UFC 117

[Luke]

Sonnen (R-Or) backers=wasting there money imo .

Ever since Edgar-Penn people are trying to find the next huge upset. This isnt it move on

I'll take him at +400.

When it comes time for UFC 117 I'll give you +400

I dont even think Sonnen can win 1 out of 10 times.

I rarely bet anything over -300 unless I think its a lock and I'll be betting Silva in this one .

[Svino]

Sonnen really does seem to be going nuts, though. Referencing his twitter account, then denying it was his several times, only to reference it again a little later? Claiming he was never beaten at MW? I wonder how much of a toll this "2006 legal issue" is taking on his sanity.

[Luke]

I'm wondering what the legal issue is

[Thewiseman]

Was that serious, or sarcastic. Was there not anyone on Sonnen (R-Or) at those dog odds?

I took Sonnen by dec @+500 for a unit.

[Thewiseman]

Zy, Silva might be easier to take down than Nate. Think about your guys arguments here. You give Sonnen (R-Or) no credit. You just say Nate had a bad gameplan and bad TDD. Where is your proof? Maybe Sonnen (R-Or) just has the best damn takedowns in the MW division. After all, he also took down Okami, does he also have bad TDD? MMA Scientists said Sonnen (R-Or) can not play in anyones guard(anyone with a legit guard) But my belief is that Ntae has a wicked guard, but that Chael has improved his top game, and is just a much gritier fighter now than he was years ago.

If you think Silva is going to be harder to takedown than Yushin or Nate, I think many of you are in for one more surprise.

I am really torn on this fight. On one hand , I see Sonnen getting the take down and mauling Silva, Silva gasses, and he keeps it up for 5 rds. But its also hard to see him doing it for 5 rds without getting KO'd or subbed. Silva is getting better with using his footwork to avoid the TD. I currently have Silva 7.2u @-360, but I took that knowing I can hedge if I want. I do think Sonnen is the best wrestler @ middleweight. And I dont think Nate has a wicked guard. I was also on Sonnen vs Okami for 2u.

[sbjj]

Scientist, so Nate has a crappy guard because he has not subbed someone from it in 10 years. Besides Chael, who has had Nate on his back for more than 15 seconds. Come on man. ONCE AGAIN, Nate does not have bad TDD. He was just put on his back by a VERY good MMA wrestler who would not be denied the takedown.

The Sonnen that was tapped earlier in his carreer would have tapped against Nate also. Fighters do improve. Weird to see a guy being judged on fights that happened years ago, but most recent fights just being ignored.

BTW Scientists, you now say that Nate is a favorable matchup for Chael, but that is in hindsight. that way you can never be wrong, you can always just explain it away. I'm also not looking at this as a pick em, because it is not. IMO, Chael @ big dog odds is the wise play here. Any bettor can play -300 or -400 guys. But those guys eventually get themselves in trouble.

Scientist, you also say that you would not be surprised to see Chael beat him. Well, then hell, the argument is over...We agree, Chael is a good bet at big dog odds.

[sbjj]

Actually, if we are going back into ancient history...Go watch some of Nates earlier fights....much earlier, he actually has a good guard game.

[SPX]

Weird to see a guy being judged on fights that happened years ago, but most recent fights just being ignored.

I think Chael losing to Maia has a lot to do with the notion of Chael's lack of sub defense continuing to propagate unto the present day.

[zY|]

Why so adversarial? Pretty clearly you're infringing on my territory here.

[sbjj]

Zy, Silva might be easier to take down than Nate. Think about your guys arguments here. You give Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) no credit. You just say Nate had a bad gameplan and bad TDD. Where is your proof? Maybe Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) just has the best damn takedowns in the MW division. After all, he also took down Okami, does he also have bad TDD? MMA Scientists said Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) can not play in anyones guard(anyone with a legit guard) But my belief is that Ntae has a wicked guard, but that Chael has improved his top game, and is just a much gritier fighter now than he was years ago.

