UFC 119 Sept 25th

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, not trying to scare you. I hope Dunham wins. But if not for Sherk's injuries and the fact that he had been out for a while, I would favor him.

Dunham's all around bjj is better for sure. But he is not going to submit Sherk. Sherk has some very solid guard passing skills (see Hermes Franca). I would put Sherk's wrestling ahead of Dunham's though, we disagree there.

He has only lost to champions (Edgar, Penn, Hughes and GSP). There is no shame in any of those losses. I think you are underestimating Sherk. I like Dunham too, but I think a healthy Sherk would beat him.

That said, I hope Dunham wins and I am not trying to scare you out of your bet. Liek Ludo said, this is a forum where we talk about our bets and why we should or should not make them.

I think Dunham is overvalued even for a regular sized bet. But Sherk will have been out a 16 months with injuries... this is too competitive a fight to come back to, and I think Dunham will get it done. But I would put him at like -130.

[sbjj]

You do have to agree with ManBoob that even before the long layoff Sherk seemed to be losing steam. You could see it in his matchup with Griffin. Age(and fights) catch up to fighters. Sherk has many fights, and has pushed his body to the limit for a long time, and I think the effects of that were being seen in his fights previous to this long layoff. I am not saying Sherk is done, just saying that IMO he is not the same fighter he was a few years ago.

Definite edge to Dunham with all factors considered, but at the current price I think that edge is basically priced in.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ I can agree with that, but he still mananged to beat Griffin and give a very competitive fight to Edgar. I think a lot of Sherk's problems stem from his sudden desire to stand and box. I think a lot of what we are seeing with Sherk is injury related though... which is why I say I would favor a healthy Sherk. The Sherk that fought Tyson will probably get beat. I do favor Dunham, but like you, I think the line is set about right all things considered, although I would still give Sherk a little more chance than teh line indicates. It is a no bet for me... and a 30u bet seems crazy (assuming 30u actually means something to Manboob in relation to his bankroll... I have seen a lot of guys just say "my unit is X dollars"--- that means nothing unless you have a defined bankroll). So when I see 30u, I usually assume at max a 100u bankroll... so to bet 30% of a total stake on this fight (or any fight) seems sort of insane.

[SPX]

I think a lot of Sherk's problems stem from his sudden desire to stand and box.

I agree, though some say that Sherk COULDN'T take his most recent opponents down and that's why he didn't try, or he only tried a handful of times. When you consider it's BJ, Griffin, and Edgar we're talking about, that might be true. And if it is, will he be able to take Dunham down? It's definitely questionable.

I usually assume at max a 100u bankroll... so to bet 30% of a total stake on this fight (or any fight) seems sort of insane.

I agree.

[MMA_scientist]

[quote=SPX]

I think a lot of Sherk's problems stem from his sudden desire to stand and box.

I agree, though some say that Sherk COULDN'T take his most recent opponents down and that's why he didn't try, or he only tried a handful of times. When you consider it's BJ, Griffin, and Edgar we're talking about, that might be true. And if it is, will he be able to take Dunham down? It's definitely questionable.

I usually assume at max a 100u bankroll... so to bet 30% of a total stake on this fight (or any fight) seems sort of insane.

I agree.[/quote:2s6ed1aj]

Against Edgar, Frankie was the one trying to get takedowns but Sherk stuffed him easily. Sherk did get Edgar down in his two takedown attempts, though Edgar got right back up on the first one and gave him teh second one for a guillotine attempt.

Against Griffin, he only attempted one takedown, and he got it.

I do not think Dunham can take Sherk down and I do think Sherk can take Dunham down. But I doubt Sherk will be able to hold him there and I question Sherk's gameplanning lately.

[SPX]

I do not think Dunham can take Sherk down and I do think Sherk can take Dunham down.

Well I hope you're right, and I hope he can hold him there, both for the sake of my half-unit and for Sherk's sake, too. He needs a win after losing to Edgar and he needs to make a statement that he can still hang.

[Luke]

If I was unloading my bank account on Dunham I would have bet it at -130 not -200

[ManBoobKilla]

If I was unloading my bank account on Dunham I would have bet it at -130 not -200

Believe me I wish I could have but I was on vacation and -200 was the first I saw it.

[Luke]

Believe me I wish I could have but I was on vacation and -200 was the first I saw it.

Got ya

[Svino]

The line continues to shift: Sherk is up to +180 on BookMaker. I will probably wait to see if it goes any higher and bet on Sherk if it starts to turn.

[MMA_scientist]

I am close to betting on Sherk. That is ridiculous. I like Dunham too, but we are talking about one of the best lightweights in the world here. Sherk is a stud.

[SPX]

I am close to betting on Sherk. That is ridiculous. I like Dunham too, but we are talking about one of the best lightweights in the world here. Sherk is a stud.

I went ahead and did a little something on Sherk. I do favor Dunham, but I put .5u on Sherk at +190. If I lose it then no big deal.

[edman5555]

Anyone else think Frank Mir over Noguiera is the lock of the year?

[Mr. IWS]

Anyone else think Frank Mir over Noguiera is the lock of the year?

I wouldnt say lock, but I think the fight will go about the same way as last time, with the same result.

[edman5555]

Anyone else think Frank Mir over Noguiera is the lock of the year?

I wouldnt say lock, but I think the fight will go about the same way as last time, with the same result.

Yeah nothing can be an "absolute lock" but this is pretty close and it has a good line thanks to Shane Carwin KO'ing Frank. I dont see how Nog can be any better, in fact I would think he would be slightly worse. He's just older and more beat up after Cain KO'd him. Frank is now bigger and stronger. He dropped Kongo with a punch before Subbing him. I think his standup is getting better and better, and is superior to Nog's.

I doubt Nog can take him down..and on the ground Nog is probably better at submissions but Mir will also have a strength advantage.

It comes down to Nog not being able to wrestle Mir down to the ground. Nog only has 2 ko's in 40 fights. He subs people and relies on his chin. That won't work out against Frank.

[edman5555]

I'm also thinking about Joey Beltran. Mitrione only has 2 fights?? I have to look that up again.

[Mr. IWS]

I think Mir will come in smaller in this fight than his previous 2.

[edman5555]

But probably bigger than old mir and smaller than new mir.

[sideloaded]

Seriously who at this point bets on Noriega?

[Luke]

NOG has been shot for years imo