WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz

[SPX]

Should be some great fights on this one. A few thoughts:


Bowles VS Cruz

AWESOME matchup. Bowles is unbeaten and is one of the few BW fighters who has real knockout power. It's also obvious that he's physically strong and can handle himself no matter where the fight goes. Torres has pretty much dominated every fight he's been in in the WEC, but there wasn't really a single moment during his fight with Bowles that he was in control. Cruz, on the other hand, has only lost to Faber. He doesn't have Bowles KO power, but he sets a ferocious pace and pretty much overwhelmed Benavidez from start to finish in his last fight.

I sense an upset coming. I'd probably go ahead and take Bowles at -135 or better, but at good underdog odds I'm thinking Cruz might surprise us.


Torres VS Benavidez

I really think Torres is going to do the same thing to Benavidez that Cruz did. His pace is similar and he also has the same build, and I think that Cruz's height really gave Benavidez trouble in their fight. I expect Torres to either win a 30-27 UD or get a stoppage. I like Torres all the way up to -200 if not beyond.


Pulver VS Vasquez

I will be honest and go ahead and say that I have never seen Vasquez fight. I only know that he has lost his last two by SD. Pulver hasn't looked great in his last couple of fights, but goddamn it I want him to win this one and if he comes out at good odds then I'm sure I'll at least throw .5u on him just out of loyalty.


Still doing more research so I may have more thoughts on the rest of the card in a few days.

[MMA_scientist]

You know my feelings on the WEC... but I am trying to be a little looser.

I am looking @ Courtney Buck vs. Fredson Paixao- Paixao to win

and Jorgensen should be a lock.

If the odds are right on either or both of those, I am going to make a play.


I agree that Cruz could win that, though I am not betting it.

[Luke]

I have been looking at this card and theres no way imo Bowles will be -135 .I was thinking closer to -300 but maybe I'm crzy

[SPX]

I have been looking at this card and theres no way imo Bowles will be -135 .I was thinking closer to -300 but maybe I'm crzy

Have you seen Cruz fight?

If Bowles is -300 then that should be Cruz around +220 and I would completely be all over Cruz at that price. I'll just say that I only hope you're right, Luke.

[SPX]

I am looking @ Courtney Buck vs. Fredson Paixao- Paixao to win

and Jorgensen should be a lock.

Jorgensen fucked up my bet on Mizugaki last time around.

I'll have to look at these fights. The problem for me and the WEC is that a lot of times you can't find the fights so it's really difficult to do research.

[Luke]

I have been looking at this card and theres no way imo Bowles will be -135 .I was thinking closer to -300 but maybe I'm crzy

Have you seen Cruz fight?

If Bowles is -300 then that should be Cruz around +220 and I would completely be all over Cruz at that price. I'll just say that I only hope you're right, Luke.

i could be way off .I'll be the first to admit I dont know much about WEC and have mostly just watched videos on the fighters

[MMA_scientist]

I am looking @ Courtney Buck vs. Fredson Paixao- Paixao to win

and Jorgensen should be a lock.

Jorgensen fucked up my bet on Mizugaki last time around.

I'll have to look at these fights. The problem for me and the WEC is that a lot of times you can't find the fights so it's really difficult to do research.

I expect Jorgenson to be a massive favorite- probably at least -350.

Buck is like Houston Alexander junior. Paixao is a bjj guy. It is possible for Buck to KO him in the opening minute, but if he does not do so, he will lose. I think the line will be closer, but still pretty steep. I will be on Paixao for anything under -200 for sure though.

[SPX]

Odds up!

[SPX]

I went ahead and took Cruz for .75u @ +235.

Hesitant to pull the trigger on Torres at that price, even though I do think he will win.

Kind of hoping that Pulver will be pushed into underdog territory.

[Thewiseman]

All my bookmaker money is on Anderson Silva. I have to wait for 5 dimes. At current odds, all I like is Vasquez and Roop, maybe Koch.

