UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

[edman5555]

I like Diaz to win also.

Miranda, Ruediger, Alves and Salter could all be good underdogs.

Miranda has superior wrestling to Maia, he might be able to force a standup fight. He is a very good grappler in his won right, so it is not going to be insta-submission for Maia. I think it comes down to striking and whether Maia can get top position. Since Maia will probably be at least -300, Miranda is probably the play (for you guys, for me ABOM).

Ruediger doesn't suck. His stint on tough made him look like an ass clown, but he is actually a very solid fighter. I still favor creepy Joe, but I wouldn't take him @ -200 or more.

Salter is basically mini Dan Miller. Miller should be a little ahead in the wrestling, but not so much that it is a lock. Miller's hands apparently suck worse than everyone thought.

Alves is dynamic. He is a muy thai and judo guy. He trains with a great camp. Most likely Pierce will top control him for 3 rounds... but Alves has a lot more outs. I doubt Pierce finishes him. I will probably make this @ +200.

Yeah Alves finishes fights which is a plus. He isn't going to D win a wrestler unless he repeatidly stuns him in the standup unless he can take him down which is unlikely.

I was thinking the same thing about Miranda. He might be able to get a decision win on Maia. I bet he will be in the +250 - +300 range.

[sbjj]

Yea, I think Miranda will be the right side of the bet(assuming the line is what we think it will be). but Miranda seems to be kinda spastic with his offense, like balls to the wall, and I fear that may get him in trouble with Maia.

[edman5555]

Yea, I think Miranda will be the right side of the bet(assuming the line is what we think it will be). but Miranda seems to be kinda spastic with his offense, like balls to the wall, and I fear that may get him in trouble with Maia.

That's not good.

[poopoo333]

I have to do some more video watching and stuff, but I will probably be on Ospizak, Diaz, Dan Miller @-220 or better, Maia @-220 or better, and Winner.

[MMA_scientist]

Yea, I think Miranda will be the right side of the bet(assuming the line is what we think it will be). but Miranda seems to be kinda spastic with his offense, like balls to the wall, and I fear that may get him in trouble with Maia.

Maia is going to be superior on the mat. If Miranda takes him down, he is not going to be able to hold him there for 15 minutes without getting subbed or swept, IMO. If Maia is on top, Miranda is probably screwed unless he can escape to his feet of stall out in guard until the bell. As good as Miranda is, he is not as good as Maia on the mat. But Miranda is also a pretty good wrestler, and I think he can dictate where the fight goes.

How is Miranda's striking?

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah Alves finishes fights which is a plus. He isn't going to D win a wrestler unless he repeatidly stuns him in the standup unless he can take him down which is unlikely.

I was thinking the same thing about Miranda. He might be able to get a decision win on Maia. I bet he will be in the +250 - +300 range.

Miranda is not going to stop Maia. You might be able to get really good odds on a prop Miranda by decision.

[sbjj]

Miranda just has a go for broke style, and I think it might get him in trouble both standing(by getting taken down) and on the ground(where he is already at a disadvantage). That all being said, I think the line will dictate where the bet is placed. I do not subscribe to the philosophy that I have to believe my guy is going to win the fight in order to place the bet. I did not believe Werdum was going to beat Fedor, I just believed he had value...so that is where the money went.

I think Maia wins this fight, but if Miranda is +300 or more, he gets my bet(more than likely)

[sbjj]

Really starting to convince myself that Kenny takes the fight(against Gray). Maybe it is just me trying to find a fight to throw down cash on.

[MMA_scientist]

Miranda just has a go for broke style, and I think it might get him in trouble both standing(by getting taken down) and on the ground(where he is already at a disadvantage). That all being said, I think the line will dictate where the bet is placed. I do not subscribe to the philosophy that I have to believe my guy is going to win the fight in order to place the bet. I did not believe Werdum was going to beat Fedor, I just believed he had value...so that is where the money went.

I think Maia wins this fight, but if Miranda is +300 or more, he gets my bet(more than likely)

Well if there is enough value I will make the bet even if I feel my guy is less than 50%. I also bet Werdum because I thought he had A LOT of value, but still felt he was less than 50%. But generally, I still to smaller favorites that I think are actually going to win.

IIRC correctly, Maia was -300 or so against Miller. I can't imagine Miranda is going to get that much respect from the public. I think -400/+300 is right about where it will land. At that line, Miranda is the play, I agree. If he has a charging striking style, he is probably going to get taken down and be in the one place he does not want to be (underneath Maia).

[MMA_scientist]

Really starting to convince myself that Kenny takes the fight(against Gray). Maybe it is just me trying to find a fight to throw down cash on.

I am actually leaning toward Maynard now. I started off thinking Florian would find a way to win it with his striking... I now think Maynard uses his wrestling again and does am Edgar/Sherk on K-Flo.

I think the line will move up on Maynard so I am waiting it out.

[sbjj]

Really starting to convince myself that Kenny takes the fight(against Gray). Maybe it is just me trying to find a fight to throw down cash on.

