UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

[MMA_scientist]

Lol scientist, picking and choosing records. You could be a politician.

How do you know I am not?

[SPX]

[quote=MMA_scientist]

Lol scientist, picking and choosing records. You could be a politician.

How do you know I am not?

I am just trying to convince myself, because I actually made a horrible mistake and bet like half of my bankroll on Florian and Nelson. Literally, if one of them loses, it will set me back like 2 years.

Do you know on Bookmaker when you place your bets and you can either choose "risk amount" or "win amount"? Teh default is "wager" which is equivalent to win amount. I buzzed through the process and instead of betting 5units, I bet to win 5units on BOTH guys. So @ -290, I have to bet 29 units to win 5u on each. It was after my 109 loss, so I adjusted my bankroll, and I literally have like 55% of my entire stake on those fights.

I am confident in Roy, but I am sick about the Florian fight. So I am trying to make myself feel better.[/quote:2g88tose]

HOLY SHIT, DUDE!!!!!!!!!!

That is fucked.

Well hey, I'm going to do something that I would never normally do under the circumstances: I'm going to hope Nelson wins. I'd hate for you to lose that cash. That's terrible. What a gut-wrenching situation.

[Svino]

Hoo boy. Well, good luck. I do think those are good fights to bet on. Struve has a striking advantage, but his ability to keep people at bay isn't nearly as good as it could be for someone with his reach. Nelson will get in, take him down, and smother him with fat.

[MMA_scientist]

Ninja'd by SPX.


I tried to delete as to not amass pity when Florian loses, too late.

[SPX]

Ninja'd by SPX.


I tried to delete as to not amass pity when Florian loses, too late.

Oh, whoops. . .

I guess I was so overwhelmed with regret for you by your story that I responded immediately. I would seriously be a nervous wreck between now and fight night if that happened to me.

But look on the bright side, if you win both bets then you'll have an unusually good night.

[MMA_scientist]

What is even worse, I must have been in la la land, because I did it not once, not twice, but 3 times in row... all almost simultaneously... but still.

I was like, wait what? Where did my balance go?

Oh well. If I win both bets I will be doing really damn well for the year.


But to know you are going to root for Roy, even though he is fat... that means something.

[Mr. IWS]

I think your on the right side of both bets scientist.

[MMA_scientist]

Hoo boy. Well, good luck. I do think those are good fights to bet on. Struve has a striking advantage, but his ability to keep people at bay isn't nearly as good as it could be for someone with his reach. Nelson will get in, take him down, and smother him with fat.

That is the hope. But I am nnot worried about Struve's striking. He hits like a little norwegian milk maid (or whatever nationality he is- insert arrogant American comment). And Roy has a rock for a head. And struve has no takedown defense. And Roy has a grappling advantage. I really see no way for Struve to win, absent coming out as a totally different fighter.

[zY|]

Guida, Huerta, Lauzon, and Din Thomas are no joke. They may not quite be among the very elite in the division, but neither is Stevenson, who you count as "legitimate."

Not sure where you're going with this or what your standard of "legitimacy" is.

Cmon, clearly I'm just picking and choosing like he was doing. Where's your brain at these days?

And besides, Din Thomas really? His knee blew out and then Florian choked him out. Not something I'd be bragging about.

And damn scientist, that's fucking terrible. Every time I've made a bookmaker bet I've had to stop and think. That shit is so confusing.

GL

[SPX]

But to know you are going to root for Roy, even though he is fat... that means something.

That's special. . .

I may even do a Nelson-Florian parlay in your honor.

[zY|]

But to know you are going to root for Roy, even though he is fat... that means something.

That's special. . .

I may even do a Nelson-Florian parlay in your honor.

Are you going to donate the winnings to him if it pays out?

[SPX]

Cmon, clearly I'm just picking and choosing like he was doing. Where's your brain at these days?

Oh, my bad. I didn't get it. In fact, I didn't even realize it was you who said it. That new avatar is throwing me off. When the fuck did you decide to abandon the Way of the Ninja? You didn't even consult us or anything. . .

[SPX]

Are you going to donate the winnings to him if it pays out?