If you think Silva is going to be harder to takedown than Yushin or Nate, I think many of you are in for one more surprise.

I am really torn on this fight. On one hand , I see Sonnen (R-Or) getting the take down and mauling Silva, Silva gasses, and he keeps it up for 5 rds. But its also hard to see him doing it for 5 rds without getting KO'd or subbed. Silva is getting better with using his footwork to avoid the TD. I currently have Silva 7.2u @-360, but I took that knowing I can hedge if I want. I do think Sonnen (R-Or) is the best wrestler @ middleweight. And I dont think Nate has a wicked guard. I was also on Sonnen (R-Or) vs Okami for 2u.

Wiseman, just because you have not seen it, does not mean he does not have it. Nate worked guard in some of his earlier fights, before he became a beast. Kinda reminds me of the people he think GSP's striking stinks because he is not stopping dudes with strikes anymore. Why the hell would Nate work guard, when he can take dudes down and smash them. BUT, he did work guard early in his carreer when he needed to.

[sbjj]

Weird to see a guy being judged on fights that happened years ago, but most recent fights just being ignored.

I think Chael losing to Maia has a lot to do with the notion of Chael's lack of sub defense continuing to propagate unto the present day.

I agree, but I think it was more of a case of Chael just getting surprised. I think that was one of the sweetest subs eva.

[sbjj]

I think the legal issue has to do with a real estate deal of sorts. I think I read that somewhere. Whitewater type thing.

[Thewiseman]

Zy, Silva might be easier to take down than Nate. Think about your guys arguments here. You give Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) (R-Or) no credit. You just say Nate had a bad gameplan and bad TDD. Where is your proof? Maybe Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) (R-Or) just has the best damn takedowns in the MW division. After all, he also took down Okami, does he also have bad TDD? MMA Scientists said Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) (R-Or) can not play in anyones guard(anyone with a legit guard) But my belief is that Ntae has a wicked guard, but that Chael has improved his top game, and is just a much gritier fighter now than he was years ago.

If you think Silva is going to be harder to takedown than Yushin or Nate, I think many of you are in for one more surprise.

I am really torn on this fight. On one hand , I see Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) getting the take down and mauling Silva, Silva gasses, and he keeps it up for 5 rds. But its also hard to see him doing it for 5 rds without getting KO'd or subbed. Silva is getting better with using his footwork to avoid the TD. I currently have Silva 7.2u @-360, but I took that knowing I can hedge if I want. I do think Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) is the best wrestler @ middleweight. And I dont think Nate has a wicked guard. I was also on Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) vs Okami for 2u.

Wiseman, just because you have not seen it, does not mean he does not have it. Nate worked guard in some of his earlier fights, before he became a beast. Kinda reminds me of the people he think GSP's striking stinks because he is not stopping dudes with strikes anymore. Why the hell would Nate work guard, when he can take dudes down and smash them. BUT, he did work guard early in his carreer when he needed to.

Im sure he has a good guard, but not a wicked one. I seen his guard for 15 min vs Sonnen.

[MMA_scientist]

The Sonnen (R-Or) that was tapped earlier in his carreer would have tapped against Nate also. Fighters do improve. Weird to see a guy being judged on fights that happened years ago, but most recent fights just being ignored..

It is just that nothing has changed. He still trains with the same guys at the same camp that does not have a bjj coach. He has been fighting forever, I just don't buy the theory that he just magically got better all of the sudden.

BTW Scientists, you now say that Nate is a favorable matchup for Chael, but that is in hindsight. that way you can never be wrong, you can always just explain it away. I'm also not looking at this as a pick em, because it is not. IMO, Chael @ big dog odds is the wise play here. Any bettor can play -300 or -400 guys. But those guys eventually get themselves in trouble...

I disagree with both statements, but really and totally disagree with the second one.

Miller was a tough matchup for him, Chael won that with his hands and sprawl. Paulo Filho was a tough match for him as well. I am honest about these things. I am wrong all the time and freely admit it.

