good article from Asa at Vegas Insider.com
Couple write-ups from Vegas Insider speaking on SP's and some that have a noticable difference in home starts, vs. road starts. The first link and copy and paste is from April, and speaks of last years, second, is this year.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/story.cfm/story/987811
MLB STARTING PITCHER VALUE
There are a number of key statistics that we look at each day when handicapping MLB. Some are team stats and some are individual. Some are offensive and some are defensive. However, many of the key stats that have helped me have success handicapping MLB professionally for the last 20 years involve pitching, both starters and bullpen. As the season progresses, one thing I like to study is what I call the starting pitcher's home-road dichotomy.
Many starting hurlers have solid home numbers, but really struggle on the road. When this happens, we can pick up some nice value playing either on or against them in certain home-road situations. Now to be upfront, many pitchers tend to be better at home, however some of them provide a drastic difference. That's where we can pick up some value. As a guideline, here are a few starters that fell into the more dramatic home vs. away mode in 2009 that we will keep a close eye on this season.
2009 STARTING PITCHERS WITH LARGE HOME - ROAD DIFFERENTIALS
Home ERA Road ERA Differential
Mike Pelphrey - Mets 3.72 6.72 -3.00
Home B.A. against Road B.A. against Differential
.271 .310 -0.039
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Home ERA Road ERA Differential
John Lannan - Nationals 2.62 5.42 -2.80
Home B.A. against Road B.A. against Differential
.254 .281 -0.027
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Home ERA Road ERA Differential
Ross Ohlendorf - Pirates 2.64 5.56 -2.92
Home B.A. against Road B.A. against Differential
.230 .286 -0.056
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Home ERA Road ERA Differential
Gavin Floyd - White Sox 2.47 5/47 -3.00
Home B.A. against Road B.A. against Differential
.205 .277 -0.072
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Home ERA Road ERA Differential
Aaron Harang - Reds 3.43 5.18 -1.75
Home B.A. against Road B.A. against Differential
.254 .324 -0.070
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Home ERA Road ERA Differential
Wandy Rodriguez - Astros 2.08 4.05 -1.97
Home B.A against Road B.A. against Differential
.227 .274 -0.047
Again, these are just a few starting pitchers to keep an eye on this year when on the mound at home vs. on the road. By using this handicapping method, obviously sifting through many other stats and variables involved with each game, you should be able to target some under valued home spots along with some over valued road situations.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/story.cfm/story/1003549
2010 STARTING PITCHERS WITH LARGE HOME - ROAD DIFFERENTIALS
Josh Johnson – Marlins
Home ERA = 1.80 Road ERA = 3.52 Differential = -1.72
Home OBP = .234 Road OBP = .330 Differential = -0.096
Home Record = 6-0 Road Record = 1-3
C.C. Sabathia – Yankees
Home ERA = 1.29 Road ERA = 5.28 Differential = -3.99
Home OBP = .241 Road OBP = .333 Differential = -0.092
Home Record = 2-1 Road Record = 3-4
Ben Sheets – Athletics
Home ERA = 2.50 Road ERA = 9.78 Differential = -7.28
Home OBP = .315 Road OBP = .427 Differential = -0.112
Home Record = 4-2 Road Record = 0-4
Mark Buehrle – White Sox
Home ERA = 3.28 Road ERA = 5.88 Differential = -2.60
Home OBP = .292 Road OBP = .342 Differential = -0.050
Home Record = 3-2 Road Record = 1-4
Scott Feldman – Rangers
Home ERA = 4.54 Road ERA = 8.64 Differential = -4.10
Home OBP = .344 Road OBP = .386 Differential = -0.042
Home Record = 4-2 Road Record = 0-3
Kevin Millwood – Orioles
Home ERA = 3.28 Road ERA = 4.18 Differential = -0.90
Home OBP = .286 Road OBP = .347 Differential = -0.061
Home Record = 4-1 Road Record = 0-5
Again, these are just a few starting pitchers I will continue to keep an eye on this year when on the mound at home vs. on the road. This is by no means my entire list as that is quite extensive. However, by using this handicapping method, obviously sifting through many other stats and variables involved with each game, it should help you target some potential under valued home spots along with some over valued road situations.
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