UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah but Tyson wasn't fighting Matt Serra size midgets, so there you go

You see southbay, we already have enough assholes around here. We don't need anymore.

Just wanted to point out that Ludo made the comment, not sbjj

[SPX]

Just wanted to point out that Ludo made the comment, not sbjj

Oh, that was my point.

Ludo, zY. . . IWS is at full douche capacity.

(Not that I don't love those guys or anything.)

[Ludo]

Don't lump Me in with zY, that motherfucker can't even tie his own shoes

[Mr. IWS]

Good conversation..............

[sbjj]

Jesus dude, you just do not get it. Yea, and if you hit every single one, you will be up a whopping 3 or 4 units. Man, you just do not seem to see it.

No, I get it perfectly.

Let me ask you this: I'm 5'6", 140 lbs., with minimal martial arts training. If I personally fought Mike Tyson in his prime and you were offered a line of -1000, would you bet it, or would you worry that I'd throw a haymaker that would KO him?

I assume you would bet it.

So there you go.

I am hoping this post was meant to be just funny. I really hope you do not think you made a valid point here.

[sbjj]

Jesus dude, you just do not get it. Yea, and if you hit every single one, you will be up a whopping 3 or 4 units. Man, you just do not seem to see it.

must have missed where I called you a liar. or maybe you just read to much into something.

As long as you hit more than you are supposed to, you win. I don't know what else to tell you about that. I will never believe that betting where there is value is wrong. You would be better off telling me that big favorites never have value because of the inherent variables in MMA (which I sort of buy to a certain extent).

yeah, if you make huge bets, you are making a mistake in managing your funds...


as for your feud, cmon guys. We are all on the same side here. I don't want to see southbay-I mean sbjj- get banned because X is pissed. This kind of discourse is going to make us all better and at least consider if the bets we are making are good or not... (even if sbjj is wrong on this particular issue)

I actually think we all kind of agree here. Making bets too big for your bankroll is bad and will lead to your demise. We just disagree in that getting a lot of little wins and a big loss has that much effect as opposed winning 1.5 and then losing 1... it all washes out after a while.

This shit is hilarious. Feel free(whoever has the power) to ban me at any time. because if all conversations are going to degrade down to this, it would be welcomed. It is just funny for you to say I am wrong on this issue when it has worked for a decade for me Scientist. Maybe I have my rules because this is my living. Seriously, it puts food on my families table, and puts clothes on my childs back. I do not have the luxury of having long extended bad runs.

And seriously, if a dude like SPX has the power to ban me from this site...Please, ban me.

[SPX]

I am hoping this post was meant to be just funny. I really hope you do not think you made a valid point here.

While that example was extreme in order to make a point, I think that there are fights out there that go down that really are examples virtually of "free money."

Take BJ vs Stevenson, for example. When I think about that fight, I literally can't come up with a way for Stevenson to win, barring some really super crazy fluke. I mean, it's not like Stevenson KOs people, and he's for damn sure not beating BJ in any other department. I literally believe that if BJ fought Stevenson 20 times he would beat him 20 times. Maybe in 50 fights, he might win 2. Maybe.

So why not take the free money? That's my point. If that doesn't agree with your playing style because it's "just not worth it," then fine. No one's saying you have to play like anyone else. Maybe what you do works for you. Maybe your method is effective. But that doesn't mean that it's the only way to play, or that other approaches aren't equally valid.

[sbjj]

Not even close to 1/5 of my bankroll.

How many units is your bankroll? Sorry if you've told us before, but I just don't have any context for a bet given in "units" without knowing that.

I think where we are disagreeing is on the question of what types of value it is possible to predict. Personally, I think it is easier to predict that GSP has at least a 90% chance of beating Hardy than it is to say that Cain has more than a 60% chance of beating Lesnar.

However, I agree that the slight dog -> to favorite bets can be some of the most profitable, and often justify pretty big bets. I'll do that as well if I'm feeling particularly sure of myself. I had 10 U on Shogun to beat Machida, and I definitely wish I had bet earlier and harder on Carwin to beat Mir.

I have an account with money in it designated for MMA and Boxing, and the occasional poker tourney. It fluctuates(more lately) because I am constantly withdrawing money from it. But on average with my dollars per unit I normally have between a 350 to 450 unit bankroll.

Svino, your Hardy-GSP vs. Brock-Cain comparison just does not apply to me. I pretty much have to make a certain amount of money each year. So placing 2500.00 dollars on GSP to win 500.00 just does not make sense. If I just made those types of bets all year, and had a bad run, more and more of my bankroll would have to go towards bills and such.

I am by no means faulting anyone who makes a GSP type bet every now and then. My problem is with people who make this the largest part of their game. Just picking Heavy Faves. because they are bound to win.