I am actually leaning toward Maynard now. I started off thinking Florian would find a way to win it with his striking... I now think Maynard uses his wrestling again and does am Edgar/Sherk on K-Flo.

I think the line will move up on Maynard so I am waiting it out.

The problems I have with that thinking is that first, this is not the Kenny that fought the roided up Sherk. And second, Maynard has had subpar results with his wrestling as of late. he had trouble taking Huerta down, and even if he does get Kenny down, i believe Kenny may get him in bad spots there also.

I am 100% sure that this is not the same kenny that layed under Sherk, I can actually see a fight where half of it is spent standing, and the other half is spent on the ground, and kenny outworks him in both areas. the judges could have an effect on this contest also, as I could see a fight where Maynard has top position, but Kenny does more damage from the bottom.

[MMA_scientist]

The problems I have with that thinking is that first, this is not the Kenny that fought the roided up Sherk. And second, Maynard has had subpar results with his wrestling as of late. he had trouble taking Huerta down, and even if he does get Kenny down, i believe Kenny may get him in bad spots there also.

I am 100% sure that this is not the same kenny that layed under Sherk, I can actually see a fight where half of it is spent standing, and the other half is spent on the ground, and kenny outworks him in both areas. the judges could have an effect on this contest also, as I could see a fight where Maynard has top position, but Kenny does more damage from the bottom.

I agree that Kenny has improved his takedown defense. But he still won't be able to stop Maynard from taking him down, IMO. The only issue is whether he will be able to keep him down.

Although Maynard is at a clear striking disadvantage, he has never really been hurt on his feet that I can recall (admittedly, I hate watching him fight, so I havne't paid a lot of attention). Maynard's difficulty controlling Huerta I think had a lot to do with Huerta's wrestling and pace. He was able to control Edgar pretty well. And he has had the takedown on pretty much everyone he wanted it on. I don't think Kenny will threaten from his back. Kenny has solid grappling, but he doesn't do much from his guard. He gets his submissions from dominant positions. If Kenny can take Maynard down or get his back, its all over, I agree.

Kenny throws some elbows and may beat him up from guard, but I doubt he will sweep or sub him. So in that regard, yeah, the judging is huge. But I have no faith that the judges are suddently going to realize that the guy on bottom is not necessarily losing just because he happens to be facing up instead of down. His best bet is to use his butterfly hooks to create space and get up like he did when Guida took him down.

I don't really like either guy at the current line... But I see Maynard as more of a threat than Guida to control him.

[sbjj]

But you could argue that Kennys wrestling and pace are just as good, if not better than Rogers. His pace for sure, as the pace in the Gray-Roger fight was actually pretty slow. Rogers was getting raped by Guida in the wrestling department, yet Maynard had a tough time with him.

I really do think the CO. show really screwed with alot of fighters that night...many of them looked very lethargic, and I think that might have really played into the Maynard-Edgar match.

I just think you might be surprised at how well Kenny is able to keep the distance in this fight, and use his footwork to evade SOME of the takedowns.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ well it wouldn't surprise me a lot. I think Florian is the second best LW in the world. But I think If Maynard has the right gameplan, he can cause trouble.

I will probably not bet at all... you have talked me out of Maynard. But I still won't bet Florian.

[SPX]

Well if there is enough value I will make the bet even if I feel my guy is less than 50%.

I've never seen you make this statement.

[sbjj]

^^ well it wouldn't surprise me a lot. I think Florian is the second best LW in the world. But I think If Maynard has the right gameplan, he can cause trouble.

I will probably not bet at all... you have talked me out of Maynard. But I still won't bet Florian.

LOL! You might have talked me out of Florian. i do agree that the right gameplan executed correctly could be trouble.

[SPX]

I think Kenny takes it. Maynard make get some takedowns, but I think Kenny will avoid most of them. And if he does get taken down he'll find a way back to his feet. I was genuinely impressed with the way that Guida was 100% INEFFECTIVE in taking Kenny down. He completely failed in that department.

On the feet it will be all Kenny.

[MMA_scientist]

Well if there is enough value I will make the bet even if I feel my guy is less than 50%.

I've never seen you make this statement.

I bet on Werdum and I stated in that thread that I thought Werdum was about 30-35%. But since I got him @ +455, the line was giving him less than a 20% chance. But you are right, usually, I have to think my guy is actually going to win.

[MMA_scientist]

I think Kenny takes it. Maynard make get some takedowns, but I think Kenny will avoid most of them. And if he does get taken down he'll find a way back to his feet. I was genuinely impressed with the way that Guida was 100% INEFFECTIVE in taking Kenny down. He completely failed in that department.

On the feet it will be all Kenny.

Guida did get one takedown. I forgot that Kenny was throwing Guida around though... He had a couple of big takedowns. Kenny is the new GSP.

[SPX]

Guida did get one takedown. I forgot that Kenny was throwing Guida around though... He had a couple of big takedowns. Kenny is the new GSP.

I don't remember Guida's takedown, but I'll take your word for it.

For me, this isn't a question of whether it was a bad idea to bet on Kenny, but whether it would be a bad idea to put more money on him.