UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

[Luke]

[Luke]

Cant believe Fitch is that low .I'll be all over him for sure at almost a pick

[SPX]

Just put 1.25u on both Fitch and Almeida, each at -115.

Fitch will probably due to Alves what he does to everyone else, and that's get their back and rape them for three rounds.

Brown's a good fighter, but I don't think he's ready for the experience of Almeida. Also, in terms of BJJ Almeida should have the advantage. On the feet? I'd say Brown, but I doubt it will stay on the feet.

[zY|]

Are you guys serious?

I'm pretty confident Alves is going to knock Fitch out.

[SPX]

Are you guys serious?

I'm pretty confident Alves is going to knock Fitch out.

Well then you're chariot awaits. Better jump on Thiago while you can!

[Luke]

.

Fitch will probably due to Alves what he does to everyone else, and that's get their back and rape them for three rounds.

.

I 100% agree

[Luke]

Are you guys serious?

I'm pretty confident Alves is going to knock Fitch out.

Wait makes you think he can stop the takedown attempts?

[zY|]

.

Fitch will probably due to Alves what he does to everyone else, and that's get their back and rape them for three rounds.

.

I 100% agree

I think Alves is going to stuff his takedowns and light him the fuck up on the feet. Fitch is a late starter and was nearly finished by Mike Pierce.

Alves has improved much more since their first fight. Even GSP couldn't keep him down. I don't think GSP-lite is going to fare so well.

It's a shame this is a 3 round fight. I'm super pumped for it.

[zY|]

Are you guys serious?

I'm pretty confident Alves is going to knock Fitch out.

Wait makes you think he can stop the takedown attempts?

Because Fitch doesn't set them up at all and Alves has a tremendous sprawl.

[Ludo]

Personally I can see a case for Alves/Fitch 2 going either way. The problem is that while Alves has improved a few area's of his game he is STILL showing signs of being easily controlled on the ground by wrestlers. Even Derrick Noble had his way with Alves back in their first meeting. Fitch has only ever been knocked out once in his career but Alves is likely to get outworked again and become just another victim of Fitch's smotherfuck technique.

Lets not forget Alves' tremendous striking power. His leg kicks are the kind of thing that ruin fighters.Due to his size he's got knockout power in just about everything he throws. Allowing yourself to get caught by too many shots regardless of where they land isn't advisable to those who want to have lengthy careers in MMA. He does have a good sprawl and a nasty knee for anyone who telegraphs the shoot.

Fitch has other means of taking a fight to the ground than just his shoot though. Alves has looked less than impressive in the clinch especially when he's being pressed against the cage which is exactly where Fitch is likely to want to get this fight early and often. For all his size I haven't seen an overabundance of Alves' bullying people in the clinch.

I honestly see Fitch taking this one, but it's a little too close to call. Alves is still very dangerous standing. His power is tremendous, his kicks and knees can cripple a man. I'm questioning his confidence to use them in this one, alot like the GSP fight. Will he be be too respectful of the takedowns to do his thing?

Personally I like Fitch in this one.

[zY|]

Personally I can see a case for Alves/Fitch 2 going either way. The problem is that while Alves has improved a few area's of his game he is STILL showing signs of being easily controlled on the ground by wrestlers. Even Derrick Noble had his way with Alves back in their first meeting. Fitch has only ever been knocked out once in his career but Alves is likely to get outworked again and become just another victim of Fitch's smotherfuck technique.

Lets not forget Alves' tremendous striking power. His leg kicks are the kind of thing that ruin fighters.Due to his size he's got knockout power in just about everything he throws. Allowing yourself to get caught by too many shots regardless of where they land isn't advisable to those who want to have lengthy careers in MMA. He does have a good sprawl and a nasty knee for anyone who telegraphs the shoot.

Fitch has other means of taking a fight to the ground than just his shoot though. Alves has looked less than impressive in the clinch especially when he's being pressed against the cage which is exactly where Fitch is likely to want to get this fight early and often. For all his size I haven't seen an overabundance of Alves' bullying people in the clinch.

