If Rolles Gracie was indeed hurt going into UFC 109, that's the second time in recent history that a Brazilian fighter's stubborn tendency to stay with a fight when he has no business doing so has cost me a moderate sum of money.
It's always hard to stomach when the excuses start flying after the fight, but regardless, Gracie immediately getting the axe was no small consolation for his terrible performance.
The loss on Gracie capped off a perfectly imperfect night at UFC 109; I was absolutely smoked for 0-4 for -7.28 units, easily erasing the results of +5.46 units on my previous round of picks. This brought my public picks record to 95-79 for +20.775 units since UFC 75.
As usual, except where otherwise indicated, all lines below are current market lines from MMAjunkie.com's recommended sportsbook, Bodog. It's easy to open an account at Bodog; you can fund your Bodog account with as little as $25 and bet as little as $1 on fights. Until you've experienced the added excitement of betting on MMA, you really haven't watched MMA. Having your heart race when your fighter steps into the cage – even if you've only got a few dollars in play – is a feeling like none other. (But you should only wager you'd feel comfortable losing. Be sure to keep it fun.)
If you're interested in learning more about betting on MMA, be sure to check out our MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering Guide series, which allows even the most novice bettor to be a long-term winner wagering on MMA. After the up-and-down swings of the past two events, I'll point out especially the article in the series about Bankroll Management. You can also stay up to date with the latest MMA and UFC odds directly via our UFC Odds page.
For those interested in my latest updates on MMA betting, you can check me out on Twitter at twitter.com/performify. Also, be sure to check the MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering forum for a lot of good discussion on upcoming MMA events from a variety of handicappers. For those fans serious about making profits on MMA wagering, this is the place to discuss strategy.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+105) vs. Cain Velasquez (-118)
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (32-5-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC) was widely regarded as one of MMA's top heavyweights while competing against the likes of Josh Barnett and Fedor Emelianenko in PRIDE. He looked less stellar in his early UFC career but appears to have turned the corner with a dominant performance over an aging Randy Couture at UFC 102.
Nogueira has, without question, taken a huge amount of punishment over his career; while he's only 33 years old, it's been well documented by a variety of fighters that absorbing tremendous amount of punishment is extremely detrimental to one's longevity as a fighter. Nogueira in his early career was more than happy to allow opponents to blast away on him from top position as he hunted for submissions from the bottom. This sort of longterm punishment is more than likely responsible for some of the difference we've witnessed in the discrepancy between Nogueira's performances in PRIDE and those in the UFC.
American Kickboxing Academy's Cain Velasquez is an up-and-coming fighter who is primarily a wrestler with who attacks via ground and pound. Velasquez had a decorated amateur wrestling career that included All-American honors twice for Arizona State. Only one of his fights has gone the distance: a unanimous-decision victory over Cheick Kongo at UFC 99. While Velasquez showed a lack of good striking defense by getting blasted several times by Kongo in that fight, he also demonstrated a fantastic chin and was ultimately able to use his significantly superior wrestling skills to bring home the victory. In his most recent fight, Velasquez dominated Ben Rothwell at UFC 104 and stopped him with punches in the opening minute of the second round.
I assume that Nogueira's technical boxing ability will give him an edge in the standup game, which means Velasquez's best strategy for this fight is likely to attempt to use his dominant wrestling skills to neutralize Nogueira's jiu-jitsu skills. He can do so by limiting space with chest-to-chest techniques (such as Brock Lesnar did in his second fight with Frank Mir) and by utilizing his speed advantage to get quickly away from Nogueira's dangerous guard when the fight first hits the ground. It's still obviously a dangerous strategy since Nogueira is obviously quite dangerous on the ground. If he can reverse Velasquez as easily as he reversed Couture, Velasquez could be in quite a bit of trouble. Like most extremely strong wrestlers, Velasquez probably isn't very comfortable on his back. But if Velasquez can use his explosive takedowns to drop to side control, he can likely neutralize a lot of Nogueira's offensive ability.
I don't have a strong opinion on this fight. I see both fighters with clear paths to victory and think that the line is particularly well set. I see Velasquez as a small favorite but Nogueira a dangerous underdog in what should be a close fight.
