UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

[SPX]

Well that is a line that wouldn't exist. The biggest Udog that normally takes place(barring extreme situations that take place 2% of the time) is +350. But we wouldn't even get him at that anyways. He would probably be +200 at most. Maybe even less if he posted a win before fighting him. I think Thiago would probably kick his ass anyways. He has actual power in his hands, Hardy doesn't.

I fear you missed the point.

[poopoo333]

Yeah I'm going to try to move forward in a better way. I feel more confident about myself now. I was just betting and hoping to get lucky before, but convincing myself there was something to what I was thinking(in some instances). I am just going to go with my gut and with what adds up to me. Hence Machida by Dec.

Machida by decision=great play imo. I have been saying Machida by decision when people used to discuss Machida vs Rampage last year. The line will probably be ridiculous, but "Not Rampage by decision" is a lock imo...Scientist, if you are still doing your locks parlay...there is a near lock imo.

I don't think Rampage will have an easy time getting Machida down(Rashad couldn't).

Rashad couldn't because he didn't try.

[edman5555]

Yeah I'm going to try to move forward in a better way. I feel more confident about myself now. I was just betting and hoping to get lucky before, but convincing myself there was something to what I was thinking(in some instances). I am just going to go with my gut and with what adds up to me. Hence Machida by Dec.

Machida by decision=great play imo. I have been saying Machida by decision when people used to discuss Machida vs Rampage last year. The line will probably be ridiculous, but "Not Rampage by decision" is a lock imo...Scientist, if you are still doing your locks parlay...there is a near lock imo.

I don't think Rampage will have an easy time getting Machida down(Rashad couldn't).

Rashad couldn't because he didn't try.

I just read the play by play and it doesn't mention anything about a takedown attempt. Maybe Machidas footwork prevented it? Or Greg Jackson and Rashad Evans thought they could KO Machida...Well Ortiz couldn't get him down.

[Svino]

I just read the play by play and it doesn't mention anything about a takedown attempt. Maybe Machidas footwork prevented it?

It's been a while since I watched the fight, but I think that was pretty much it. He just did his, "fade in, hit Rashad, fade out" thing very effectively. Most of the time, his distance kept him safe.

[sbjj]

I'll say he has a chance, but I wouldn't bet on it. For me to bet on it, he has to have more than a "chance". I have to think he is going to win the fight. Cain's stand up is not that bad..he has a good chin and he will def outwrestle him.

Junior looks strong as hell, so I think he might be able to stop some takedowns and I would not be suprised at all to see him catch Cain at some point, maybe even multiple points. However Cain has a way out of that, when he gets caught he can go for the takedown/tie him up. He did that amazingly well against Kongo, he literally picekd him up over his head and slammed him.

This isn't just an opinion on a fight for me but more of a change in betting style I think. From now on I am laying more money on less fights and I am sticking to those that I have a really good feeling about.

Leading up to last saturday I was thinking about placing two bets, Shields Via Decision and Cain Velasquez. I was going to control myself and stick to that, i eneded up failing. Luckily I went in pretty heavy on Cain and Shields so I came out ahead about 5u or so. I should of been ahead 15u or something in that area. This has happened to me a lot and I bet it has happened to many of you a lot. I call it over betting but it's literally "gambling addiction". It's time for me to tighten it up and just go big on the ones I think are worth it.

So far, I have Machida via Decision. I think I can get that at + odds and I will be putting at least 5u on it.

Also I am thinking Tyson Griffin over Nik Lentz, maybe via dec. as well. I bet I can get + odds on that as well though I am not yet convinced it will go to a decision.

Perhaps BJ Penn, though Hughes has been looking good lately and seemingly improving his hands.

Also, I am going to watch more fights from now on before I place bets. There has gotta be a science to this. I know we can beat the bookies.

Awesome post. Especially the less bets strategy. It sorta is like a gambling addiction, you just want each fight to have a bit more excitement.

[MMA_scientist]

Awesome post. Especially the less bets strategy. It sorta is like a gambling addiction, you just want each fight to have a bit more excitement.

Agreed. I am with you Edman... I am one of the people that has fallen into the action junkie trap. I used to be very conservative, only bet within very defined parameters, and only on certain events. I went like a year without ever having a losing UFC event. Then I got cocky, started betting everything and chasing and ended up going on a massive fail streak. Over at my blog, I post what I consider the smart plays, then IRL, I bet like a wildman. My blog plays are still doing really well (though still not as well as in the past), up about 70% for the year. but my real life wild man plays have caught up to me, and I am only up about 15u, by FAR my worst year.

[zY|]

Cecil Peoples keepin it gangster, straight not givin a fuck

[Mr. IWS]

^^^^^Priceless.

10-10 round if I ever saw one.

[Luke]

I thought that was James Toney ringside scouting Lesnar for his next match

[poopoo333]

Shields trains at a PLing gym that my friend used to train at called Diablo Barbell in preparation for his fight...the head guy there wrote this:

"Jake got the first 15 off in the first two weeks and was feeling great. Pouring everything into his training he ends up tweakening his back wrestling. Tries to work through it and makes it worse. Then opts for some rest time furthering the problem. This takes about a MONTH out of his training camp. I finally convince Jake to come in and promise that if he does I'll have him back on track. Jake comes back in and I work with him 1 on 1 for 10 straight days. He goes from barely being able to walk to being about 95%"

[SPX]

Fuck Jake Shields.

[zY|]

u mad?

[SPX]

A little. I still think Kampmann won that fight.

[zY|]

Fightmetric scored it a draw. The fight was razor close. I don't think it's too much to get worked up over. It certainly wasn't a robbery.

[SPX]

Well I had a bet on Kampmann, so if it had to go to someone, then I would've preferred it go to him.

Also, apparently Taylor got hosed too, so I'm double-pissed.

[zY|]

Well I had a bet on Kampmann, so if it had to go to someone, then I would've preferred it go to him.

Also, apparently Taylor got hosed too, so I'm double-pissed.

Yeah that's what I heard too. I've got that fight downloaded but haven't watched it yet.

[zY|]

Here's another good one.

[Mr. IWS]

LOL at Brocky ranked #2

[Svino]

Here's another good one.

Yeah, Brock at #2 is LOLworthy. I'm also surprised they have a guy who lost two in a row (Alves) over Jake Shields.

[MMA_scientist]

I am shocked at how Fedor can go on 30 fight win streak strethching a decade, lose 1 fight AFTER dropping Werdum, and suddenly he is #4. Rankings are difficult, but in my mind Fedor would still a favorite over every other heavyweight. I understand you have to drop him after the Werdum loss, but Fedor would put Brock to sleep in 30 seconds.