Bellator 22

[edman5555]

I'm thinking Ben Askren. I just put down 4u or so on him at +115. I think these odds are good for him. Hornbuckle probably won't submit him. He isn't the same calibre of athlete. I remember hearing somewhere that Hornbuckle never really tries to stop the takedown(likes fighting off back). I don't know if thats true but his body is skinny as hell so he's prob going to get taken down anyway. Askren can hold him down

I'm watching hornbuckle-pyle now and hornbuckle is obv tough as hell..I doubt askren can ko him.

Horn could ko askren, either can submit the other one..

I'm leaning toward Askren in the grappling credentials. They are both purple belts in BJJ, just askren is also an olympic wrestler.

Probably a top control dec for askren or a submission win for askren. Only way for Hornbuckle to win is to either Ko him or beat him on the feat in ALL three rounds.

[edman5555]

Askren submitted Toni Linden in ADCC comp.

http://adccbarcelona.com/2009/07/12/toni-linden/


Just read Askren has 4th most pins in NCAA history. Looks like he is good at putting people on their backs.

[zY|]

I have to favor Hornbuckle, based entirely on Askren's slopfest with Thomas. I see him either getting caught with a sub eventually or he will be able to ride out a decision on top. No bet.

gl

[edman5555]

Askren holds an ADCC win against the Europe ADCC champ. That sounds good to me.

[zY|]

MMA ain't ADCC.

[MMA_scientist]

Askren holds an ADCC win against the Europe ADCC champ. That sounds good to me.

He also got subbed in about 20 seconds in his second fight in ADCC (though it was against Popovitch, would who sub any other WW that comes to mind too except maybe GSP). So no shame there.

The guy he beat (Toni Linden), I don't believe is even ranked in bjj. He won the trials but that can be very deceiving, being that it was in Finland. He might have only had to win 2 matches against scrubs... we don't know.

I will say that Linden did have a very rubbery guard, and he was very flexible... so that is very similar to Hornbuckle's guard... It took Askren a while but he did pass and even mounted him before choking him out.

So that bodes well for the style match up with Hornbuckle.

But he also got caught in a triangle by Thomas in the first fight. Triangles are Hornbuckle's thing. So that doesn't inspire confidence. If it wasn't for that triangle by Thomas, I would probably be with you on Askren.

[poopoo333]

[edman5555]

Caught? he didn't tap though

[MMA_scientist]

Caught? he didn't tap though

no, it wasn't even that close... but still.

Pecanha has already beaten Stinson once. So that might be worth a look. I am trying to find it now.

[Mr. IWS]

Im on Conrad for 1000 units.

[MMA_scientist]

Ok. did some research on Stinson/Pecanha...

I could not find a vid of the first fight, but apparently Leo subbed him with a triangle.

BUT, Stinson won the open tryout, edging out Leo, who was second. I don't know if they actually fought a tournament... or if it was liek a TUF tryout where they just watch you spar.

It does say he edged him in "the finals" which makes me think they actually fought.

http://www.bellator.com/ViewArticle....CLID=204903916

BUt I watched some vids of Leo, and he looks really good. I find it hard to believe that Stinson could beat him.

Anyone know how these tryouts work?

[Mr. IWS]

Whats up with that chick fight? The one girl is 3-9 in her career.

[MMA_scientist]

Found this little nugget: "The open tryouts will be held in a cage and will include grappling and bag-striking. Competitors will be judged by Bellator Fighting Championships executives and officials."

So they didn't fight.

Pecanha looks really solid from what I have seen.

[Luke]

Whats up with that chick fight? The one girl is 3-9 in her career.

I looked it up and sherdog says Stephanie Frausto is 2-1 and Lisa Ward is 12-5

[Thewiseman]

Took Orr for .1u

[MMA_scientist]

Probably going to be on Askren now.

His line has moved up tp +140... We all know that he will be getting the takedown. Hornbbuckle has that triangle, which concerns me, but he has never caught it against a grappler of Askren's calibur.
I do think Hornbuckle is a better fighter at this point, but Askren really just needs to avoid the knees on the shot, and the triangle. I think there is a 50% chance he will do it.


1u on Askren @ +140

[poopoo333]

1.6u to win 1u on Hornbuckle

[MMA_scientist]

Proper respect ot Edman555 for setting me on the path.

originally like Hornbuckle here, but the more I look at it, I think Askren is going to win.

I know what the battle here is. The takedown IS going to happen. Hornbuckle does not even try to stop the takedowns. And it wouldn't matter anyway, as Askren is in the top 5 wrestlers in MMA (for the record, Warren is the best wrestler in MMA, IMO. Cormier is up there too... Askren is a 2x, Hendricks is 2x, Conrad is a 2x, Koscheck 1x, Lesnar 1x- those are all of the olympians or NCAA1 champs that I can think of off the top of my head- that are under 35).

So the question is whether Hornbuckle can submit Askren from him back with his very good triangle/armbar/omoplata game. There is also the chance that Askren eats a knee or a head kick coming in.

I think Askren will have enough to avoid the submission. They are both purple belts in bjj. Hornbuckle has a lot more experience in MMA. But his first fight was only in 2006, so I think that rank is probably about right. Askren on the other hand has no discernible skills other than his wrestling/jj game. Luckily, he can impose it on anyone in the world, since he is at the absolute top of the foodchain in takedowns.

Askren has been training his bjj a lot. He went to ADCC in 2009. He defeated Toni Linden, the European trials winner in his first match, then got subbed by Popovitch in his second match. I have said before, Popovitch would be the best grappler in MMA at WW, so there is no shame in that loss, which came by heelhook about 20 seconds in. The Linden win is what I am basing my breakdown on. I cannot find a vid of the match, but I saw it live on the ADCC stream. Linden is a super flixible triangle type, just like Hornbuckle. Askren struggled in teh guard for a minute, pased, mounted, and choked him with an arm triangle. I think there is a very good chance Askren can out position Dan on the mat and maybe even submit him in the same way. If not, he can stall out a win.

With the odds being +140... I think its worth a play.

I actually put 2u pn Askren (not the 1u I said).

[MMA_scientist]

1.6u to win 1u on Hornbuckle

I thought we were boys.

[poopoo333]

1.6u to win 1u on Hornbuckle

I thought we were boys.

I think askren will be subbed in the third.