Strikceforce CBS April 17th fights /discussion

[SPX]

I'm with Luke and LudoCain: Surprised Aoki is the dog. I personally am a big Gil fan and was hoping to bet him in this fight, but I won't do it with him as the favorite. As it is, 1u on Aoki at +130.

Also got 3u on Mousasi at -275. I could be wrong, but I think he will win this fight as decisively as he's won any other against tough competition. My only real concern is that Mo could outwrestle Mousasi, but hopefully this one stays standing.

[zY|]

^^i don't expect it to stay standing. Once Mo gets tagged a few times he'll revert to wrestling.

[SPX]

^^i don't expect it to stay standing. Once Mo gets tagged a few times he'll revert to wrestling.

Maybe so. I'm a little nervous about it. I might hedge out of the bet before the fight, but usually once I place a bet I just roll with it for better or worse.

[MMA_scientist]

IMO, there is no real way to know what Mo brings to the table. Mousasi should win the striking, but it is Mo's submission defense and gas tank that will make the difference in this fight. Mousasi has submitted some tough guys... I would THINK Mousasi would win anywhere the fight happens. But I am not willing to bet it, having never seen Mo fight a real threat.

[SPX]

IMO, there is no real way to know what Mo brings to the table. Mousasi should win the striking, but it is Mo's submission defense and gas tank that will make the difference in this fight. Mousasi has submitted some tough guys... I would THINK Mousasi would win anywhere the fight happens. But I am not willing to bet it, having never seen Mo fight a real threat.

I agree that there are a lot of questions.

Still, Mousasi has fought in the US and Japan, he's the champion, he's 28-2-1 with wins over Kang, Manhoef and Jacare, and . . . he's fighting a guy with 6 fights whose biggest win is Mike Whitehead.

[zY|]

IMO, there is no real way to know what Mo brings to the table. Mousasi should win the striking, but it is Mo's submission defense and gas tank that will make the difference in this fight. Mousasi has submitted some tough guys... I would THINK Mousasi would win anywhere the fight happens. But I am not willing to bet it, having never seen Mo fight a real threat.

I agree that there are a lot of questions.

Still, Mousasi has fought in the US and Japan, he's the champion, he's 28-2-1 with wins over Kang, Manhoef and Jacare, and . . . he's fighting a guy with 6 fights whose biggest win is Mike Whitehead.

Well if it's any consolation, I don't think Mo is anywhere near as good as he does.

[SPX]

This guy at least gives it to Aoki:

http://www.fightlaunch.com/mma-blog/str ... ville-mma/

[MMA_scientist]

This guy at least gives it to Aoki:

http://www.fightlaunch.com/mma-blog/str ... ville-mma/

He conveniently forgets to address the striking and takedown advantages that Melendez has.

"Although Gilbert Melendez has strong wrestling & BJJ – his competency is no where near the level of Aoki’s – we confidently give the grappling advantage to Aoki in this most important category. We give conditioning and athleticism to Aoki due to his previous fight showings. It is also clear that Aoki has the advantage when it comes to the level of competition faced by each fighter. The only advantage the Melendez has is that he will be fighting on his own turf in Nashville, TN and I’m pretty sure that the Nashville MMA fans will be behind Melendez."

Talk about missing a major aspect to the fight. I think we all agree that Aoki would win a grappling match.

[SPX]

I'm honestly still shocked that Aoki is the underdog. I'd actually rather be on Gil, but not as a favorite. Aoki as been at #2 in the rankings for forever, while Gil is not even in the top 5. I was thinking the line would be reversed for sure, if not Gil being even more of an underdog.

[Ludo]

2u on Aoki to win 2.7u
2u on Lawal to win 3.8u
.5u on Shields to win 1.5u

I'd have parlayed Hendo with Aoki and probably have left it at that, but the site I was using wouldn't allow parlays for this card. I'm not sure who will win between Lawal and Mousasi, but I'm taking the one with more value in a pretty much 50/50 situation at this point.

Speed goes to Mousasi, but size to Lawal.
Technique in striking goes to Mousasi, but one punch knockout power in favor of Lawal.
Mousasi has better Jiu Jitsu, but Lawal has better Wrestling.

This one is going to come down to lands the bigger shot first. Yeah Melendez has the significant striking advantage, but Aoki has been faced with that his whole career. His striking is for shit but his chin is still tough enough to allow him to get in close, eat a few shots while he works a takedown and then pull things into his world.

[Luke]

^^^^^ Didnt you say the King Mo fight was a no bet? What changed your mind?

[SPX]

Fucking hell!

Mousasi just opened on Sportsbook at -180! Why the fuck didn't I wait?

[Luke]

Anyone know the max bet a sportsbook.com?

[Ludo]

I did say that. What changed my mind was mostly the fact that there was nothing else on this card and I have a good thing going with Strikeforce so far this year, I didn't want to waste the opportunity by staying away from half the card. I'd rather lose 2u on Lawal in a fight that on paper can go either way(and possibly win me 2.7u) than risk 4u on Hendo or 11u on Mayhem to win 1u. I'm still trying to get out of the hole that UFC112 just put me back into again, and Strikeforce has been profitable for me.

[SPX]

I'd rather lose 2u on Lawal in a fight that on paper can go either way

You know, I could be dead wrong, but I'm still not seeing how this thing "on paper can go either way."

I mean, if we were looking at two guys who were completely new to the sport or who had similar levels of experience, then maybe, but considering the fact that Mousasi has like 10000 times more fights than Mo and that he has beat far better competition, then I'm not seeing the rationale for calling this one a toss up in any form or fashion. Maybe Mousasi shouldn't be a ~73% favorite, but there's no justification for saying he should be -115 either.

[Mr. IWS]

Im playing on Mo, just on a gut feeling. No rationale for the play. Mosasi has the better all around game, more experiece, etc.

I think Mo springs the upset though.

[Ludo]

Yes he has fought more, and beaten better fighters than Mo has. However Mousasi has shown struggles, even recently. His record is long but there aren't a whole hell of a lot of names in the weight class he's fighting in right now to it. I always go back to the Gono fight with him. He got dominated just about the whole time he fought Gono, who has forever been mid tier.

Gono lost to Matt Hughes, Jon Fitch, Shogun, Hendo for elite compeitition. He also drew against Chael Sonnen and Ninja. My point is Mousasi isn't unbeatable, and most of his record is filled with less than stellar guys himself(yes he has wins over very very good fighters, but those fights are few and far between). Honestly this fight is much closer than the lines make it out to be.

I think Mo could be the next Bones Jones, and Mousasi just might be the guy he proves himself against for people to say "wow, this kid can go anywhere in his career".

[SPX]

^^^^ You and Zak can go to hell. . .

[Luke]

^^^^ You and Zak can go to hell. . .

Another man crush SPX?

[SPX]

Another man crush SPX?

Nah, a minor one if anything. . .

I do like Mousasi, but I honestly haven't followed his career closely enough to be too attached. King Mo just seems like a straight up ignorant motherfucker to me. Have you seen his post fight interviews? I also remember he got fined $1000 for get Gatorade all over the cage in his post-fight celebration a couple of fights ago.