Bellator 18 4/13

[MMA_scientist]

Hector Lombard vs. Paulo Filho

Lombard is an olympic judoka and bellator MW champion. He has only lost to Mousasi and Gono. He is a brute. But Filho has only lost once, to Sonnen when he was apparently seeing ghosts in the cage. He also defeated Sonnen. He defeated Manhoef since then. Not long ago, he was the consensus #2 MW. He went from being the undefeated guy everyone wanted to see fight Silva, to not in the top 10 at all, based on one loss to the now #2 MW. Filho has a lot of issue, but he is still a BA.
I have to give an edge to Filho here. But I think Lombard probably has a striking advantage, and with his judo pedigree can keep it upright. If Lombard engages Filho on the ground, he could be in trouble. I need to look at Lombard's standup and takedown defense a little bit. Either guy could have value as a dog.

Joe Warren vs. Georgi Karakhanyan

Warren should win this, but Georgi will have value @ +170 IMO.
Georgi is a wildly aggressive striker and has a good submission game from his back. Warren was nearly submitted 3 times in his last outing. I could definately see a triangle here. If it stays upright for more than a few minutes, Warren is toast.


Patricio “Pitbull” Freire vs. Wilson Reis
Reis will probably open as the rightful favorite. He made it to the Bellator finals last season, and looked great last round. BUT, Pitbull is live. Reis is a bjj world champion with very good takedowns. But Pitbull is a bjj stud himself, though he does not have the top control game that Reis has. He has a enough to not get submitted though, or even positionally dominated. But Pitbull has way better standup IMO. I probably won't bet Reis unless he comes in close to even. I will probably be on Pitbull as a dog. Reis could open in the -250 range.


If we get lines on these, I will look at them then:

Jules Bruchez vs. Lamont Stafford
Shawn Jordan vs. Doug Williams
Christian Fulgium vs. Charlie Rader
Mike Braswell vs. Brock Kerry

[SPX]

How do you think Sonnen would do against Filho today?

[ManBoobKilla]

Isnt lombard going to face the winner of this years bellator tournament? If so why is he fighting a very dangerous opponent? What happens if he loses? I dont think he will lose but Filho does have a good shot

[MMA_scientist]

^^ it's at a catchweight.

Same as the Alvarez/Neer fight. Alvarez is the LW champ. They fought @ 160.

[zY|]

How do you think Sonnen (R-Or) would do against Filho today?

He'd probably get armbarred again, if Filho has his mind right.

Does he though? Didn't he just pull out of this fight last week and then apparently it was back on?

If he's not 100% and is talking to Jesus, Hector is going to hurt this man bad.

[ManBoobKilla]

^^ it's at a catchweight.

Same as the Alvarez/Neer fight. Alvarez is the LW champ. They fought @ 160.

Lol ok I see. And then what if he gets hurt in this fight? Not saying it is practical or will happen or anything. Are they just assuming and hoping he wont I guess.

[MMA_scientist]

How do you think Sonnen (R-Or) would do against Filho today?

I think it would look about the same as the 2 fights they had. Sonnen has better standup and Filho can't take him down. If Sonnen willingly went down, I think he would get subbed again.

I don't buy the Sonnen-is-a-bad-ass-now theory. He looks about the same as he always has to me. I think he is benefitting from a string of favorable matchups. He has soft hands, and poor sub defense. I think Maia, Shields, Hendo, Jacare, Silva, Frankin and a few others would all beat him. Sonnen is basically a pillow handed Henderson.

That said, I do like him.

[ManBoobKilla]

I will probably be betting on lombard based on Filho is crazy and has way too many issues

[MMA_scientist]

^^ it's at a catchweight.

Same as the Alvarez/Neer fight. Alvarez is the LW champ. They fought @ 160.

Lol ok I see. And then what if he gets hurt in this fight? Not saying it is practical or will happen or anything. Are they just assuming and hoping he wont I guess.

that's always a risk with any fight. But it is even more present with the tourny style that Bellator runs.

I think Bellator's business plan is to get a handful of the best fighters they can get and make them fight a lot. Its awesome. They only have like 20 guys under contract. They only keep them for a couple of months, and then they start all over.

[MMA_scientist]

How do you think Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) would do against Filho today?

I think it would look about the same as the 2 fights they had. Sonnen (R-Or) has better standup and Filho can't take him down. If Sonnen (R-Or) willingly went down, I think he would get subbed again.

I don't buy the Sonnen-is-a-bad-ass-now theory. He looks about the same as he always has to me. I think he is benefitting from a string of favorable matchups. He has soft hands, and poor sub defense. I think Maia, Shields, Hendo, Jacare, Silva, Frankin and a few others would all beat him. Sonnen (R-Or) is basically a pillow handed Henderson.

That said, I do like him.

lol at the automatic (R-OR). I was like, hey, I didn't type that.

[MMA_scientist]

Sonnen

[MMA_scientist]

^^^ HA

Sonnen

[ManBoobKilla]

Sonnen (R-Or)

Whats with the (R-Or)???

[MMA_scientist]

Sonnen (R-Or)

Whats with the (R-Or)???

Sonnen is running for some public office (State Rep I think). He is a republican (R) in Oregon (Or)

I guess Zac programmed it in that whenever you type Son nen , it goes (R-Or) automatically. I didn't know it, so it was funny to me.

[ManBoobKilla]

[quote=MMA_scientist]

Sonnen (R-Or)

Whats with the (R-Or)???

Sonnen (R-Or) is running for some public office (State Rep I think). He is a republican (R) in Oregon (Or)

I guess Zac programmed it in that whenever you type Son nen , it goes (R-Or) automatically. I didn't know it, so it was funny to me.[/quote:2mv3h2fk]

I see lol ok

[SPX]

I don't buy the Sonnen-is-a-bad-ass-now theory.

I actually do. To me, he does NOT look like the guy that was in WEC. For one, he just looks physically bigger. For another, he's just fucking people up. Dan Miller and Okami are one thing, but the Marquardt win was impressive. So either Sonnen has improved or Nate wasn't as good as we all thought.

[MMA_scientist]

I don't buy the Sonnen-is-a-bad-ass-now theory.

I actually do. To me, he does NOT look like the guy that was in WEC. For one, he just looks physically bigger. For another, he's just fucking people up. Dan Miller and Okami are one thing, but the Marquardt win was impressive. So either Sonnen (R-Or) has improved or Nate wasn't as good as we all thought.

Nate has never shown good skills off his back. It is just a facor that we all overlooked. I think Nate would beat more guys than Sonnen... but is going to have problems with wrestlers.

I am actually more impressed by his win over Miller.

[zY|]

He's not the same guy who was tapped by Jeremy Horn 3 times.

He fought out of some serious submission attempts from Miller and Nate.

[Luke]

I don't buy the Sonnen-is-a-bad-ass-now theory. He looks about the same as he always has to me. I think he is benefitting from a string of favorable matchups.

I agree .After Silva destroys him all that talk will go away again and everyone will start the "he was overrated" talk

[SPX]

I agree .After Silva destroys him all that talk will go away again and everyone will start the "he was overrated" talk

Maybe from the Sherdog crowd, but knowledgeable people will know that even if he gets beat by Silva he's still a game--and improved--fighter.