I really like Little Nog @+140.
I really like Little Nog @+140.
I really like Dunham to win in this fight, even though I feel the value is with Sherk @ close to +200.
Anybody have input on Nog/Bader and Grant/Paulino?
Meathead only has two "pro" fights. One against Marcus jones the football player and the other against Kimbo. Joey Beltran is a big more experienced then that. I think he might be worth a bet. Depending on how much Mitrione has learned.
1 unit = 300 $
Beltran always wins.Originally Posted by edman5555
He's the next heavyweight champ.
I heart cock
I have 0.25u on Beltran. Both of these guys will have their hands on their knees in the 3rd round.
I am pretty big on Lil Nog here. I know he just lost to a wrestler (well I guess technically didnt lose) but Bader doesnt have the Bjj that Brilz has and wont be able to survive on the ground if he were to take Lil Nog down. I also feel that Nog underestimated Brilz and will come back even stronger this time. I give the boxing advantage to nog also. Nog at +140 is a really good bet I think.
O ya and WAR DUNHAM!!
I was considering Nog until about an hour before you posted this. I think Bader wins this.
You could be on to something here, but I always lose money betting against wrestlers so I'll probably stay away.
Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shit
Nogueira wins inside distance +423
If I were to bet Nog, I would bet on this prop. I doubt he can do what he did to Brilz to Bader. Bader is way bigger and way stronger.
That being said, Bader is going to win.
I have 1u on Nog too, I don't have a lot of confidence in it though... I think it will look a lot like the Brilz fight, which Nog won IMO. I don't think Nog subs him though... Lil Nog is really not a submission guy, he is more with the sweeps... he used deep half pretty well against Brilz. I just thought he would have more for Brilz in the striking. Lil Nog tends to look awesome sometimes and not great other times, but he usually gets it done. I think he will win it, but I can definitely see how Bader could steal some rounds by getting a few takedowns.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Nog just doesn't seem to have the best TDD. Shogun took him down at every attempt in there fight (I know his takedowns were trips or slams from the clinch, but still)...I think Bader is going to be able to take Nog down easily and control the fight.
I agree that Bader is going to have the takedowns when he wants them... I just disagree that he will be able to control him.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Yeah I'm back and forth on this one. Bader can get takedowns but control is definitely an issue. Also Bader hits hard but he was getting outstruck by Keith Jardine (until he threw a left hook and Jardine's chin was of course pulled directly in line with it by the combined forces of gravity and the Coriolis effect).
Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shit
I wish I didn't make the bet, because I think it is a close fight that could definitely go either way. So far though, I give Nog a striking edge and a grappling edge... but he might be behind on the scorecards because he will most likely be on bottom quite a bit.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
This is basically my reasoning for picking Bader. I still haven't made the bet yet.
Sherk is +200 right now and I feel that has some value, but I just don't see him even winning. I will probably end up betting on the overpriced Dunham.
Sherk can win a top control decision... It will probably be close in the striking, Sherk could win it there too. I think Sherk is undervalued. But the problem is that Sherk will have been out of the cage for like a decade.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
I guess I am just underrating Sherk's striking. But now that I think about it, Griffin was tagging Dunham with his T rex arms, and Sherk outboxed Griffin. MMA Math FTW
^ that was pretty much my thinking. Dunham has shown good power and decent hands, but he was getting just as much as he was giving from Griffin. Sherk is a badass. He has only lost to total world ruling studs. Edgar was his "bad loss" that took him down a notch. Turns out, Edgar can box a little. Sherk looked just as good against Edgar as BJ did. No shame in ANY of Sherk's losses. He has passed the guard and dominated better bjj players than Dunham. He has great takedowns in MMA, plenty enough to get Dunham down. He is immune to submissions and he has a rock for a chin. The only issue is his layoff.
I am probably still going to make a play on Sherk though because I think the line is way wrong.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
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