I honestly see Fitch taking this one, but it's a little too close to call. Alves is still very dangerous standing. His power is tremendous, his kicks and knees can cripple a man. I'm questioning his confidence to use them in this one, alot like the GSP fight. Will he be be too respectful of the takedowns to do his thing?

Personally I like Fitch in this one.

Koscheck?

[Ludo]

Personally I can see a case for Alves/Fitch 2 going either way. The problem is that while Alves has improved a few area's of his game he is STILL showing signs of being easily controlled on the ground by wrestlers. Even Derrick Noble had his way with Alves back in their first meeting. Fitch has only ever been knocked out once in his career but Alves is likely to get outworked again and become just another victim of Fitch's smotherfuck technique.

Lets not forget Alves' tremendous striking power. His leg kicks are the kind of thing that ruin fighters.Due to his size he's got knockout power in just about everything he throws. Allowing yourself to get caught by too many shots regardless of where they land isn't advisable to those who want to have lengthy careers in MMA. He does have a good sprawl and a nasty knee for anyone who telegraphs the shoot.

Fitch has other means of taking a fight to the ground than just his shoot though. Alves has looked less than impressive in the clinch especially when he's being pressed against the cage which is exactly where Fitch is likely to want to get this fight early and often. For all his size I haven't seen an overabundance of Alves' bullying people in the clinch.

I honestly see Fitch taking this one, but it's a little too close to call. Alves is still very dangerous standing. His power is tremendous, his kicks and knees can cripple a man. I'm questioning his confidence to use them in this one, alot like the GSP fight. Will he be be too respectful of the takedowns to do his thing?

Personally I like Fitch in this one.

Koscheck?

Not Koscheck.... Round one had zero clinching.

Round two had a brief clinch from about 3:17 left until about 2:45 where Thiago allowed himself and Kos to rest while neither was really working(save for the foot stomps). Thiago turned an over under and pressed Kos to the cage before seperating about 3 seconds later.
Kos shoots for a takedown at about 1:10 left of the second, it fails and he keeps trying for another for about 46 seconds before Josh raises to a bodylock, Thiago has the over under again but he's not doing anything but throwing weak arm punches and getting leaned on.

4:17 left in the third after rocking Koscheck Thiago clinches, pushing Koscheck into the corner they weren't far from before seperating after no strikes or anything with 4:11 left.
Kos initiates a clinch after being rocked again at 3:57 left, Koscheck turns Thiago and pushes Alves' back to the cage at 3:54 before working for a takedown thats stuffed twice. Alves pushes Koscheck away at 3:28 left. There is no more clinch work for the rest of the fight.

Two minutes worth of clinching(roughly) and Thiago was pressed up against the cage for all but about 10 seconds of it. I wouldn't call that bullying Koscheck. He definitely beat Koscheck down and ate him alive standing. I was incorrect when I said he looked less than impressive in the Koscheck fight, simply because he was able to avoid getting taken down except once for about 3 seconds. But the overall message about Alves in the clinch is spot on, including that fight.

[Mr. IWS]

Noice!

Spike TV on Monday announced plans to air two live preliminary matches at UFC 111 “St. Pierre vs. Hardy” on March 27 at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.

A welterweight matchup pairing former middleweight King of Pancrase Ricardo Almeida with Matt Brown will highlight the Spike TV menu, along with a showdown between “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 5 winner Nate Diaz and International Fight League veteran Rory Markham.

Almeida, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Renzo Gracie and New Jersey resident, has earned unanimous decision nods against former IFL middleweight champion Matt Horwich and “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 3 winner Kendall Grove in his last two appearances. A knee injury has sidelined the 33-year-old since August. UFC 111 will serve as Almeida’s debut at 170 pounds.

