Originally Posted by SPX
What the fuck happened to Catone?
back injury
What the fuck happened to Catone?
back injury
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
http://www.ufc.com/index.cfm?fa=news.detail&gid=80984"If you look at the evolution of Josh Koscheck, I’ve changed and I’m excited about the transition I made and the sacrifices I made to get here. I can submit guys, I can knock guys out, I can head kick guys, and I’m not gonna have a problem standing toe-to-toe with Paul Daley. He’s not gonna hit me with anything I haven’t been hit with"
Yep, it's official. Koscheck is getting knocked out.
Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shit
Kos will win on the feet anyways, or at least hold his own at the very least. Kos will win this. I am a Daley fan, and not really a Kos fan just for the record. I am considering adding 2 more units on Kos to make it a 5u bet
I saw this before I made a 3u bet on Kos @ -271.
I think Koscheck is just talking. You don't become a great fighter by fighting to your opponent's strengths... which may explain why Koscheck has never had a title shot despite being near the top for several years.
I am going to be pissed if Koscheck stands with Daley... because I do think he can stand for a while, and has a chance of landing a KO blow himself, the odds are definately in Daley's favor in a striking match.
He has to know he is one win away from a title shot. I would think he would not roll the dice and have to start over again. Of course, he is obviously delusional.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Jason MacDonald will now fight John Salter replacing David Loiseau who replaced Nick Catone
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
Damn, J-Mac getting the call back into the UFC. I wonder if this is just supposed to be a one-time thing.
I heart cock
Damn, J-Mac getting the call back into the UFC. I wonder if this is just supposed to be a one-time thing.
Probably has alot to due with whether he wins or not
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
Jason MacDonald will now fight John Salter replacing David Loiseau who replaced Nick Catone
Pretty soon, Seth Petruzelli will get the call.
Probably there running out of people .I have a feeling Salter is behind this
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
My breakdown:
Short version:
3U on Koscheck @ -271
Possible bets: Salter at close to even, Hendricks under -300, Lawlor up to -350, Hague to -225. I might change my opinion on any of these, and I won't bet all of them.
Long version:
Matchups:
UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Lyoto Machida (No. 1 LHW, No. 4 PFP) vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (No. 2 LHW)
Everyone assumes that this fight will be close again. I am not so sure. If Bendo/Cerrone taught us anything, it is that rematches don't always even resemble the first fight. Machida is not error prone though, so I doubt he will be getting finished quickly. Shogun also is very tough to hurt. I am not betting the fight, I do think Machida can win by using his grappling more though. He has very good top control... I think he will use the same tactic though. No bet.
Josh Koscheck (No. 5 WW) vs. Paul Daley (No. 7 WW)
The onoy question about this fight is whether Koscheck is going to willingly stand with Daley. He does have the annoying habit of fighting to his opponent's strengths. But every time he has faced a dangerous striker, he has went to his bread and butter. He did stand with AJ for longer than I would have liked. Even though he was winning the striking exchanges, I don't like guys who stand and trade. One punch is all it takes. There is no risk at all on the ground. I feel Koscheck has the tools to win this 9/10 times. My only hesitation is that he stoof with Johnson for a couple of minutes, as if to prove a point. Guy, Paulo Thiago KO'd you... just take it down. 3u on Kos @ -271
Sam Stout vs. Jeremy Stephens
Power vs. technique. A lot of you guys are going with Stout here, and I think he will win. But I just hate fights where there is a very high probability of a KO. Stout has the footwork and jab to keep Stephens at bay, but 15 minutes is a long time to avoid getting hit. Stephens has big power. I can't recall anyone successfully standing with Stephens. The fight I can't seem to recall is the Spencer Fisher fight. All of Stephens losses have come against grapplers, except Fisher. If Fisher outboxed him, then I think Stout can do the same. Still no bet.
Kevin “Kimbo Slice” Ferguson vs. Matt Mitrione
Mitrione should win this if they stand and trade. Don't be shocked if Kimbo tries to take him down though. Mitrione is a lot bigger and from all appearances, he hits pretty hard. I can't believe I am saying this, but @ -115, I might bet on this fight. It goes against everything I believe, there is no way to know what will happen, but I think Mitrione should be a favorite here. Kimbo is only like 220. Mitrione is big and tall and has power. Somebody talk me out of this please, because I am seriously considering it- but I know it is dumb.
