Evans-Rampage UFC 114

[SPX]

I think Amir/Stun Gun could really go either way.

If Amir can keep it on the feet and make it a striking match--and if he's smart, that's what he's going to want to do I think--then Amir will probably win it. Stun Gun's striking is functional, but I haven't seen anything yet that's overly impressive. With that said, he does have a whole slew of KOs from earlier in his career, so if he hits Amir just right that could be all she wrote.

If the Stun Gun turns it into a grappling match I suspect it won't be good for Amir. On the ground, Amir ends up on this back too much, and I don't think he'll be able to get the sub. Stun Gun's judo/top control wrestling is too good.

[poopoo333]

I think Amir/Stun Gun could really go either way.

If Amir can keep it on the feet and make it a striking match--and if he's smart, that's what he's going to want to do I think--then Amir will probably win it. Stun Gun's striking is functional, but I haven't seen anything yet that's overly impressive. With that said, he does have a whole slew of KOs from earlier in his career, so if he hits Amir just right that could be all she wrote.

If the Stun Gun turns it into a grappling match I suspect it won't be good for Amir. On the ground, Amir ends up on this back too much, and I don't think he'll be able to get the sub. Stun Gun's judo/top control wrestling is too good.

Yeah, I was just watching Kim's fights and he is very aggressive and active in the grappling department. Amir throws a lot of kicks, so I think he might end up on his back quite a bit. I will probably make a small play on Kim. It's a shame, because I am an Amir fan, but I think Kim has a SLIGHT edge.

[AC88]

I'm putting money on Kim for sure.

Amir gets outwrestled all the time. He has good submissions but Kim is a very solid submission specialist himself so I don't see Kim getting subbed. I see Kim taking this by UD and am even happier that he's at underdog odds. TUF hype is gonna win me extra cash!!!

[ManBoobKilla]

what do you guys think about the sanchez vs hathaway fight?? I think that UFC is trying to give diego someone to beat but hathaway isnt a give me fight.

[poopoo333]

Is it safe to say Bisping will hang around better than -400? And what do you guys think about Dan Lauzon and Efrain Escudero? How is Lauzon against wrestlers?

[Ludo]

The better question is how gunshy will Escudero be after almost getting his arm ripped off by Etim.

[ManBoobKilla]

The better question is how gunshy will Escudero be after almost getting his arm ripped off by Etim.

You mean dunham...

[Ludo]

Him too, sorry, I always mix up Dunham and Etim.

[Ludo]

Got 1.25u to win 1u on Rampage, and 1.3u to win 1u on Sodollah so far.

[edman5555]

Why Sodollah?

[Ludo]

Sodollah is part of that system I talked about last week with anchors, journeymen, and wild cards for every division. Sodollah is My middleweight Wildcard and he hasn't failed Me yet. Not to mention I think he can handle anything Kim can throw at him. He has great success with leg kicks, and he mixes things up so much it's hard to get a time on when he's throwing it or where he's throwing it from. He is good at controlling the pace, and controlling the distance. His ground game is good enough I think to stay out of too much trouble if it ends up there.

[SPX]

Is it safe to say Bisping will hang around better than -400? And what do you guys think about Dan Lauzon and Efrain Escudero? How is Lauzon against wrestlers?

I don't think Bisping will be that high. I'm guessing more in the -233 range, but it's hard to say. Both guys are coming off of losses to high level fighters.

[poopoo333]

Amir is a ww

[poopoo333]

Diego is -290 right now..... this won't last long. Do you guys think he is a good bet? I don't know enough about Hathaway.

[SPX]

I don't know a whole lot about Hathaway, but I did see his win against Rick Story. It was impressive enough. Story is no slouch.

My guess is Diego will be too experienced for him, but I'm not sure I'd bet him at -290. That's about a 74% chance to win, and who knows, Diego probably wins this one 3 out of 4 but Hathaway is undefeated and could surprise us.

[poopoo333]

I don't know a whole lot about Hathaway, but I did see his win against Rick Story. It was impressive enough. Story is no slouch.

My guess is Diego will be too experienced for him, but I'm not sure I'd bet him at -290. That's about a 74% chance to win, and who knows, Diego probably wins this one 3 out of 4 but Hathaway is undefeated and could surprise us.

My gut is telling me it is a 5u play, but for Diego, a former LW #1 contender, and a former WW contender before the weight class drop....to be only -290 against a guy with only 2 notable wins against people who aren't even top 20...something has to be up. Maybe the oddsmakers know something we don't...OR it is just a horrible opening line. Diego opened at -588 at one book awhile back.

[SPX]

My gut is telling me it is a 5u play, but for Diego, a former LW #1 contender, and a former WW contender before the weight class drop....to be only -290 against a guy with only 2 notable wins against people who aren't even top 20...something has to be up. Maybe the oddsmakers know something we don't...OR it is just a horrible opening line. Diego opened at -588 at one book awhile back.

You could be right.

The thing about plays like this is that there's a lot of guess work. You're right that Hathaway only has two notable wins, but it could be that he only holds wins over fighters at that level because that's all that's been given him. It's kind of like how going into the Stevenson fight, Sotiropolous's best win was over George Roop or Jason Dent, take your pick. But then he comes in and dominates Stevenson who, as you say about Diego, is a former LW #1 contender.

So while Diego will more than likely win, and perhaps even handily, you gotta be willing to take the gamble.

[poopoo333]

I know exactly what you mean. Just like JDS...huge underdog in his UFC debut, he beat a bunch of "nobodies" before the UFC...ended up winning by R1 KO. Then beats Struve. Then Cro Cop. Then Yvel. Then Gonzaga. I am sure people were counting JDS out before the Cro Cop fight because of "he fought nobodies in Brazil, got a fluke KO over an out of shape Werdum, and he beat a 21 year old". Turns out he is great. Hathaway can be the next "great" thing. I guess we'll see.

[SPX]

Yep, that's pretty much it, PP.

You can definitely make some money if you can get good at figuring those guys out early in their careers.

[SPX]

I see that Rampage is now a very slight underdog on Pinnacle. That's surprising.

I already have 1.25u on him, but if he hits even or better on any of my books then I think I'll take him for another .5u. I think Rampage is going to win this one with his power and experience.