The resilient 29-year-old Brown has quietly worked his way up the welterweight ranks, winning four of his five bouts in the Octagon. Brown, a product of Jorge Gurgel’s Ohio academy, picked up a third-round technical knockout against “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 9 winner James Wilks at UFC 105 three months ago in Manchester, England.

Meanwhile, Diaz has dropped three of his last four fights, including a split decision defeat to the unbeaten Gray Maynard at UFC Fight Night 20 last month. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt under Cesar Gracie, the 24-year-old Stockton, Calif., native owns noteworthy victories against Melvin Guillard, Kurt Pellegrino and former Ring of Fire lightweight champion Alvin Robinson. Diaz has secured eight of his 11 career wins by submission.

A potent stand-up fighter who has knocked out UFC veterans Brad Blackburn, Mike Pyle and Pat Healy, the oft-injured Markham has not competed in more than a year. He last appeared in February 2009, when he was leveled by Dan Hardy in just 69 seconds. Spawned by the famed Miletich Fighting Systems camp, the 27-year-old Markham has never gone the distance as a professional -- a span of 21 bouts.

[zY|]

^^from what I've heard, the ufc has a deal with spike to air 10 preliminary shows this year

[MMA_scientist]

These are some close fights.

I think Fitch will win, but could see it either way-

I will probably bet on Palhares. Almeida should win, I might take him. He makes me nervous though, as he does not seem like he really wants to fight anymore.

I think Ellenberger will beat Saunders, and have no idea why is the underdog. Is Saunders better off his back than Condit? He might be better in the clinch at this point, but I see a lot of big takedowns. I will probably bet there too.

[SPX]

I think Ellenberger will beat Saunders, and have no idea why is the underdog. Is Saunders better off his back than Condit? He might be better in the clinch at this point, but I see a lot of big takedowns. I will probably bet there too.

My main concern is Ellenberger getting tied up in the clinch, because Saunders' clinch is fucking deadly and he's giving up about 3 inches in height. Ellenberger really has impressed the shit out of me, though. I bet on him against Pyle and he destroyed Pyle.

I'm hoping Ellenberger hits +150. If he does, I'll definitely take him. I might do it even at +130 if I can't get anything better.

[Mr. IWS]

Ive been looking at the Mir/Carwin fight a little today.

I havent heard much about Carwins layoff, which will be over a year when he steps in the octagon again. He is also coming off some minor surgery.

Anyone think this will affect him?

[MMA_scientist]

I don't put too much stock in it personally.

I like Carwin more as I consider it- his preparation for GG will have helped him prepare for Mir. They are both good strikers with poor takedowns and good bjj. Obviously, Mir has looked good, but he is going to have to beat Carwin with strikes which he has definately shown he can do lately. But I still don't but this "Mir is an awesome striker" theory. Where did this come from? Did he suddenly learn how to strike after 10 years in MMA? Cain definately took some of the shine off of his Nog performance, especially if Nog was also sick for Mir. His win over Kongo was still impressive, but less face it, Kongo is not very good on the ground (not so impressed with the guilotine, which, probably would have burned him out if Kongo had survived- but am am surprised that he dropped him with a punch).

So it might be my anti-Mir bias. But I like Carwin more then more I consider it.

[SPX]

I think you are probably being a little hard on Mir. There's really not much doubt that his striking has looked improved, even after 10 years. I agree that Cain's win over Nog has thrown Mir's into question. As for the Kongo fight, it was so short that it's hard to figure out exactly what it tells us about Mir. Could he do it again? I really don't know.

I have 1u on Carwin at +150, but I think this one could go either way.

[zY|]

^^When was the last time you actually watched Carwin's fights. I rewatched all 3 of his UFC fights yesterday, and he looks terrible in all of them. He's very slow, very stiff, throws predictable one twos, and gets smashed in the face by EVERYBODY. Old Skool Neil Wain was lighting him up.

The fact that he has game changing power makes it tough to bet against him, but that is his really his only positive attribute.

EDIT: Ninja'd by SPX, was replying to Scientist.