UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

[Luke]

For the record, I will take Randy up to -1500.

LOL that Mercer-Sylvia fight is enough not to make me do that.I would lay -1500 ever .I think I took -600 in a fight once that was the highest odds I ever took

If the line is decent I'll be on Couture if its crazy I'll watch with my popcorn like any other freakshow

[edman5555]

I was thinking Toney might be a good U-dog bet considering how astronical the odds will probably be but then I considered one thing. Even if Toney drops Randy with a punch right after the opening bell(his only opportunity) he has to follow randy to the ground to finish him.....thats where he can easily be reversed and then dominated. So his punchers chance isn't even worhh much.

[SPX]

^^^^ Well that punch could just knock Couture the fuck out.

[zY|]

^^^^ Well that punch could just knock Couture the fuck out.

Maybe. But from what I understand (which about boxing isn't much) is that Toney isn't really that kind of boxer.

[Luke]

^^^^ Well that punch could just knock Couture the fuck out.

Maybe. But from what I understand (which about boxing isn't much) is that Toney isn't really that kind of boxer.

He isnt .He's just like Mayweather ,a highly skilled defensive fighter with not alot of power

Toney is the bigger version of Mayweather

[Luke]

I was thinking Toney might be a good U-dog bet considering how astronical the odds will probably be but then I considered one thing. Even if Toney drops Randy with a punch right after the opening bell(his only opportunity) he has to follow randy to the ground to finish him.....thats where he can easily be reversed and then dominated. So his punchers chance isn't even worhh much.

What do you consider astronical odds wise?

[zY|]

And here we go.



Maynard the favorite? Really?

[SPX]

Fucking Christ!!!!!!

I'm at work and can't bet from here.

STAY THERE, KENFLO! DON'T GO ANYWHERE!

Also . . . interesting line on Penn/Edgar. That's a tough row to hoe for Edgar. He fights BJ Penn and his reward for winning . . . is to fight BJ Penn.

[SPX]

Just grabbed Kenflo for 1.5u at -125. Great deal, in my opinion.

[Luke]

And here we go.



Maynard the favorite? Really?

Exactly what I expected Penn to be .Couture's about 100 higher than I thought

[SPX]

Exactly what I expected Penn to be .Couture's about 100 higher than I thought

The best thing Penn could do for bettors is lose this fight, because if he does, then we'll no doubt get at least a couple of really good lines out of him after that.

[edman5555]

To answer your question Luke..




+500?? It's at +350 or so now. Not really good enough for me. I don't agree that Toney lacks the power to knock Couture out with one shot. Toney is a very skilled Prof boxer with many KO's to his credit. On top of that he knows he has to land that one super power shot real fast...or else he is going to get taken down(thats only a matter of time). With the boxing skill level disparity between the two thats not outlandish. Randy's chin isnt the best either...but still Randy is the clear favorite.

[Ludo]

He's not a power boxer though, he's a Mayweather type boxer. He likes to outpoint and outpace his opponent for a while and when the time is right land punches in bunches.

[Luke]

To answer your question Luke..




+500?? It's at +350 or so now. Not really good enough for me. I don't agree that Toney lacks the power to knock Couture out with one shot. Toney is a very skilled Prof boxer with many KO's to his credit. On top of that he knows he has to land that one super power shot real fast...or else he is going to get taken down(thats only a matter of time). With the boxing skill level disparity between the two thats not outlandish. Randy's chin isnt the best either...but still Randy is the clear favorite.

Would have took more than +500 for me to take Toney.I thought Couture would be -400 but some people acted like the line was going to be -1000 or higher .At +700-+800 I would have took Toney.

But your wrong about Toney .I have watched him fight for 15 years .At 160-175 he had a ton of power but he hasnt been that weight for almost 10 years. At 205 for this fight he doesnt have much power .He's had 2 KO's in boxing in his past 12 fights at this weight .Toney is a natural 160 pound fighter just like BJ Penn.Toney is just lazy and didnt like training to get down to 160. Imagine how much power BJ Penn would have in the 205 class,exact same situation with Toney..

I hope your not basing you thoughts off Ray Mercer because Mercer was a natural HW and was one of the biggest punches of his time at HW

[Mr. IWS]

Loving that BJ line, wish I could get down on that now.

Loving Florini as well.

If Handy comes down a little more, Ill get on him too.

Will be an awesome card to bet IMO.

[SPX]

Loving that BJ line, wish I could get down on that now.

Loving Florini as well.

I'm surprised there's not more discussion going on around here about both of these.

Personally, I will probably stay away from the Penn/Edgar fight unless something happens with the line or unless I put Penn in a parlay. I just think that Edgar has a style which confuses opponents with the way he's constantly in motion and never stands still long enough to get hit cleanly. He could come out and do the exact same thing in this fight as he did in the last one, so either Penn comes down, or Edgar's line goes up, or I'm not betting.

I have already dropped 1.5u on Florian and I'm surprised that line hasn't moved more than it has. I was at work yesterday when Florian opened at even and I just KNEW that by the time I got home he'd be like -190. Luckily, he wasn't. Maynard hasn't looked awesome in his last few fights and Florian's takedown defense has looked much improved as of late. I expect Florian to take his soul, Shang Tsung style.

[Mr. IWS]

I just think that Edgar has a style which confuses opponents with the way he's constantly in motion and never stands still long enough to get hit cleanly.

I think this time, BJ just gets a hold of him and taps him. Your right, that Hummingbird style is tuff.

[Ludo]

Without a doubt BJ will come out looking for a takedown early. That drift in and drift out style was something BJ made famous, Edgar just takes it to a whole other level with the way he wades WAY out and then comes back in. His agility is definitely the enemy for anyone he fights, unless they can grab him and get him to the ground. If BJ ends up on top there's no way Edgar wins.

[SPX]

I'd say I agree with you, but with Edgar's wrestling, I wouldn't be surprised if the grappling elements actually cancel each other out.

I know GSP was bigger, plus he's GSP, but we've seen that Penn CAN be outwrestled.

[zY|]

I'd say I agree with you, but with Edgar's wrestling, I wouldn't be surprised if the grappling elements actually cancel each other out.

I know GSP was bigger, plus he's GSP, but we've seen that Penn CAN be outwrestled.

I think your point is good in that BJ may have problems securing the takedown. But once he's on top, unless Frankie is able to scramble up immediately, he's going to have big problems. BJ Penn has the best guard passing and mount/back control in all of MMA. If Penn ever got on top of even GSP it wouldn't be good.

I think it's a really compelling matchup (much like the Shogun/Machida rematch Saturday), in that one guy utilized an effective strategy, so now we have to see whether the other guy can make adjustments.