UFC 115 discussion/odds

[Svino]

As I see the BJJ / Wrestling debate:

1) It happens all the time that a better wrestler controls and beats up a better BJJ guy on the ground.

2) It's also pretty clear that if that gap in submission skill is big enough, wrestler-dude might be looking at a pretty quick sub, making going to the ground at all a bad idea.

3) The catch then is figure out how big a gap is too big.

Certainly even an elite wrestler is no good on the ground against a submission guy without some submission training. Lesnar seemed to cross the threshold between his first and second fights with Mir. Lindland certainly didn't have enough submission defense to stand up to Jacare, but might Jake Shields? I'd be curious to find out.

In general though, at the UFC level, I have come to the point where I consider the "Striking and BJJ" template to be a poor matchup against a wrestler, unless they have either a huge advantage in jiu-jitsu (Maia), or very good takedown defense / ability to get up (Machida, Penn).

[MMA_scientist]

Ok then lets put Lesnar in there with Werdum He's 240 instead of Gracie and the 2009 ADCC champ.Either way Lesnar wins.

This is where we disagree. Lesnar has already been subbed once by Mir who is inferior to Werdum in teh grappling department. Lesnar might win an MMA match, I don't know... but he definately wouldn't win a grappling match. I am not sure where all the confidence in Lesnar's ground game comes from. He has fought only one fighter that was a submission threat, and he went 1-1. Vera also controlled Mir on the ground. How did he do against Werdum?

Also the ADCC winner doesnt get 100K:...
Even if Lendar won the absolute and over 99KG thats only 50k you think Lesnar is going to waste his time for 50k when he makes 5x+ than that per fight?

Well Lesnar is one of about 3 wrestlers in mma that make more than 50k per fight. Lesnar is not even the best HW wrestler from Minnesota to be fighting... Kole Konrad is. Kole Conrad won it all 2x. Brock won it once. I bet Kole Conrad could use 50 large. He should just go use his all world wrestling to win ADCC.

I already gave you Kazushi Sakuraba vs Royler Gracie who was a ADCC champ
And somehow Sakuraba-Renzo Gracie doesnt count even though Renzo was also a ADCC champ.If ADCC champs arent elite who is? Sakuraba is a wrestler and beat both of them

I forgot Renzo his weight class. I will give you Renzo and Royler (even though Sakuraba is an evolved "wrestler"), he didn't CONTROL either of them either. Renzo actually had his back when he pulled out the Kimura. http://www.pridedump.com/pride-fight...(round-2).html They are both smaller men too... Royler won ADCC at 145. He is a FW, and could probably be a BW. This is like Faber fighting Rich Franklin or Dan Henderson. Still... he won.

If BJJ is so dominate over wrestling why doesnt it also work at HW? I'm not saying wreslting is better but its alot closer gap than your making it out to be. I mean a top wrestler that can throw a punch is UFC HW champ

To be fair, wrestling is also different at HW. It is like watching a different sport. Anyone that has ever wrestled or done bjj can tell you that it is different for the big boys. I think it is a combination of weight to strenght ratio and the huge weightclass. All I know is that in wrestling, the HWs pummel a lot more and they rarely shoot. They even have modified HW takedowns. Instead of the ankle pick, you do the knee pick. You do a "fatboy double leg" by not shooting all the way to a knee. Basically, once you get underneath, you are screwed.

Its the same way in bjj. Whoever gets the takedow usually wins. HW's can't triangle each other, because the legar aren't as long when compared to the girth (of the leg and the other guy's back). It is just a lot different, and you don't see very many submissions from the HW's. It's a lot harder to sweep a 300 pounder too. Basically, you can't get them off of you. So at heavyweight, the takedown means a lot more. In submission grappling, you can guard pull and no points are scored.

Since I know that Brock could not pass Werdum's guard, I am almost 100% positive that Werdum would beat him on advantages or evetually sweep him. In MMA, Brock would plant him on his back and probably drop short punches and elbows until the clock wound down and most likely beat him.

So I do think HW wrestlers can control HW bjj guys...

[MMA_scientist]

As I see the BJJ / Wrestling debate:

1) It happens all the time that a better wrestler controls and beats up a better BJJ guy on the ground.

2) It's also pretty clear that if that gap in submission skill is big enough, wrestler-dude might be looking at a pretty quick sub, making going to the ground at all a bad idea.

3) The catch then is figure out how big a gap is too big.

Certainly even an elite wrestler is no good on the ground against a submission guy without some submission training. Lesnar seemed to cross the threshold between his first and second fights with Mir. Lindland certainly didn't have enough submission defense to stand up to Jacare, but might Jake Shields? I'd be curious to find out.

