UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

[UKDonkbet]

Pulled the trigger on Bader, against all advice.

I went out and looked at what he has actually done. He is 5-5 in the ufc. He has only stopped Forrest. 2 of those wins were split decisions (I think he beat Chuck clearly, but Vera could have gone either way). He is basically a decision fighter... and not a very consistent one.

I took an odds heavy approach. If the "good" Jardine shows up, I still don't know that he can win. Bader should be able to score takedowns at will, which should allow him to steal a round when he needs to. I figure there is a very good chance this is going to the cards, in which case I think Bader will win with his takedown advantage. I think there is just as good a chance that Bader KO's Jardine as vice-versa, even though Jardine is a better striker.

With the odds being so close, I think there is enough advantages for Bader to make a bet. So I did.

I haven't bet on this fight. I think its high variance but I think Bader's side is the only one worthy of an argument. Bader has more tools and more ways to win this fight. I'm positive he will come in much better shape than his fight w/Schafer. Bader tore his PCL and MCL in the first round of his fight against Marrero and took on Shafer 6 months later. I think he will come into this fight 100% healthy, hopefully, and grind Jardine down w/take downs or catch Jardine w/his hands hanging

[Mr. IWS]

anyone know what time this is showing in the states?

[zY|]

It's taking place Sunday afternoon at 2pm in Australia to ensure that it takes place at standard time Saturday night in the US.

[poopoo333]

What do you guys think the Bonnar fight will open at? And do you think the odds on Wandy will get better closer to fight time?

[Luke]

What do you guys think the Bonnar fight will open at? And do you think the odds on Wandy will get better closer to fight time?

I'd open Bonnar at -135 to -150

[SPX]

If Bonnar opens as a favorite then you better believe I'll be on K-Sos.

[UKDonkbet]

can't see Bonnar opening as the favorite. I see it opening close but Sos as a slight favorite, probably will hold value in his opening line nonethe less. i see Sos taking Bonnar down and holding him there as long as he wants.

[MMA_scientist]

Pulled the trigger on Bader, against all advice.

I went out and looked at what he has actually done. He is 5-5 in the ufc. He has only stopped Forrest. 2 of those wins were split decisions (I think he beat Chuck clearly, but Vera could have gone either way). He is basically a decision fighter... and not a very consistent one.

I took an odds heavy approach. If the "good" Jardine shows up, I still don't know that he can win. Bader should be able to score takedowns at will, which should allow him to steal a round when he needs to. I figure there is a very good chance this is going to the cards, in which case I think Bader will win with his takedown advantage. I think there is just as good a chance that Bader KO's Jardine as vice-versa, even though Jardine is a better striker.

With the odds being so close, I think there is enough advantages for Bader to make a bet. So I did.

I haven't bet on this fight. I think its high variance but I think Bader's side is the only one worthy of an argument. Bader has more tools and more ways to win this fight. I'm positive he will come in much better shape than his fight w/Schafer. Bader tore his PCL and MCL in the first round of his fight against Marrero and took on Shafer 6 months later. I think he will come into this fight 100% healthy, hopefully, and grind Jardine down w/take downs or catch Jardine w/his hands hanging

Glad to hear your input. I am really regretting making this bet now. I took a beating at 109 and have a tendency to get maniacally aggressive after a loss. This fight does not fit my profile for a bet at all, I allowed myself to be convinced.

I think it is called "tilt".

[Ludo]

I put a parlay for 3u to win 21.3u on Nogueira/Velasquez to go over 2.5 rounds, Stevenson/Bader/Rothwell to win. More of a value bet than anything, I'm not liking alot of the fights other than the Lytle/Foster and Silva/Bisping affairs. I might pop some down on them later on.

[Luke]

If Bonnar opens as a favorite then you better believe I'll be on K-Sos.

line opened Bonnar is the dog guess I was dead wrong on bonnar being the fav

[Luke]

[SPX]

Yeah, I saw that, I went ahead and put 1.5u on K-Sos at -125.

[Ludo]

I'm liking the fact that Dolloway is that big of an underdog when Goran Reljic was never supposed to fight again ever... I think CB lets Goran take him down and then we'll see how well that back has really healed when CB starts putting the pressure on with the threat of his peruvian necktie that he likes so much. Wouldn't be much of an upset for Dolloway to win

[Mr. IWS]

Im suprised CB is that big a dog too. Reljic has been out a good bit, could be some rust there. Dolloway could grind out a win there.

[SPX]

I also dropped .5u on Foster at +170. He looked really good against Larson, who was the heavy favorite to win that one.

Lytle is a good fighter, but kind of middle of the road. Foster looks like a promising up and comer. I think all of the value has probably been bet out of the line at this point, though.

[MMA_scientist]

I went bananas on 110, totally out of my usual mode.

I think CB has a lot of value. Goran just laid flat on his back when Gouveia grounded him. He has been out 2 years. he just had major back surgery. I had to toss a U on CB

I have

5 on Stevenson
5 on Bader
2 on Soszynski
1 on CB

[Thewiseman]

Parlays for 110
Nog, Silva in rd 1, Stevenson by dec, Bader WID, Cro Cop w/ futures risking .06u

Igor P, Haseman, Dollaway, Lytle, Bonnar, Haseman, Cro Cop in rd 2, Bader in rd 1, Stevenson by dec, Silva in rd 1, and Nog .03u to win 2532.29u

Igor P, Haseman, Dollaway, Lytle, Bonnar, Cro cop, Bader, Stevenson, Silva and Nog .03u to win 23.88u

Cro Cop in rd 2, Bader in rd 1, Stevenson by dec, Silva in rd 1, Nog in rd 2. .03u to win 246.64u

Nog, Silva, Bader, and Cro Cop 1u to win 8.86u

[Mr. IWS]

just a side note, but I thought this was funny: WAR BLACK DY-NO-MYTE!

[SPX]

Dude, I want to see that movie for serious! Michael Jai White is an awesome actor and I think that shit's going to be awesome. Did you ever see Blood and Bone? If not, you should check it out.

[Mr. IWS]

didnt he play Tyson in that old movie "tyson"