Patrick Cote vs. Alan Belcher
I can't call this one. A lot of guys are picking Belcher, mainly because Cote has been out. I think Cote's striking might be a little underrated. You can beat Cote by taking him down. Belcher has a varied attack and has length, but Cote has big power and rock chin. Has anyone ever hurt Cote standing? Anderson didn't. But Belcher has looked good in his last few outings. I am not sue here, I think this is very hard fight to predict. I think if I had to predict, I would take Cote.
Tom Lawlor vs. Joe Doerksen
Lawlor looked great in his loss to Aaron Simpson, and I was excited to put a lot on him against Creduer. Doerkson is a veteran who will put up a fight anywhere the fight goes. I don't know what the line will be, but I expect Lawlor to be heavily favored. Doerkson is not a pushover though. I want to bet on Lawlor, but it will depend on the line. 3-5u on Lawlor @ -350 or better
Marcus Davis vs. Jonathan Goulet
I just don't trust Davis. For whatever reason, I have never been sold on him. Goulet is probably the easiest man alive to knock out. He has literally the worst chin in the world. I expect the line to reflect the obvious, Davis by KO. That said, Goulet has shown some flashes... I think Davis will probably win easy, but unless he magically comes in under -200, I am not betting it.
Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs. Michael Guymon
This is a grappler/grappler matchup. Yoshida is best known for his spectacular KO losses to Koscheck and AJ. Guymon was on a 5 fight win streak before losing to Rory McDonald a few months ago. Yoshida should be the favorite here, but I think it is competitive. Guymon has some personal problems, but he has beaten some very tough guys. Either guys could have value as a dog. My head says Yoshida, but my gut says Guymon.
Joey Beltran vs. Tim Hague
I think Hague will take this by size and technical superiority. Beltran ruined my month by "beating" Rolles Gracie (I don't know that Beltran beat Gracie as much as Gracie quit). I still maintain my assessment of Beltran, and I would still bet on Rolles to beat him in a rematch. I see him as a sloppy brawler. Rolles was actually getting the better of the striking against him until he spontaneously collapsed. The only hesitation is that sloppy brawling might work against Hague. He was KO'd in 7 seconds by a wild haymaker (from roid monster Todd Duffee who I rolled with a few years back and he was about my size 200# max, fyi. Did not even resemble the WWE look alike you see today). Brawling kind of works for heavyweights. So there is some risk there. This on is line dependent. I will take Hague -225 or better.
Johny Hendricks vs. T.J. Grant
TJ Grant is a submission machine. If you look at his record, all he does is sub everyone he fights. He is a bjj borwn belt and a Provincial champion wrestler in Canada. His standup is decent. He is a good fighter, all around. Taking down Hendricks is going to be difficult. Hendricks is the new Dan Henderson, with submissions. This is a very very tough fight for Hendricks.
Originally, I was all over Hendricks in this one, but after watch Grant fight, it is closer than you might think. I think Hendricks will be the better wrestler, but Grant has a dangerous guard. I think Hendricks will have the better striking, but he has been suceptible to knees, and Grant has a pretty stong MT plumb. He has finished at least one fight from knees.
I am still probably going to be on Hendricks, but not up to -400. Probably to -300.
Jason McDonald vs. John Salter
This should be a good fight, both very solid grapplers, but Salter has the wrestling background to go along with his jiu jitsu, being an NAIA champion. I think he will win a top control decision. Salter has better pure grappling credentials, but Jmac has made it work in MMA. JMac impressed me by surviving with Maia on teh ground for like 6 minutes. I might take Salter based on the favorable matchup if the line is close, which I think it will be.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Good reading on the shitter. Thanks Scientist.
Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shit
At the time, I thought the odds for Shogun and Machida's first fight were just about right. I thought:
1) Shogun wouldn't be able to take Machida down.
2) Shogun wouldn't be able to finish Machida standing up.
