Originally Posted by SPX
Joe was coming off a long layoff in the Stout fight and he gassed in the second round. I think J Lo's wrestling is pretty good but it may not be enough to stop Sotir from taking him down. I think Sot will win but I am not 100% confident in it. I bet if he does win though, it will be by a dec. Sot does not have a lot of power in his hands and I doubt he will be submitting J lo. I bet a prop will pop up for it. You might be able to get +odds.
1 unit = 300 $
I know Lauzon was coming off a layoff, but it's hard to say how much that affected him. Since he's come back we've gotten two fights: Stout and Reudiger. J-Lo really only has one good UFC win: Jeremy Stephens, who's not really a ground fighter. (I know he beat Pulver--and everyone here knows I support Pulver--but . . . don't make me say it.)
Apparently he also beat Mike Brown way the fuck back in the day, but Brown's never been great at LW and that was 6 years ago.
G-Sot is looking awesome and, with Stevenson and Pellegrino under his belt, he's kind of already surpassed J-Lo in accomplishments in my book.
But to address your point directly about the fight going to decision, yeah, it probably will.
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Yeah J lo hasn't really beat anyone great. He does have some positives though, he finished all his opponents in his wins, he was doing well against against stout until he gassed( We can't say he would have won if he didn't gas but it is possible). Also, he is very young. His last loss before Stout was kflo, when he was only 24 years old. Still I think you are right though, Sotir should be able to win this. I dont think George Sot's wrestling is really that great but it was good enough to steal rounds from Pellegrino and Big Daddy. His striking is ok, mostly I think he does well because his reach is so much longer than the guys he is fighting. Not that I am an expert on striking or anything, but he doesn't seem like any kind of world beater on the feet. Pellegrino almost KO'd him at the end of their fight. Joe and Pellegrino both landed takedowns on him during their fights by the way, just not as many as George landed on them. George's BJJ is very good though.
What I likely see happening is George taking J Loe down to steal rounds. I'm not sure George will have much of any advantage in the standup. Their reach is about the same( J LO is 5' 10'' if i am not mistaken) and he seems about as good as George. I'm sure someone can land a big shot that changes the fight but its not like their is a huge noticable gap.
I think George might be a little thicked and stronger also, which might help with takedowns. But he isn't going to be subbing J LO if he gets him down, he will most likely have to watch out and be careful. Which gives him good reason to stay on top and take it easy, do some damage and maintain position.
So I am going to say George Sotiropolous by takedown, top control decision. I am actually thinking about betting it now. Thanks for getting me thinking.
1 unit = 300 $
Just took Rampage/Machida goes distance @+105
So bets so far:
George Sot by Decision
Machida by Decision
Tyson Griffin.
Edson Barboza
Maybe Karo Pariysan
Probably BJ PENN.
1 unit = 300 $
I just bought a new phone that allows me to surf the internet so I can place bets at work on my break. Oh yeah, go gambling. I will be getting the good lines though.
1 unit = 300 $
I am looking at Falcao/Harris right now. Falcoa is a wild brawler, old school Wanderlei style- just pure agression. I have never seen him on his back, and I think Harris can probably put him there and slow his pace down. He doesn't look to have the technical grappling to give Harris any problems (like when Amir armbarred him, but he seems to have fixed that). If Harris chooses to stand and bang, he will probably get put down though, Falcao looks like a maniac. Falcoa highlight: http://www.fightlinker.com/maiquel-falc ... o#comments (watch @ 5:45 for some unsportsmanlike conduct). But at -255, i don't know, that is a little steep
I think Munoz gets it done with striking. I agree that his wrestling has not translated. Not all guys have wrestling that will translate to mma (just like some really good bjj guys can't make it work in MMA). He is hard to control though and Simpson is going to have to struggle to get him down, if he can at all. Simpson has shown some power as well, but I just think Munoz will bomb him out at some point. Munoz is going to put it all together IMO and end up being good. Hell, he gave a closer fight to Okami than Nate did.
I am going to be on BJ.