Nogueira line via 5Dimes, Velasquez via Bookmaker
Michael Bisping (+125) vs. Wanderlei Silva (-140)
Wanderlei Silva (32-10-1 MMA, 2-5 UFC) was the PRIDE middleweight champion, a weight class that was contested at 93 kilograms (205 pounds). Silva amassed an incredible 22-4-1 record in PRIDE, a run that included victories over Dan Henderson, Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and Ricardo Arona. His background at the vaunted Chute Boxe academy gives him strong Muay Thai striking that he combines with a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under Carlinhos Gracie.
Silva rarely utilizes his jiu jitsu in an offensive capacity and instead typically moves forward in blitzkrieg fashion to overwhelm his opponents with flurries of looping power punches, knees and elbows. Silva has lost five of his past six fights, three by brutal "light-switch" knockouts that have caused many to question if "The Axe Murder" has absorbed too much punishment over his vaunted career to continue to compete at the top levels (despite being 33 years old).
Silva's previous fight, against Rich Franklin at UFC 99, was contested at a catch-weight of 195 pounds and was Silva's first career fight lighter than 205 pounds. This is his first fight at 185 pounds.
Michael Bisping (18-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC) is a well-rounded British fighter who won season three of "The Ultimate Fighter" in 2006 at light heavyweight. He competed at 205 pounds until Rashad Evand defeated him at UFC 78; he then dropped down to middleweight. In his most recent fight, Bisping rebounded from a brutal knockout loss at the hands of Dan Henderson to defeat Denis Kang by second-round TKO at UFC 105.
Bisping has two advantages in this fight: he's faster than Silva, and he's younger. Otherwise, unless he just "shows up old," I believe Silva generally outclasses Bisping in all important areas for this fight
Bisping's only likely path to victory in this fight, in my opinion, is to fight a purely defensive fight while peppering his opponent with quick strikes and backpedaling, sprawling and avoiding the clinch at all costs. However, I think Bisping won't be effective in implementing such a game plan. Much like in his previous fight against Dan Henderson, Bisping is facing a more powerful striker who presents a lot more danger than he can dish in return. Without the power to seriously hurt his opponent, Bisping can only attempt to win on points, and he has to so do while avoiding his opponent's "hurtin' bombs."
There's always the danger that Silva "shows up old," less as a function of his age and more a function of his lengthy and violent career. And though Bisping doesn't traditionally have knockout power, if Silva does so, even one of the Brit's clips to the chin could turn out his lights. But other than that scenario, I think Silva has a meaningful edge in this fight and represents a decent play.
Silva line via 5Dimes
George Sotiropoulos (+205) vs. Joe Stevenson (-240)
"The Ultimate Fighter 2" welterweight winner Joe Stevenson (31-10 MMA, 8-4 UFC) looks to continue his climb back toward contender status after falling short in a bid for the belt against B.J. Penn at UFC 80. After losing to Penn, Stevenson fell further down the ladder after posting consecutive losses to Kenny Florian at UFC 91 and Diego Sanchez at UFC 95. However, Stevenson has rebounded since then with consecutive victories over Nate Diaz and Spencer Fisher.
Stevenson is a Marc Laimon disciple and recently opened his own gym under Laimon's Cobra Kai brand in Victorville, Calif. "Joe Daddy" is primarily a strong wrestler with growing BJJ skills; in November 2008 he received his Brazilian ju jitsu black belt from Robert Drysdale (Drysdale's credentials include winning the 2007 Abu Dhabi Absolute Division Championship). But despite the recent promotion from such an esteemed source, Stevenson didn't look like a BJJ black belt while delivering a poor performance on the ground in his match against Florian.
As a fighter, Stevenson is compact, powerful and explosive. His best weapon – outside of his guillotine choke – is his top game, where he can utilize his wrestling skills and punish opponents with powerful elbows. His striking is still progressing; while he's shown decent speed and power for his size, he depends on his guillotine and his wrestling top game to win fights.
Australian George Sotiropoulos (11-2 MMA, 4-0 UFC) is a grappler and holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under fellow Australian John Will, who in turn was a student of Jean Jacques Machado. He carries a five fight winning streak into the contest that goes back to April 2007.
Sotiropoulos competed on the sixth season of "The Ultimate Fighter" and fought for Team Serra. A former welterweight, he is fighting only his second bout at lightweight. He was successful in his lightweight debut and defeated Jason Dent via second round submission at UFC 106.
