Yes, SPX. That's exactly what I said.Originally Posted by SPX
So a fighter who loses two fights is incapable of ever winning again?
And I just bet on a bunch of guys who are probably going to lose.
Yes, SPX. That's exactly what I said.So a fighter who loses two fights is incapable of ever winning again?
And I just bet on a bunch of guys who are probably going to lose.
Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shit
off the top of my head. Simpson is much bigger and stronger than Leben. I know he is a much better wrestler as well. Should be an easy takedown.
1 unit = 300 $
Leben has 4 submission wins in his career. 3 of them were within his first year or so of training, like 7 years ago. Since then he submitted edwin dewees....he isnt going to be as good on the ground as aaron simpson. He is just some tough as dude that got into mma that likes to slug it out. he has to knock out aaron simpson to win which will be hard. Lawlor may not hit as hard as leben but he def hit simpson hard as fuck and simpson weathered the storm. I'm all simpson on this but, yes the line does suck.
1 unit = 300 $
Yes but Lawlor gassed out after the first and barely survived the next two rounds. Leben has a much better gas tank, and much harder strikes, not to mention his sprawl is very good. I can see Leben sprawl n brawling Simpson to a decision win or a TKO. That said I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Simpson get a takedown and pounding Leben to a TKO win himself.
2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311u
^^^ Ludo, that girl seriously looks like she is getting raped.
I heart cock
[quote=zY|]Yes, SPX. That's exactly what I said.So a fighter who loses two fights is incapable of ever winning again?
And I just bet on a bunch of guys who are probably going to lose.[/quote:33g28d1t]
Who?!?!
Everyone who's name I didn't know that was an underdog.
Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shit
And I just looked.
I'm on
Attonito
Bacsynski
Bryant
McSweeney
Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shit
Mcsweeney is going to win.
I can't believe I fucked up who's/whose. Shameful.
Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shit
can't find anything to bet... there are a few dogs. I think Bryant has a good chance... Attonito should win, but he is not the dog. Mcsweeney will either get killed or leg kick his way to a decision (personally, I hope he gets beat up). But I don't see anything that is way out of line.
I decided against Gunderson. His takedowns are not good enough to force it down IMO.
I will probably just go Jardine for enough to win 1, just so I have something. Or I could just bet every fight on the card too... I know there is money to be made on this card, but nothing fits my criteria.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Final Plays:
1u Jardine @+125
0.25u Leben @+275
0.5u Siver @+160
0.5u Mcsweeney @+165
0.5u Holst @+195
Mcsweeney is fighting Travis Browne.
I think I was drunk when I wrote that.
1 unit = 300 $
Kyle Noke.
1 unit = 300 $
MArk Holst seems like a good bet to me, is gundersons wrestling really that good? Did he ever compete in wrestling?
1 unit = 300 $
I was originally going to bet on Gunderson, but I changed my mind after watching vids. His wrestling isn't great and I don't know how much of an advantage he will have on the ground anyway. Striking goes to Holst, IMO. I might be flip flopping and get on Holst for a small play
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
I can't find anything on this card or the WEC card I like. I might just bet all the dogs and see what happens.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Got a few small bets but nothing I really like that much.
1u on attonito
1u on Jardine
I'm a bit worried about Jardine's disappearing chin but I don't think Hamill is as good an athlete as Bader who Jardine was about to win a decision over. Hopefully this time he will pull it out.
Might put something on mscweeney but his 4-4 record scares me.
I just decided to run some numbers on the Ultimate Fighter Finales. For this, I was using the Bookmaker odds on bestfightodds.com, which only has records back to the 5th Ultimate Fighter, so that's how far back I went.
In the last six TUF Finales you would have the following unit gains/losses if you bet every dog on the card (not just the guys on the show). The first number after each event is the result if you bet 1 U on each, the second is if you bet to win 1 U on each.
TUF 5 -5.85 -0.88
TUF 6 -2.70 +0.13
TUF 7 -0.05 +0.10
TUF 8 +4.85 +4.68
TUF 9 +2.15 +0.66
TUF 10 +7.47 +8.32
TUF 5-10 total +5.87 +8.91
This shows an advantage for the dogs, even if not entirely consistent. However, it is worth pointing out the numbers if, for comparison, we just look at betting on underdogs for the last 6 UFC events:
UFC 111 -7.63 -3.53
UFC FvG -1.71 -0.39
UFC 112 +5.20 +4.08
UFC 113 +9.15 +4.03
UFC 114 +5.20 +4.08
UFC 115 +3.40 +2.85
Last 6 UFC total: +14.21 +8.31
So while the dogs in recent TUF finales have been having a good run, it is almost equally, if not more true of UFC events in general.
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