In general though, at the UFC level, I have come to the point where I consider the "Striking and BJJ" template to be a poor matchup against a wrestler, unless they have either a huge advantage in jiu-jitsu (Maia), or very good takedown defense / ability to get up (Machida, Penn).

I think this is the common conception... but still 10 minds have only come up with 2 fights from the 90's where world class grapplers were beaten by wrestlers. Sak beat Renzo and Royler. If it is as common as you say, I would love to hear some examples.

I am not being a wise ass... I genuinely cannot think of any examples. Hughes/Serra was the best example I could come up with.

I do agree that there comes a point where the wrestler can stuff the offense of the bjj guy. I just think the line is much farther out than you guys do. In my opinion, the "wrestlers" that can do it, are also highly skilled submission grapplers. Guys like Randy and Hughes and Sakuraba... I don't think Koscheck, for example, could control Andre Galvao on the ground (I didn't use the obvious example of Marcelo Garcia, because clearly Garcia would submit Koscheck). Or I don't think Rashad (even though he is technically a bjj bb) or Mo could control Braulio or Roger. I know they couldn't.

But Randy, even though he is not as good a wrestler as Mo, I think he might be able to "control" Braulio. Hughes, even though he is not as good a wrestler as Kos, he might be able to control Galvao (though probably not). But Randy and Matt are also good all around grapplers and have some submissions themselves (though there is no way they would be catching a sub). I don't know though, Randy couldn't control Nog or Ricco... he did control Gonzaga though. But that's HW.

[SPX]

I think this is the common conception... but still 10 minds have only come up with 2 fights from the 90's where world class grapplers were beaten by wrestlers.

I think we need to get away from this idea of "world class" because we can argue who is world class and who is not. What makes a world class BJJ guy? What makes a world class wrestler?

How about just "good" wrestlers vs BJJ guys? I mean, Hermes Franca is known as a "good" BJJ guy. Not only is he himself a blackbelt, but he trains others and hands out blackbelts to those who train under him. But Sherk pushed his shit in for 25 minutes.

Plenty of other examples like that. . .

[MMA_scientist]

Well I don't know Franca's bjj credentials, I doubt he has any. I think the issue is that if you don't follow bjj, you lump evey blackbelt that Goldberg hyperboles about together.

To me, world class = some one who has competed and done well in international competition (or even national competition if it is Brazil)

Active World class guys:

Pe De Pano
Maia
Monson
Jacare
Roger
Galvao
Shaolin
Vitor Belfort
Ricco Rodriguez
Werdum
Braulio
Bibiano Fernandez
Leites
Rolles
Renzo
Wilson Reis
Rani Yahya
Robert Drysdale
Dean Lister
Gonzaga


There are hundreds more... but this is off the top of my head.

[MMA_scientist]

Vitor has been controlled several times by wrestlers BTW

David Terrell schooled a few wrestlers and also got controlled by Evan Tanner.

[SPX]

Active World class guys. . .
Renzo

Didn't you say that Renzo was NOT world class?

[MMA_scientist]

^^ I did, but then Luke pointed out that he was an ADCC champ, which I did not know. I always though of him as the "MMA Gracie"

[Svino]

As I see the BJJ / Wrestling debate:

1) It happens all the time that a better wrestler controls and beats up a better BJJ guy on the ground.

2) It's also pretty clear that if that gap in submission skill is big enough, wrestler-dude might be looking at a pretty quick sub, making going to the ground at all a bad idea.

3) The catch then is figure out how big a gap is too big.

I think this is the common conception... but still 10 minds have only come up with 2 fights from the 90's where world class grapplers were beaten by wrestlers. Sak beat Renzo and Royler. If it is as common as you say, I would love to hear some examples.

What I said was common (and I do mean common) was for a wrestler to control and beat up a better BJJ guy, not necessarily a "world class" one. Mo and Rashad might not be able to control Braulio or Roger, but they did fine with Silva and Mousasi.

I am not being a wise ass... I genuinely cannot think of any examples. Hughes/Serra was the best example I could come up with.

I agree with most of what you're saying, I just think you're drawing a pretty small circle. I don't know who the "hundreds of others" would be in your list, but much of the list you gave is composed of heavyweights (who apparently don't count) and guys who barely stuck their toe into MMA. Of the guys that remain, many are so weak in the standup that a wrestler has no reason to even try the ground game and just sprawls and brawls them to death. Vitor is an exception, but he actually has had some problems with wrestlers on the ground. You've got fights like Okami - Lister, where Okami preferred to stand up, but he wasn't exactly sweating bullets on the mat either.