MMA gambling is not about showing how awesome you are at picking underdogs. I make almost all of my money on the favorites. It is about beating the line. If you bet -600 fighters and win 9/10, you are going to make money. There is no inherent superiority to picking dogs, and it doesn't mean you have some super MMA knowledge. Its about winning at a greater percentage than the line indicates. I promise you I can beat the line picking nothing but -400 fights over a year. I will side bet you $1000 that I can make a profit using any line you want up to -600.

Scientist, you also say that you would not be surprised to see Chael beat him. Well, then hell, the argument is over...We agree, Chael is a good bet at big dog odds.

No, we don't. I don't give a 30% chance. I would not be surpised, but I wouldn't take him unto +450 or so.

[poopoo333]

"Miller was a tough matchup for him, Chael won that with his hands and sprawl."

I watched that yesterday...Chael won by taking him down and pounding him for 3 rounds.

[AC88]

I think Chael is a great bet. But I do believe Silva is going to be harder to take down than Marquardt. Not because he has better wrestling, but because of his movement and distancing. He only got taken down once by Leites and didn't get taken down once against Maia. However, I think the odds of Chael LNP'ing Silva to a decision are much better than the odds of Silva submitting and or knocking him out.

[sbjj]

"Miller was a tough matchup for him, Chael won that with his hands and sprawl."

I watched that yesterday...Chael won by taking him down and pounding him for 3 rounds.

You beat me to it.

[sbjj]

The Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) that was tapped earlier in his carreer would have tapped against Nate also. Fighters do improve. Weird to see a guy being judged on fights that happened years ago, but most recent fights just being ignored..

It is just that nothing has changed. He still trains with the same guys at the same camp that does not have a bjj coach. He has been fighting forever, I just don't buy the theory that he just magically got better all of the sudden.

BTW Scientists, you now say that Nate is a favorable matchup for Chael, but that is in hindsight. that way you can never be wrong, you can always just explain it away. I'm also not looking at this as a pick em, because it is not. IMO, Chael @ big dog odds is the wise play here. Any bettor can play -300 or -400 guys. But those guys eventually get themselves in trouble...

I disagree with both statements, but really and totally disagree with the second one.

Miller was a tough matchup for him, Chael won that with his hands and sprawl. Paulo Filho was a tough match for him as well. I am honest about these things. I am wrong all the time and freely admit it.

MMA gambling is not about showing how awesome you are at picking underdogs. I make almost all of my money on the favorites. It is about beating the line. If you bet -600 fighters and win 9/10, you are going to make money. There is no inherent superiority to picking dogs, and it doesn't mean you have some super MMA knowledge. Its about winning at a greater percentage than the line indicates. I promise you I can beat the line picking nothing but -400 fights over a year. I will side bet you $1000 that I can make a profit using any line you want up to -600.

Scientist, you also say that you would not be surprised to see Chael beat him. Well, then hell, the argument is over...We agree, Chael is a good bet at big dog odds.

No, we don't. I don't give a 30% chance. I would not be surpised, but I wouldn't take him unto +450 or so.

You honestly believe +450=30% chance of winning? And you use this knowledge to bet? As for your side bet of $1000.00, that is just a silly thing to say over the internet. How about 100K? Give me a break. How about I copy my boxing picks from another site, and show you where I am hitting at close to 75 % and hitting +300 dogs.

Just to let you know, I have been making a living betting boxing for over a decade. Fairly new to MMA, so am still learning. But anyone who says they CAN MAKE a living betting big favorites is nothing more than a liar. And I have met plenty of them, they all eventually go bust. And I have been betting boxing since I was 16, and am now 37. I have seen these guys come and go. I doubt MMA is that much different.

[AC88]

^^
sbjj, are you putting money on Chael? I think he's a great dog bet.

[Ludo]

And so it was that another newcomer to IWS picked a fight with a regular. Roll that beautiful bean footage.