[Luke]

I went ahead and took Cruz for .75u @ +235.

Hesitant to pull the trigger on Torres at that price, even though I do think he will win.

Kind of hoping that Pulver will be pushed into underdog territory.

Pulver is the dog now. Bowles opened at -310 so I guess I wasnt crazy

[zY|]

I don't know who half of these guys are.

[Luke]

I don't know who half of these guys are.

you and me both

[Mr. IWS]

I usually do horrible betting the WEC, but Torres may be a play for me.

[MMA_scientist]

I usually avoid these events as well, but I am trying to loosen up a little.

Pulled the trigger on Jorgenson @ -390 for 5u- I simply see no way for buck to win.


I am thinking about Cruz at those odds... Paixao came in a lot higher than I expected. I thought he would be like -230, so I am gonna wait there.

[SPX]

Pulver is the dog now. Bowles opened at -310 so I guess I wasnt crazy

Indeed, sir. You were right. I like it. I immediately rushed to Bookmaker and by the time I hit the "submit" button Cruz had already dropped from +250 to +235. I still like that bet, though.

I see Pulver is now +120. If that line holds until I get home, then I'll take him for .5u. Pulver's my man.

If Torres stays at -270 then I'll jump on him, too. I think he wins this one probably 80% of the time, so that's a good price. I just don't think Benavidez is going to be able to deal with Torres' height/reach/experience/pace.

[Thewiseman]

Parlays for WEC
Lammas, Paixao, Castillo, Koch, Jorgensen, Bart, Davis, Vasquez, Torres and Bowles .03u to win 5.93u

Lammas, Paixao, Castillo, Jorgensen, Vasquez, Torres and Bowles .16u to win 1.76u

Bart, Davis, Vasquez, Torres, and Bowles .06u for 1.16u

Total risk for parlays is .26u.

[Ipickdeeznuts2win]

I got 5U on Jorgensen

I am definitely considering and likely to bet on Bowles. Cruz hasn't finished ANY of his last 4 opponents in the WEC, and I highly doubt he is going to start with Bowles. Bowles has a chin of iron, fists of steel, strong wrestling, and strong subs. I just can't see Cruz fending him off for five rounds and winning the fight. Bowles has steamrolled top guys like Torres, Page, Ribeiro, Galvao, and Valencia finishing all of them and dominating. I keep reading about Cruz's reach and everything, but I am sure Torres had a pretty good reach on him as well

I won't even consider touching the Torres fight. For one, that is one of my biggest losses of all time before I learned about betting conservatively. Secondly, he barley beat Mizugaki, and Mizugaki seemed like top of the food chain after that performance only to get a controversial split win over Curran and lose to Scott J. Torres should be able to win but if he can't KO or sub Joseph, then Benavidez may win on points with TD's. Not to mention Torres had his lights turned off in that last fight and was knocked down fairly easily. Not to mention Benavidez has several different subs on his record so his sub defense should be decent, and Torres weakness in wrestling is Joseph's strength which should always be red flag went betting IMO.

I would like to stay conservative on this card because I will be dropping loads (haha) on the UFC on VS card.

[SPX]

Holy shit!

Pulver at +145 on Bodog. I really hope that holds until I get home. I can't imagine it staying that high for long. He's a legend fighting a guy who's 0-2 in the WEC.

[Ipickdeeznuts2win]

Holy shit!

Pulver at +145 on Bodog. I really hope that holds until I get home. I can't imagine it staying that high for long. He's a legend fighting a guy who's 0-2 in the WEC.

I wouldn't touch that line with the governments money! Vasquez may be 0-2 but both of those losses were to really good guys and by a split decision. So that means it was close enough that one judge thought he won. Pulver is a legend that I have much respect for, but the truth is he's fighting because he has to and not because his heart is in it. Pulver has lost his quickness, his confidence, and his chin. I don't think his power is necessarily gone which is why I won't be betting on it.