Formerly training at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas, Sotiropoulos is now training at an Enson Inoue Purebred affiliate Fisticuffs Gym located in Washington state. Sotiropoulos primarily made the move to follow his boxing coach, Leonard Gabriel.
This is a moderate step up in level of competition for Sotiropoulos. He's shown promise in his early fights, but I'm not sure he's going to be able to handle the jump up. Still, I think he's worth a look as a moderate underdog.
I expect the standup game essentially to be a wash. Stevenson appears to hit harder, but Sotiropoulos has the reach advantage and appears more technical in his striking. I think the fight will be decided on the ground. Stevenson isn't effective from his back, and if Sotiropoulos can utilize his size and strength to outwrestle his opponent, or his jiu-jitsu skills to get a reversal, he can win this fight.
Sotiropoulos line via Bookmaker, Stevenson line via 5Dimes
Keith Jardine (+135) vs. Ryan Bader (-155)
Winner of the light heavyweight portion of "The Ultimate Fighter 8," Ryan "Darth" Bader holds a perfect 10-0 professional record and is 3-0 in the UFC with victories over Vinny Magalhaes, Carmelo Marrero and Eric Schafer. Bader was a two-time Division I All-American and a three-time Pac-10 champion in wrestling at Arizona State, and he trains at Arizona Combat Sports alongside fellow UFC fighter C.B. Dollaway.
Bader is a strong wrestler with a stifling top game and moderate striking skills. He faces a significant step up in competition here against Keith Jardine (15-6-1 MMA, 6-5 UFC).
Jardine is an unorthodox striker with underrated wrestling, which is primarily demonstrated in his effective takedown defense. Jardine trains with the excellent Greg Jackson camp in New Mexico. Jardine has lost four of his past six fights (going back to Houston Alexander) and three of his past four. Mixed in with those losses to Thiago Silva, Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and Wanderlei Silva are two recent victories: both close split-decision wins, over Brandon Vera and Chuck Liddell.
I expect Jardine to come in with a superior game plan that involves staying at distance, leveraging his leg kicks and unorthodox strikes, and attempting to avoid getting stuck in the clinch or ending up on his back. For Bader, the game plan is the exact opposite: avoid striking at distance and instead try to overwhelm Jardine and get inside, force the fight into the clinch, and take the fight to the ground if possible.
The big question in this fight is if Jardine's underrated takedown defense will be able to keep the fight standing. On his back, Jardine likely will have little ability to stop Bader from riding out top control to a decision win. If Jardine can generally keep the fight standing or can clip Bader on the way in, he can certainly win by strikes or by outpointing his opponent.
Bader line via 5Dimes
Ben Rothwell (+130) vs. Mirko Filipovic (-142)
Former IFL fighter Ben Rothwell (30-7 MMA, 0-1 UFC) has been competing in professional mixed martial arts since 2001. Training with Pat Miletich and Duke Roufus. Rothwell, primarily a striker, is a hefty fighter who cuts weight to hit the 265-pound maximum for the heavyweight division. Outside of his stint in the IFL, he's probably best known for his loss to Andrei Arlovski at "Affliction: Banned" in mid-2008. Rothwell made his UFC debut against Cain Velasquez at UFC 104 and lost by TKO in the opening minute of the second round.
Rothwell is without question a striker. He doesn't have a wrestling background, has below-average takedown defense, and has a less-than-stifling top game. In fact, Rothwell blew an opportunity to upset Arlovski at "Affliction: Banned" when he couldn't capitalize on top position in the second round of their match and eventually got stood up by the referee for his lay-and-pray technique.
Thirty-five-year-old Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (25-7-2 MMA, 2-3 UFC) was once widely regarded as one of the top heavyweight fighters in the world. After being granted a "gimme" in his UFC debut, the undersized Croatian was subsequently abused by Gabriel Gonzaga and Cheick Kongo, which marked the first back-to-back losses of his career. After stepping outside the organization for a pair of fights, Filipovic returned at UFC 99 to defeat Mustapha Al Turk by first-round TKO. He then faced Junior Dos Santos at UFC 103 and was forced to submit due to strikes in the third round of a one-sided fight.
