I don't see Fitch losing. He's durable as fuck and Alves will likely spend most of the fight either on his back getting stalled or being pressed against the cage and doing no damage. honestly all this time away from the octagon while Fitch has been running through guys and staying in fight shape will probably lead Alves to gas at Fitch's pace at which point Fitch will jump on his back and rape him for the win.
Fitch by Prison Movie Shower Technique