Strikceforce CBS April 17th fights /discussion

[SPX]

I didnt say Mousasi wont win but if its high odds I'll be on King Mo or nothing

That wasn't just directed at you.

I think I'd that I'd at least guess that Mousasi takes this one 70% of the time, so I'll be on him for sure if his line is -233 or better.

[Mr. IWS]

Mayhem added to the card:

Jason “Mayhem” Miller will face Tim Stout in a middleweight bout at Strikeforce “Nashville” on April 17 at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn., the promotion confirmed with Sherdog.com on Monday.

MMAJunkie.com was the first to report of the matchup, which will be the final fight of the event’s undercard and could possibly air on tape-delay during the main card’s live CBS broadcast if time permits.

Known for his colorful entrances and larger-than-life personality, Miller lost a unanimous decision to Jake Shields at Strikeforce “Fedor vs. Rogers” on Nov. 7 in Hoffman Estates, Ill. The 29-year-old fighter is a former Icon Sport middleweight champion with key victories over Robbie Lawler and Tim Kennedy.

Stout, a Memphis local, dropped an October bout to Roger Carroll via second-round submission at a Clash of the Kings event in Georgia. Stout holds a victory over “The Ultimate Fighter 5” alumnus Brandon Melendez.

Strikeforce “Nashville” airs on CBS’s “Saturday Night Fights” on April 17 at 9:00 p.m. EST.

[Johnny Unreliable]

I'll be all over hendo. Shield's standup is rather terrible for the level he fights at and his wrestling isn't that great either. He certainly has the submission edge but he's primarily a top control guy. Of course he could pull out another standing guillotine or a good sweep or something and win but I see hendo taking this one pretty easily. Never been a fan of shields though. Hopefully the line stays down for hendo though.

I like Mousasi vs King Mo but as others have mentioned way to many unknowns.

[southbaysurf]

Hendo -320
Shields +240

Vegas

[Mr. IWS]

Hendo -320
Shields +240

Vegas

Hendo it is!

[Luke]

Lines up

[Ludo]

I'll be on Hendo and Aoki for sure, I'll probably stay away from Mousasi/Lawal because there are way too many unknown variables. Hopefully these don't shoot all over the place in the next few hours while everyone else picks the lines up.

[Luke]

already moving Hendo to -400 already,cant see it getting much higher though

[Luke]

Gilbert down from -160

[Luke]

anyone else surprised Aoki is a dog?

[Ludo]

Very. Once I can get to the lines(since I don't have a bookmaker account), I'll be on Aoki.

[High5]

So far I've got

Hendo -355 5u
Mousasi -240 3u
Aoki +115 2u

Glad I have an account with BM.

[Luke]

Matchbook has Henderson up at -300 with over 5000 avaiable to bet I just took Henderson -300 for 2 units

6 units to win 2

[Svino]

I am surprised that Aoki isn't favored, but I can't say right now that I feel the odds are wrong either.

In terms of both style and overall skill, I like Hendo over Shields. Shields might have a cardio advantage that could come into play if the fight goes to the 4th and 5th rounds.

[Ludo]

Hendo had no problem going 5 rounds with Rampage, I don't think Cardio will be a huge factor for Shields, especially when the grappling advantage on the whole goes to Hendo. His clinch is worlds better than Shields', his top game could neutralize Shields on the ground if he can manage to get there. He also has the size and striking advantage by far. Hendo has a small chance of losing this fight, but it's nothing we haven't seen him handle before.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ I disagree. Hendo gassed in that fight. He won the first round, and then gassed. He was on bottom of half guard for much of the fight. If he gasses like that against Shields, I think he will get beat.

I don't like any of these lines.

Hendo should win by KO, but I am not taking him @ -400.
Mousasi/Lawal cannot be predicted by anyone with any accuracy.
I mildly like Melendez, but was hoping to get him as a dog. I might make a small play on Gil.

[poopoo333]

This card sucks for betting. I will probably stay away....but what fun is that?

[Mr. IWS]

Ill be on Hendo, Mo, and Gil.

[zY|]

Don't like any of these. Hendo has been taken down by worse wrestlers.

[MMA_scientist]

Don't like any of these. Hendo has been taken down by worse wrestlers.

Agreed. I think there might be some value to Shields. Hendo is getting older too... When there is such an obvious gameplan, it rarely plays out the way we think it will. That said, even if Shields gets him down, it will probably take a few rounds to do anything to Hendo. He is not a submission machine, more of a top control type.