[SPX]

And seriously, if a dude like SPX has the power to ban me from this site...Please, ban me.

We do our best around here to not run this place like iron-fisted dictators. Arguments happen, and not everyone likes everyone all the time. So no one's calling out "off with his head."

But for the record, you're pissing me off.

[sbjj]

I am hoping this post was meant to be just funny. I really hope you do not think you made a valid point here.

While that example was extreme in order to make a point, I think that there are fights out there that go down that really are examples virtually of "free money."

Take BJ vs Stevenson, for example. When I think about that fight, I literally can't come up with a way for Stevenson to win, barring some really super crazy fluke. I mean, it's not like Stevenson KOs people, and he's for damn sure not beating BJ in any other department. I literally believe that if BJ fought Stevenson 20 times he would beat him 20 times. Maybe in 50 fights, he might win 2. Maybe.

So why not take the free money? That's my point. If that doesn't agree with your playing style because it's "just not worth it," then fine. No one's saying you have to play like anyone else. Maybe what you do works for you. Maybe your method is effective. But that doesn't mean that it's the only way to play, or that other approaches aren't equally valid.

Dude, that is another bad example, because I bet BJ in that fight in Vegas @ -240. That line does not pertain to the discussion. BUT!, I would not have bet BJ @ -400 or -500 against Joe. It is just my rule. it kept me from even considering BJ against Edgar either time. Even though I though BJ was going to kill Edgar the first time, and beat him the second also.

[sbjj]

I don't want to see southbay-I mean sbjj- get banned because X is pissed

I was responding to that SPX. And SPX, I honestly mean this...If you somehow have the power to ban me, then do it. If whoever is in charge of this site gave you the power to ban me, then I want to get banned.

[Mr. IWS]

I think everyone should just agree to disagree, and move on. We all have the same objective, just different ways of getting there.

[Mr. IWS]

I don't want to see southbay-I mean sbjj- get banned because X is pissed

I was responding to that SPX. And SPX, I honestly mean this...If you somehow have the power to ban me, then do it. If whoever is in charge of this site gave you the power to ban me, then I want to get banned.

C'mon man, no need for that.

[SPX]

Dude, that is another bad example, because I bet BJ in that fight in Vegas @ -240. That line does not pertain to the discussion.

My point was that even if BJ WAS -500 then he'd be worth it. Hell, BJ probably would've been worth -1000.

[sbjj]

I don't want to see southbay-I mean sbjj- get banned because X is pissed

I was responding to that SPX. And SPX, I honestly mean this...If you somehow have the power to ban me, then do it. If whoever is in charge of this site gave you the power to ban me, then I want to get banned.

C'mon man, no need for that.

One member said that he did not want me banned because SPX was pissed at me. So one dude with a beef can get me banned here. I honestly do not need that crap.

[SPX]

One member said that he did not want me banned because SPX was pissed at me. So one dude with a beef can get me banned here. I honestly do not need that crap.

Have you been banned?

And if you're really that enraged that I'm a moderator of this forum, then I don't know what to tell you. It sounds petty and . . . childish.

[sbjj]

Dude, that is another bad example, because I bet BJ in that fight in Vegas @ -240. That line does not pertain to the discussion.

My point was that even if BJ WAS -500 then he'd be worth it. Hell, BJ probably would've been worth -1000.

And my point is that even though I AGREE with you. I will still not bet it. I agree, i believe BJ is 3 levels above Joe, and I also believe that he is the far better fighter. But with me, it is simple, there is a cut off on the risk-reward that I will not cross(most of the time).

I also thought the same before BJ fought Edgar.

i have broken my rule one time in the last year or so(maybe longer). I bet 2.5 units on Kos(he was like -400 or -500) against Paulo. It was just a bet where I thought Kos was close to a lock. Plus, i just really like Kos. I watched video on Thiago, and just saw no way he could even get Kos to the ground. i thought it was a clear case of 1 fighter on a completely different level than the other.

[SPX]

^^^ Well hey, we actually agree on something. You see? It's a new day.

[sbjj]

One member said that he did not want me banned because SPX was pissed at me. So one dude with a beef can get me banned here. I honestly do not need that crap.

Have you been banned?

And if you're really that enraged that I'm a moderator of this forum, then I don't know what to tell you. It sounds petty and . . . childish.

Did not even notice you were a moderater. Really do not care. Just know you are a dude with an obvious beef(for some time now) with me. So since I did not even realize you were a moderator, I guess that must mean I am maybe not petty and ...childish.

[sbjj]

^^^ Well hey, we actually agree on something. You see? It's a new day.

We actually just disagree on one part of one issue. i think you took offense at me questioning the wisdom of the dude you posted about in here.