchups). They are all close to even.. I think I can turn a profit this way

Any ideas on what picks?

well I decided against it.

But if i did...


Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (No. 4 HW) vs. Cain Velasquez (No. 9 HW)
Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping
Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos
Ryan Bader vs. Keith Jardine
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Ben Rothwell
Goran Reljic vs. C.B. Dollaway
Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski
Chris Lytle vs. Brian Foster
James Te Huna vs. Igor Pokrajac
Elvis Sinosic vs. Chris Haseman

I really want Nog and Wand to win... but I feel like Cain will take a decision and Bisping will work in some takedowns and take a decision.

[MMA_scientist]

How much you take him for?

originally 3 units... but then I talked myself into the full 5u bet.

[Thewiseman]

[quote=MMA_scientist][quote="zY|":pwex11dj]

I would make the Rolles bet again if they fought next week.

Really? The guy has zero cross training, gassed out, and quit. No way. That was one of the most pathetic "fights" I've seen in the UFC in a long time.[/quote:pwex11dj]

he executed his gameplan perfectly, had him mounted with 2 minutes. Beltran escaped, but still.

Rolles was also winning the standup exchnages IMO, until he gassed.

Don't get me wrong, I was pissed. But looking back, he had an adrenaline dump, and just lost his strength. It was only his 4th fight, and he knows everyone was watching him. Cardio makes cowards of us all. I think he would win that fight 9/10 times.[/quote:pwex11dj]
Here is some good advice. NEVER bet on someone making thier UFC debut as a heavy favorite.

[SPX]

Here is some good advice. NEVER bet on someone making thier UFC debut as a heavy favorite.

What if it was Fedor debuting in a hyped rematch with Crocop?

[SPX]

Just dropped 1.5u on Mirko at -135.

[Thewiseman]

Here is some good advice. NEVER bet on someone making thier UFC debut as a heavy favorite.

What if it was Fedor debuting in a hyped rematch with Crocop?

We know what to expect from Fedor against top competition. Exception to the rule. Adrenaline dump can be a huge factor in a fight and it happens alot for guys making thier debut.

[PITT 22]

My picks for 110 so far:

George Sotiropolous +220 2 units- More of a value pick here. I think this fight could go either way and I love George's Jits. Should be a great fight.

Wand -150 2 units- I dont like Bisping and I feel Wanderlei will catch him similar to the Silva-Jardine fight. Bisping thinks he is some great standup fighter but I dont see it.

Nog -120 3 units I like Nog here because I feel he has far superior standup and Cain relies on his wrestling a ton so if he wants to wrestle one of the best BJJ blackbelts in the history of MMA on the ground, he will be submitted. I have not seen Cain show stand up skills that can compete with Nog and experience wise Nog also gets the nod. I see Cain leaving a limb out and being submitted. He is fighting a whole different level of fighter in Minotauro.

I'm leaning Jardine as well but I need to do more work. Bader's standup in the fight with Red Shaefer was very unimpressive. I thought he hung his hands alot and a vet like Jardine will pick this apart. Also, Keith has an excellent camp with some great wrestlers and they will have him prepared. Plus Jardine could really use a W