Bet at 5DimesDespite Filipovic walking away with a win against Al Turk, the fight showcased the rather significant deterioration in Filipovic's skills. A game "Cro Cop" should have been able to walk through several significant holes in Al Turk's standup game, but the once-legendary striker demonstrated a general inability to capitalize on opening after opening. It's unfortunate to say that after several serious injuries and the culmination of an active eight-year fight career, it appears that Filipovic's skills have deteriorated to the point that he's no longer capable of competing at the elite levels of the heavyweight division.
While Filipovic once had elite-level kickboxing skills that would have made this fight extremely one-sided, now "Cro Cop" is only a slight favorite over a mid-tier journeyman heavyweight. Filipovic's once-legendary takedown skills appear to be far behind him, which is possibly the result of him struggling with back injuries for the past several years.
I expect Rothwell to take the fight to "Cro Cop" right away while closing ground and trying to maul Filipovic inside as has been done by his previous UFC opponents. If the fight goes past the opening minutes, Filipovic's size and strength will become significant liabilities; Rothwell is significantly larger and stronger than "Cro Cop," who is significantly undersized for a UFC heavyweight.
If Rothwell had even a slightly better top game, I'd consider him a significant favorite to win this fight simply due to his size. If he's been drilling his top game and his camp is smart, he'll come in and do so. But since he's previously demonstrated very little top control, I expect this to be a toe-to-toe striking bout instead, and as such, this could go either way.
Filipovic line via Bookmaker
Chris Haseman (+130) vs. Elvis Sinosic (-135)
While some others have derided this matchup of two Australian fighters as "pandering to the Australian fanbase," I see this instead as an attempt to recognize two men who were clearly Australia's MMA pioneers and reward them with what's likely one last opportunity to be recognized for their contributions to the sport on the big stage, in their own backyard. I think it's an honorable gesture by the UFC, even if the fight is essentially meaningless otherwise.
Chris Haseman (20-16 MMA, 0-1 UFC) most recently competed in November 2008 and has lost five of his past six fights. Elvis Sinosic (8-11-2 MMA, 1-6 UFC) most recently competed in December 2007 and has lost four of his past six (and six straight in the UFC over the years that he's fought in and out of the organization).
Haseman, who holds a black belt in Australian jiu jitsu under his father Mark Haseman, spent most of his career fighting in the Japanese organization Rings. There, he lost to several notable names, including Matt Hughes, Jeremy Horn and Fedor Emelianenko. Haseman's only previous fight in the UFC was against Evan Tanner at UFC 38, where he lost via unanimous decision.
Sinosic holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu, and was reportedly the first person to perform a gogoplata in recorded MMA competition when he used the move in a losing effort in the Rings organization in October 1997.
Sinosic and Haseman faced each other in Australia in March 1997 in the semifinals of a no-gloves MMA tournament. There, Haseman submitted Sinosic via grinding his chin into Sinosic's eye socket. It's a win that's formally listed on his record as "Submission (chin to the eye)." It's worth noting that was Haseman's second consecutive win via "chin to the eye" submission; he also used the move to win his first fight of that night's tournament. Needless to say, MMA has evolved quite a bit since 1997
I wouldn't bet on this fight with someone else's money. Whomever of these two has deteriorated less in the years since they've last fought will likely come away the victor. Your guess is as good as mine as to whom that is.
Sinosic line via Bookmaker
Krzysztof Soszynski (-175) vs. Stephan Bonnar (+160)
Krzysztof Soszynski (18-9-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC) is a former IFL fighter who trains with Team Quest. After an early career spent fighting primarily in Canada, he competed on the eighth season of "The Ultimate Fighter." Although knocked out of the competition in the semifinals, "The Polish Experiment" defeated fellow cast member Shane Primm via submission at the show's live finale.
Soszynski's most recent fight was a unanimous-decision loss against Brandon Vera at UFC 102. The loss snapped a six-fight win streak for Soszynski, who has proven a tough competitor who is equally comfortable on his feet and on the ground in his fights.
Stephan Bonnar (11-6 MMA, 5-5 UFC) has a solid technical boxing background (he was a former Chicago Golden Gloves boxer) in addition to having solid Muay Thai skills and a purple belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu from the legendary Carlson Gracie. Most notably, in an MMA career that spans almost eight years, Bonnar hasn't ever been stopped except by a young Lyoto Machida by way of a cut.
