In the AFC, road teams are on a run of 5-5 SU & 6-4 ATS in the last decade. In the NFC, home field has been more advantageous, with hosts boasting a record of 4-1 SU & ATS in the L5.
Overall, favorites own an 8-6 ATS edge in the last seven years on Conference Championship Sunday. AFC favorites have carried that edge though, going 5-2 ATS.
The last four NFC Championship games have gone OVER the total. The home team has poured in 30.4 PPG in that span. In that same span, AFC road teams have been the higher scoring of the teams, averaging 27 PPG. Four of the L5 in the AFC went OVER the total.
#1 seeds are holding their own once they advance to this round, boasting a record of 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS since ’03.
In the last six #1 vs. #2 seeded matchups in the Conference Championship Round, OVER the total is 5-0-1.
There have been 10 instances since ’93 in which a seed #4 or lower reached the Conference Championship Round and took on a #1 or #2. Those lesser seeds boast a 6-4 SU & 6-3-1 ATS record in those games.
Hosts have been most reliable when playing as favorites in the -3 to -9.5 line range in Conference Championship Round games, going 13-8 SU & ATS since ’93. Interestingly, the straight up winner is 21-0 ATS in such games, and six straight contests of this type have gone OVER the total.
There have been two total ranges that have produced the most frequent percentage of games going OVER the total. In Conference Championship games with totals in the 37-41 range (average total), the OVER is 7-1-1 since ’93. In games expected to be most high scoring, or those 46 or above, the OVER is 8-2.
Home teams that failed to reach 20 points in the Conference Championship Round have gone 1-9 SU & 0-10 ATS since ’93. If you’ve been keeping track, including the four Wildcard games this year, home teams that fail to score 20 points are 1-33-1 ATS in the NFL playoffs since ’93.
When visitors do reach 16 points, they are 14-6-1 ATS. When they don’t, they are 3-10 ATS.
Home teams that won 14 games or more in the regular season are just 4-4 SU & 2-6 ATS in the Conference Championship Round. What’s more, none of these eight teams scored 30 points in the game.
No road team that won 11 or fewer games (including playoffs) has advanced past this point since prior to ’93, as they are just 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their L5 Conference Championship Round appearances.
Road teams in the Conference Championship games with three or fewer losses in the regular season have advanced to the Super Bowl five straight times, going 5-0 ATS, regardless of the quality of the host opponent.
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