3) Shogun had weak cardio. (combining with #1 and #2 to give him very little chance)
4) Shogun was the type of aggressive fighter who might fall into Machida's counter-trap and get picked apart.
I might have been right about 1 and 2, but Shogun gave us a great demonstration of a dedicated athlete's ability to fix their cardio, and most importantly showed that he could follow a patient gameplan that kept him exactly away from Machida's strengths while picking at his weaknesses. Like many observers, I thought he won that first fight 3 rounds to 2.
Listening to people's thoughts about the rematch, there seem to be two major schools of thought:
1) Shogun did well in the first fight by coming out with a strategy Machida didn't expect, but he's lost his chance. Machida is an elite striker, and now that he has had time to develop a counter to the leg-kick plan, Shogun's only little window to victory will be closed.
2) There's no real reason to expect the next fight to be anything other than a replay of the first fight, with Shogun being a slight favorite to win it, as he did before. The fact is, Machida only does one thing. He may do it very very well, but it has a weakness, and Shogun found it and used it. There's no proof that Machida can cover that weakness while still retaining what made him an effective fighter. In fact, he probably can't.
I could imagine either being right, but of the two, I think the second is probably much closer to the truth, which is why I will be on Shogun for this fight. Ignore what Rua is saying in the press about brand new strategies - it's just talk. He has shown he has the patience and skill to beat Machida on the feet, and I don't see the fight spending much time on the ground. I don't think Machida was being lazy or unskilled in his susceptibility to Shogun's leg kicks, I think it is just a fundamental weakness in his fight strategy - the only strategy he has ever been effective at using. I'm very skeptical that Machida has much flexibility in his gameplan. If he did, he probably would have done something more aggressive in the final rounds of their last fight, where any reasonable corner team would have told him he was behind.
I disagree with this. I'm sure you probably mean it in the sense that his striking style is very specific and that's what he relies on, but you can't say that anyone who has good striking AND good wrestling and submission skills "only does one thing." Look at Sokoudjou. He's well aware of Machida's ability to go anywhere with the fight.
Fighters who only do one thing, in my mind, are guys like Yvel, Volkmann, McFedries, etc.
I heart cock
Yeah. What I really meant was: he only goes into a fight with one gameplan.
Good stuff Svino... I am part of the theory #1 crowd. I don't see how Shogun is going to beat him again. I think Machida has better secondary skills as well, so if the fight looks entirely different (say a grappling match) I like Machida there as well.
Shogun basically has leg kick him for 5 rounds and avoid being countered again. It is certainly possible, but I think the likelyhood is less than 50%.
I agree that Shogun has shown he can stand with Machida though. I agree that Machida cannot effectively change his striking style at this point. But it is not like Shogun was just lighting him up... he lost 2-3 rounds.
In a pure standup fight again, either Machida is going to figure out what he did to win his rounds and duplicate it 5 times, or Shogun is going to figure out how to duplicate his success in every round. Since I think much of Shogun's success was based on fatigue, I think Machida will come out and strike until he gets tired, then try to grapple in the later rounds. Just one man's theory.
No way I am betting this fight though. It is impossible to predict a consistent winner.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
^^What makes you think Machida can outgrapple Shogun? I know Machida is very underrated on the mat, but that's where Shogun does his best work. He's billed as a striker, incorrectly imo, because the guy is just brilliant on the ground.
Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shit
Shogun via leg lock.
^^
Machida has a grappling win over world calibur Rafael Lovato Jr. Beating Lovato is like the equivalent of beating Maia in bjj. Its not Roger or Jacare, but its pretty damn close. Lovato is widely regarded as having the best guard in the world.
But it is more that I think the Machida has better takedowns and takedown defense, he has also show good top control. So I think he can get on top and stay there. Shogun is a good grappler too, but Machida has shown the ability in MMA and bjj to dominate positions and avoid the sub (and in MMA in America- incorrectly IMO- if you are on top, you are winning) My feeling is that if Machida can avoid being swept of subbed by Lovata, Shogun doesn't have anything for him.
Here's the match: http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/mma....ail&gid=149392
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
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