Bonnar is on a two-fight losing streak after losing unanimous decisions to Jon Jones at UFC 94 and Mark Coleman at UFC 100
I think this is a horrible matchup for Bonnar. Soszynski's size and strength make him dangerous on the ground, and his vicious kimura is incredibly hard to defend. Bonnar may have more technical striking, but Soszynski has power. I think Bonnar drops his third consecutive fight here with Soszynski finishing with his trademark kimura after beating him up on the feet.
Soszynski line via 5Dimes
Brian Foster (+140) vs. Chris Lytle (-145)
Chris Lytle (27-17-5 MMA, 6-9 UFC) is a dangerous veteran and a game, well-rounded fighter. He has never been knocked out, has never been submitted, and has never even been stopped outside of a cut. His past four fights have all gone to decision, but Lytle has the ability to end fights by either strikes or submission. Lytle has won "Fight of the Night" honors in each of his past three fights.
Brian Foster (13-4 MMA, 1-1 UFC) dropped his UFC debut to Rick Story at UFC 103 in September 2009 but rebounded by finishing Brock Larson by strikes at UFC 106. The H.I.T. Squad fighter has progressed nicely in training under UFC legend Matt Hughes while demonstrating improved wrestling and striking in his most recent fight against Larson.
This is a great developmental fight for Foster. Lytle is on the downside of a lengthy career, but he is a tough veteran who is well-rounded enough to challenge his opponent no matter where the fight takes place. Foster should have enough of a wrestling edge to grind out a victory, but he will be in danger at all times of being submitted. Lytle will likely have the edge on the feet, but if Foster's striking has continued to evolve, that edge could be less significant than expected.
Foster is an "OK" play as a slight underdog in my book, but he represents extremely high variance since you're still dealing with a lot of unknowns in his development.
Lytle line via Bookmaker
C.B. Dollaway (+200) vs. Goran Reljic (-215)
Former MMAjunkie.com blogger C.B. Dollaway (9-2 MMA, 3-2 UFC) is an All-American wrestler who now trains at Arizona Combat Sports alongside Ryan Bader. Dollaway is one of four wrestlers from Arizona State currently competing in the octagon; collectively, the other three (Bader, Aaron Simpson, and Cain Velasquez) are 11-0 in the UFC.
Croatian Goran Reljic holds a 8-0 MMA record and is 1-0 in the UFC after defeating Wilson Gouveia at UFC 84. He holds a purple belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under Roger Gracie but also has strong standup skills. Reljic has been sidelined for almost two years due to a back injury. He had surgery to repair a herniated disk and now steps back in to MMA competition for the first time since May 2008. Reljic is big for a middleweight and stands 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds. Formerly training at Gracie Barra UK, Reljic has made the move to Las Vegas and now trains with Randy Couture and Wanderlei Silva.
Dollaway has underperformed expectations in the octagon and faces a very tough challenge here. Reljic's size and strength will help to neutralize Dollaway's wrestling advantag; Reljic is likely the better striker and has the submissions skills to attack Dollaway's notoriously weak submission defense.
The only things keeping me from unloading on Reljic here are ring rust – two years is a long time away from fighting – and his previous injury. Hopefully he's completely recovered from his back surgery, but as we've seen with other fighters over the years, back problems can linger long beyond the time the fighter claims to be ready to return to competition
Dollaway line via Bookmaker
Igor Pokrajac (+160) vs. James Te Huna (-165)
UFC rookie James Te Huna hails from New Zealand and holds an 11-4 MMA record. His most recent fight, in Australia, earned him the Cage Fighting Championships' light-heavyweight grand prix title with a first round KO over onetime UFC fighter Anthony Perosh.
Igor Pokrajac (21-6 MMA, 0-1 UFC), made his UFC debut against Vladimir Matyushenko at UFC 103 while riding an eight fight win streak. There, Pokrajac was outwrestled by Matyushenko and dropped a unanimous decision. The Croatian-born fighter is a well-rounded training partner of Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic and possesses solid Muay Thai skills but is primarily a wrestler.
Pokrajac is weakest off his back as evidenced by his fight with Matyushenko. Te Huna will likely put him there and grind out a boring but easy unanimous-decision victory.
Pokrajac line via 5Dimes
Performify's Picks for UFC 110
* Wanderlei Silva (-140) : 2.8 units to win 2 units
* Krzysztof Soszynski (-175): 3.5 units to win 2 units
* George Sotiropoulos (+205) : .5 units to win 1.1 units
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Originally Posted by SPX
