UFC 115 discussion/odds

[poopoo333]

Final UFC 115 Plays unless I see another prop bet I like that isn't released yet:

1.5u to win 1u on Rothwell
1.7u to win 1u on Danzig/Wiman going distance
3u to win 2u on Thiago
0.25u to win a little over 0.5u on Wiman winning decision
0.25u to win 2.22u on Barry via decision
0.1u to win 49.48u on Liddel by decision, Barry by decision, Wiman by decision, Thiago, Rothwell
0.1u to win 92.85u on Curran, Pyle, Condit, Rothwell, Thiago, Wiman by decision, Barry by decision, Franklin/Chuck going the distance

0.1u on Rothwell/Yvel going the distance @+450

1.45u on Griffin/Dunham going the distance to win 1u
1u on on Macdonald/Condit going the distance to win 2.6u

[zY|]

rofl, apparently he actually did.

http://twitter.com/ufc/status/15873659403

LMAO


Find me the clip I got to hear this

Front page of UFC.com.

'The comedy stylings of Mirko Cro Cop and Pat Barry'

[Thewiseman]

Final UFC 115 Plays unless I see another prop bet I like that isn't released yet:

1.5u to win 1u on Rothwell
1.7u to win 1u on Danzig/Wiman going distance
3u to win 2u on Thiago
0.25u to win a little over 0.5u on Wiman winning decision
0.25u to win 2.22u on Barry via decision
0.1u to win 49.48u on Liddel by decision, Barry by decision, Wiman by decision, Thiago, Rothwell
0.1u to win 92.85u on Curran, Pyle, Condit, Rothwell, Thiago, Wiman by decision, Barry by decision, Franklin/Chuck going the distance

0.1u on Rothwell/Yvel going the distance @+450

1.45u on Griffin/Dunham going the distance to win 1u
1u on on Macdonald/Condit going the distance to win 2.6u

That got hit quick. I got Griffin/Dunham @ even and Condit/Mac @+350

[poopoo333]

I am pretty sure they both will win as well.

[Luke]

Pat Barry quotes from the conference:

All the childhood dreams of being a ninja during halloween have come true

little after 26:00 mark of the conference

i am a buffoon

at the 31:50 mark

[Ludo]

I think we may have finally found a guy with less killer instinct than Cro Cop these days. Certainly makes things interesting...

Barry will probably knock Cro Cop down with a punch and be like "oh shit, sorry man, here get up and lets have a redo"

[poopoo333]

I think we may have finally found a guy with less killer instinct than Cro Cop these days. Certainly makes things interesting...

Good. Hopefully they don't try to KO each other and Barry wins a decision.

[Luke]

He said it's from the ladies.

He's fine. They're not.

LOL the dumb SOB actually did say this

He said

he had a late training in his room and a few ladies made scratches

Then when they asked if he was ok he said:

I'm ok they're not

at the 38:20 mark of the conference


and the sad part is Cro Cop sounded serious

[zY|]

He said it's from the ladies.

He's fine. They're not.

LOL the dumb SOB actually did say this

at the 38:20 mark of the conference


and the sad part is Cro Cop sounded serious

LOL you can watch the highlights of their quotes on the front page like I said.

Since you watched the whole thing though, anything else good in the press conference?

[Mr. IWS]

I think we may have finally found a guy with less killer instinct than Cro Cop these days. Certainly makes things interesting...

Barry will probably knock Cro Cop down with a punch and be like "oh shit, sorry man, here get up and lets have a redo"

LOL, it could be like one of those TKD clips X was posting.

[Mr. IWS]

One last one I just got

they spelled studio wrong.

[SPX]

I'd just like to say that this card kind of sucks for betting.

As it stands, I will probably be loading up on underdogs and hoping for the best. The problem is that I don't really like most of the dogs' chances to win. But I don't like the lines for the favorites, either.

So it will have to be dogs or nothing.

[poopoo333]

SPX, almost all of the dogs are live imo.


Guys, Kampmann is +200. I took Thiago @-150 for 3u. What would be the most profitable way to arb out?

[zY|]

SPX, almost all of the dogs are live imo.


Guys, Kampmann is +200. I took Thiago @-150 for 3u. What would be the most profitable way to arb out?

If you're confident in Thiago, you can put 1.5u on Kampmann and freeroll Thiago. So you win .5u if Thiago wins but if he loses then you push. Or you could put something like 1.7u on Kampmann and you'll win .3u or .4u no matter what.

[MMA_scientist]

SPX, almost all of the dogs are live imo.


Guys, Kampmann is +200. I took Thiago @-150 for 3u. What would be the most profitable way to arb out?

There is no "most profitable" way to arb it.

You can eliminate risk and bet on Thiago for a smaller more likely win. You can eliminate risk and bet on Kampmann for a bigger less likely win. Or you can split the difference and guarantee a small profit.

All options have the same expected value though. Personally, when I arb, which is rare, I like to take a free bet on the underdog, but still guarantee a small win should the favorite win.


Say you have 100 on Thiago to win $66.66 (@ -150). You can put 66.66 on Kampmann to give you a $133 win, a net profit of $33. This is a free bet on Kampmann.

Or you can put $50 on Kampann. A win will get you your $100 back on Thiago. BUt if Thiago wins, you win $66, and net profit overall of $16. This is a free bet on Thiago.

Or you can put $55 on Kampmann. A Kampmann win will give you $110, a net profit of $10. If Thiago wins you get $66.66 (minus 55), a net profit of $11.66. This is splitting the difference and guarnteeing a profit.

I like to go with a bet of like $61 on Kampman. If he wins, I guarantee a good payday, ($22), but if he loses I still get SOMETHING for my trouble, in this case $5.

[poopoo333]

Thanks, still deciding on it. I may as well just stick with my bet on Paulo, I was pretty confident in it.

[MMA_scientist]

Thanks, still deciding on it. I may as well just stick with my bet on Paulo, I was pretty confident in it.

I personally don't arb because my bankroll is too small to make it worth it. I shit on a $10 profit. I would rather go down in glorious flames than win $10. If I was betting thousands, I would arb every time.

[SPX]

I personally don't arb because my bankroll is too small to make it worth it. I shit on a $10 profit. I would rather go down in glorious flames than win $10. If I was betting thousands, I would arb every time.

This is pretty much where I'm at but for me an arb would usually mean more like a $3 or $4 profit. Fuck that.

[Luke]

LOL you can watch the highlights of their quotes on the front page like I said.

Since you watched the whole thing though, anything else good in the press conference?

Nope not a thing .I wanted to watch the whole thing. They just talked about the huge insurance they had to carry for the event, how poor Pat Barry was and how much he looks upto CC,the reason Dana wanted Liddell to retire was his lifestyle not the fact they thought he was done. Thats about it

[Luke]

Franklin is down to -119 at matchbook now.Word must be out about Liddells shape. I wish I had put down like 10 units instead of 1 when I bet Liddell at +140 so I could arb out and get a free bet on Liddell