I think we do have a difference when it comes to how much respect we accord pure BJJ credentials if they aren't quickly validated in MMA performance. I'm far from convinced that Gonzaga and Werdum are more dangerous on the ground than Mir and Big Nog. I love Vitor, but I have to admit that he has never looked like a high-level submission threat in MMA. Galvao deserved to win his last fight, but compared to a "random" black belt, he didn't look super-impressive, and I wouldn't be shocked if, Hughes, GSP, or even Koscheck could beat him up on the ground. Of course, they would likely just take the safe route and stay standing, so we'd never find out.

[MMA_scientist]

I love Vitor, but I have to admit that he has never looked like a high-level submission threat in MMA. Galvao deserved to win his last fight, but compared to a "random" black belt, he didn't look super-impressive, and I wouldn't be shocked if, Hughes, GSP, or even Koscheck could beat him up on the ground. Of course, they would likely just take the safe route and stay standing, so we'd never find out.

I agree that it is "common" to see a guy with more bjj get beat by a wrestler. But then again, you are generally talking about a high level wrestler/athlete against a "random" bjj fighter. If you think about something like Warren vs. the Random brown belt he fought a few months ago... Warren won. He was in pretty deep trouble a couple times, but he controlled the fight on the ground and basically nullified the guys offense. But you are are comparing one of the very best wrestlers in the world to a guy who is probably slightly more experienced and athletic than I am.

So I think if you look at your "average" wrestler vs. your average bjj guy, it would play out the same. Basically equivalent training time and athleticism, I favor bjj a lot.

The reason I chose world class guys, is because those are the kind of wrestlers you see in mma. You don't see a lot of high school wrestlers dominating mma. You see collegiate champions and olympians.

As for Galvao versus a wrestler, he fought Jason High on the ground for a round... High narrowly avoided the submission, but was schooled pretty hard. He (wrongly) lost a split decision, but he was not even close to being nullified by a D1 wrestler on the ground.

[MMA_scientist]

Oh and as to Vitor, I don't really consider him world class. But he did get 3rd in Absolutes ADCC in 2000. He didn't even place in his own weightclass though.

Personally, I think he just got a lucky draw, fighting other points grapplers. He went 3-1 and won all his matches on points.

So yeah, I don't really consider him a world class grappler. He certainly wouldn't do well in today's ADCC. He wouldn't even win the qualifiers IMO. But he got an invite and won some matches... so I was just trying to cast a wider net.

It doesn't matter, really.

[sbjj]

You have to keep in mind that being a world class wrestler also means you have the ability to dictate where the fight goes in most instances. That is why you see some Very good grapplers lose stand up wise to wrestlers.

[Luke]

To be fair, wrestling is also different at HW. It is like watching a different sport. Anyone that has ever wrestled or done bjj can tell you that it is different for the big boys. I think it is a combination of weight to strenght ratio and the huge weightclass. All I know is that in wrestling, the HWs pummel a lot more and they rarely shoot. They even have modified HW takedowns. Instead of the ankle pick, you do the knee pick. You do a "fatboy double leg" by not shooting all the way to a knee. Basically, once you get underneath, you are screwed.

Its the same way in bjj. Whoever gets the takedow usually wins. HW's can't triangle each other, because the legar aren't as long when compared to the girth (of the leg and the other guy's back). It is just a lot different, and you don't see very many submissions from the HW's. It's a lot harder to sweep a 300 pounder too. Basically, you can't get them off of you. So at heavyweight, the takedown means a lot more. In submission grappling, you can guard pull and no points are scored.

Since I know that Brock could not pass Werdum's guard, I am almost 100% positive that Werdum would beat him on advantages or evetually sweep him. In MMA, Brock would plant him on his back and probably drop short punches and elbows until the clock wound down and most likely beat him.

So I do think HW wrestlers can control HW bjj guys...

honestly I was just giving you shit MMAscientist until you gave me a better answer than BJJ guys are just better. I have no horse in the race since I dont do BJJ and dont wrestle so really I dont care. I like that you gave a good answer finally ,nice job man

[MMA_scientist]

honestly I was just giving you shit MMAscientist until you gave me a better answer than BJJ guys are just better. I have no horse in the race since I dont do BJJ and dont wrestle so really I dont care. I like that you gave a good answer finally ,nice job man

YES!

I finally have your approval. Thank god.



Also, you owe me a DVD of American Ninja 2.

[zY|]

I think 'BJJ_scientist' would be more accurate.