UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

[Luke]

[zY|]

Amadeus Penn takes this with ease.

[poopoo333]

Palhares @+220 is appealing, but he will probably lose.

[SPX]

Palhares @+220 is appealing, but he will probably lose.

That's how I feel.

Went ahead and dropped .75u on Marcus Davis at +160, though. That line seems a little fucked up to me.

[zY|]

Palhares @+220 is appealing, but he will probably lose.

That's how I feel.

Went ahead and dropped .75u on Marcus Davis at +160, though. That line seems a little fucked up to me.

I hate that these lines come out so early.

[SPX]

I hate that these lines come out so early.

Why is that?

[zY|]

I hate that these lines come out so early.

Why is that?

Because I hate tying money up that long, but if you don't you get shit lines.

[ManBoobKilla]

Bet 3U on Palhares
Bet 3U on Diaz

[Thewiseman]

Marquardt 4.5u to win 2u

[MMA_scientist]

I will be on the Palhares gravy train again. I think I would have bet nothing but Palhares, Dos Anjos, and Hendricks I would have cleared about 15 units last year...

That +220 is a bargain. He is 50% IMO, maybe a favorite in my book.

[SPX]

I will be on the Palhares gravy train again.

That +220 is a bargain. He is 50% IMO, maybe a favorite in my book.

I agree that something seems wrong with that line. I'll probably drop .5u on Palhares.

As a matter of fact I think I'll go ahead and do that right now. . .

[MMA_scientist]

I will be on the Palhares gravy train again.

That +220 is a bargain. He is 50% IMO, maybe a favorite in my book.

I agree that something seems wrong with that line. I'll probably drop .5u on Palhares.

As a matter of fact I think I'll go ahead and do that right now. . .

Well, it already got busted up... I dropped 1u @ +185 though...

Which reminds me, do you guys think Dos Anjos will go into + territory?

[SPX]

Well, it already got busted up... I dropped 1u @ +185 though...

I just got him for .5u @ +185.

Which reminds me, do you guys think Dos Anjos will go into + territory?

Not sure. Maybe mildly, but that line looks like it's not going to move much. I'm hesitant to go in either direction for that fight.

[Luke]

I figured all you guys would be on Nate

[Ludo]

I don't think Palhares is 50% or even close here. His only weapon is catching Nate in a nasty hold, which he is very unlikely to do if Nate is on top(Marquardt has a storied history as a competant grappler). Thats assuming Nate even takes this to the ground, standing I think Nate has a clear advantage and his sprawl should be good enough to keep the fight wherever he wants it to go. Even if it goes to the ground I just don't see Palhares ending up on top of Nate, in which case Marquardt will likely pound on him a bit enroute to a decision.

I'll likely be on Nate if the line improves a little.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ I think Palhares will be able to get a takedown. He took Henderson down. But Palhares can grapple on his back as well. I agree that he will have a hard time catching Nate in a sub, but Palhares is a few levels above Nate as a grappler. Palhares was the Brazilian trials ADCC champion... which is pretty much the equivalent of being a world champion, since all but about 5 champions have been the brazilian trials winners (he did not compete in the finals d/t visa issues). BUt even more impressively, he submitted Romulo Barral. If you don't know who that is- he is a bad ass in bjj, a 2x Mundials Champion. I would put Palhares on about the same level as Maia... not the very top, but the next eschelon down. He has an advantage over Nate on the ground, IMO. Nate will need to win it on his feet.

Also, his striking is not bad. He has some good leg kicks. I think it comes down to whether Palhares can drag it down consitently... which I think there is about a 50% that he can.

[zY|]

Paul Harris is a goddamn silverback. Don't be surprised if he picks Marquardt up over his head and throws him right out of the cage.

[Ludo]

Henderson has always had poor takedown defense due mostly to the fact that he gets over aggressive and leaves himself off balance from winging his right hand out there like it's his only tool to finish or something. Taking Marquardt down is a whole other game entirely. He doesn't leave himself out there as much, he is much quicker on his feet. I'm not doubting Palhares' grappling credentials, I would like him against almost anyone else in the division. But Marquardt is no slouch, and I like to think he's at least good enough to stay out of too much trouble, if nothing else Nate is a smart fighter. He knows where his opponent's bread and butter is and he usually does a good job of keeping the fight where it's better for himself.

The only two fighters who have been able to take him out of his game lately have been Anderson Silva(no surprise), and Chael Sonnen(who hasn't been taken down by this cat though?).

[Svino]

Palhares has been good to me before. I have 1U on him right now; might put more if the line improves, which it probably won't.

I admit that I am concerned that Marquardt's closest equivalent opponent is Maia, and we know how that went. I do think Palhares would be significantly outclassed on the feet.

However, I have never thought Marquardt had great takedown defense. I know it sounds harsh to blame him for being put on his back by a guy as good as Sonnen, but he really looked bad in that fight. Even after it was clear he knew exactly what was coming, he just kept stepping right into the takedowns. I think he handled it about as badly as he possibly could have. In comparison, Hendo's takedown defense is bad *for an accomplished wrestler*, but it's still decent. (I agree though, the weaknesses come after he gets agressive with strikes.)

[MMA_scientist]

palhares is not afraid to pull guard. He pulled guard on Hendo twice. He was on bottom when he whipped out his heel hook on Linahres.

He also took Hendo down more than once... including a pretty nice double leg slam.

Read the PBP on the Hendo fight: http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC...-by-Play-14295

I really think he will get the takedown at least a few times, assuming he donesn't get Kd in the first 20 seconds. FTR, I would take Maia in the rematch.