Well if it pays out then he'll be sitting pretty so . . . no. . .

But I will say thanks.

And congratulate him on avoiding disaster.

[Luke]

I am just trying to convince myself, because I actually made a horrible mistake and bet like half of my bankroll on Florian and Nelson. Literally, if one of them loses, it will set me back like 2 years.

Do you know on Bookmaker when you place your bets and you can either choose "risk amount" or "win amount"? Teh default is "wager" which is equivalent to win amount. I buzzed through the process and instead of betting 5units, I bet to win 5units on BOTH guys. So @ -290, I have to bet 29 units to win 5u on each. It was after my 109 loss, so I adjusted my bankroll, and I literally have like 55% of my entire stake on those fights.

I am confident in Roy, but I am sick about the Florian fight. So I am trying to make myself feel better.

If I had an uncomfortable amount of on three fighters I'd open a matchbook account and dump off everything I did want. I'm 95% sure you could get the exact line on the other side and wouldnt have to worry about losing a dime.

If interested I'll you out if not GL man

[Svino]

What is even worse, I must have been in la la land, because I did it not once, not twice, but 3 times in row... all almost simultaneously... but still.

Three times? Uh oh. OK, so we've got Florian and Nelson. What's the third bet? Or is it too horrible to mention?

[Luke]

Ludo don't be that guy that goes he steroid route. It's cheap and vindictive and all those guys were later beat up by pride fighters in the ufc.

He'll defend Lesnar next and say he never touched a Roid

[Luke]

Actually Machida entered the UFC about a month before Pride was sold to the Fertittas, so...

Also, he was fighting in Japan in all through 2004-2005, just not in Pride. He was fighting in K-1 and Inoki Bon Ba Ye. So since he wasn't fighting in Pride when he could have been, and was fighting in the UFC before most of these Pride fighters came in, that would sort of make him a UFC fighter by default.

I already said if you put Rampage, Wanderlei, Hendo, and Shogun up head to head against Chuck, Tito, Randy, and Franklin it wouldn't even be close 4 years ago. However four years ago we had alot of differences at work here. A ring vs an Octagon, stomps allowed in one but not in the other, steroids permitted in one and not the other.

I'll be honest I was just arguing and messing with you last night because I couldnt sleep .

[SPX]

Three times? Uh oh. OK, so we've got Florian and Nelson. What's the third bet? Or is it too horrible to mention?

I was wondering the same thing. . .

[Mr. IWS]

Hopefully it aint on Gomi or Struve

[MMA_scientist]

I am just trying to convince myself, because I actually made a horrible mistake and bet like half of my bankroll on Florian and Nelson. Literally, if one of them loses, it will set me back like 2 years.

Do you know on Bookmaker when you place your bets and you can either choose "risk amount" or "win amount"? Teh default is "wager" which is equivalent to win amount. I buzzed through the process and instead of betting 5units, I bet to win 5units on BOTH guys. So @ -290, I have to bet 29 units to win 5u on each. It was after my 109 loss, so I adjusted my bankroll, and I literally have like 55% of my entire stake on those fights.

I am confident in Roy, but I am sick about the Florian fight. So I am trying to make myself feel better.

If I had an uncomfortable amount of on three fighters I'd open a matchbook account and dump off everything I did want. I'm 95% sure you could get the exact line on the other side and wouldnt have to worry about losing a dime.

If interested I'll you out if not GL man

I did consider hedging it out... I don't have a matchbook account though. And I have accounts at 5dimes and Bodog, neither of which I ever use. I was hoping the line would move a little though, because as it sits now, I would take a pretty solid hit on the hedge- I got both @ -290. I thought Roy would go to like -400 but he never moved much. Struve is +250. I still might do it, but I have been waiting for the last minute... that and I am a bit of an action junkie, so it doesn't really bother me much.

My gambling bankroll is pretty tiny compared to the effort I put into it- but it is more about defining my advantage and planning my dream of never working again than it is about money. I have decided that if I have one more year of solid returns, I am going to start funding it for real though.

If you think I could get someone to give me +290 on Matchbook, then it might be time to open an account there.