I have Davis in a couple parlays (Faber/Davis and Davis/Maia). I think he will win, but Boetch probably has some value. We saw Davis get stuffed in his last fight... Boetch is the first D1 wrestler to face Davis, and he might be able to stuff a shot or two and land his heavy hands.
I guess I have to concede that Sotiropolous is good. Lauzon is way behind on the ground IMO... if Sot gets him down, he is in trouble. Still not going to bet it though. I don't really see how Joe wins it, tbh. I would like to see Sot/Pelligrino again if anyone has a link
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Where did you get lines on Griffin and Barboza? Haven't seen those.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
I think Lentz is going to be a tough fight for Griffin. Lentz should actually be the better wrestler. He can strike too... I think that is a really close fight, but the decision prop is where it is at for me. Neither is a finisher and neither is easy to finish. If the line is even remotely decent (say -300), I will probably be on the decision prop here.
Barboza looks like a nightmare, but Elkins is a straight up midwestern wrassler. I don't know that Barboza has had to face a wrestler yet... how is his takedown defense? Elkins does not look intimidating, but he doesn't suck.
Hallma/Karo is really close too. Hallman could play spoiler again here. His hands are at least as good as Karo's, and he has good takedowns, and he fights really smart. I don't think he will let Karo put him on his back. Either guy has value @ +150 IMO
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
I've got Lyoto already and I'm thinking about pushing my be up to 5u. The ONLY way I see Rampage winning this fight is by KO and I am just extremely doubtful about that happening.
My biggest concern is whether Lyoto's gonna be at the top of his mental game or whether his mind is fucked up from the KO.
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Interesting highlight. I see what you mean about him being a brawler. Seems like he's all hands, too. I didn't see much in the way of kicks or a clinch game.
I think Harris takes him down and keeps him there. But you're right that he could catch Harris. Miranda rocked Harris with a punch and had him in a little bit of trouble before Harris turned it around. I do agree that the line is a little steep, though.
Side note: Amir did not armbar Harris. He TKOd him and it was a shitty stoppage.
I liked BJ as a +135 dog. Don't really like him as a -155 fave.
Unless Lauzon REALLY DID become a monster between the Stout and Reudiger fights, I think George is better than him everywhere.
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That will probably cash.
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I thought I remebered an armbar... well, those two things (Miranda and Amir) are probably enough to scare me out of the bet. Did you see the roid rage at the end of the clip? What a douche. Probably some blood feud, these brazilians and their feuds...
The more I think about this, the less I like it. I do think BJ is better. I think his takedown defense has gotten better, Hughes has gotten slower and less powerful... but I am pretty sure Buj just skipped training camp all together for this fight. He said he was just working out of his gym for this one, basically training himself. I really hope he doesn't show up and gas again. I have sort of talked myself out of this one this morning...
I think he just knew he was going to beat Gabe and that Gabe is a gasser, so he went bananas... worst case scenario, Gabe gasses first. He is the same guy, solid ground game, but not spectacular, decent hands, but nothing crazy, decent takedowns. I am not going to bet this fight, because in my heart I still don't think Sotiropolous is very good. I am just waiting for the hammer to fall...
after stewing for a couple hours, I really think my big bet is going to be Griffin/Lentz goes the distance.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
The Amir fight really doesn't tell us a whole lot. I thought it was a poor stoppage. The ref acted too quickly. Harris thought so, too. Here's his Harris's 9 minute reaction:
http://www.ultimatefighter.com/videos/t ... ald-s-fury
I actually have a profile of Harris in this month's UMMA. He actually says today that Amir did him a favor and that he was not ready for the UFC at that point. He says he's a much better fight now than he was then, and I tend to agree with him.
And yes, I saw Falcao act like a maniac. Dude seems like he might be genuinely crazy.
I was skeptical about George as well, mostly because of the way he lost to ol' what's-his-name on TUF and the way what's-his-name ended up fairing in the UFC after that.
But it looks like George is one of those fighters who improved dramatically after the show and now he's a legit contender. He's for damn sure doing a hell of a lot better than that season's winner.
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Rampage winning inside distance is @ +400 and Machida winning decision is +160
Brown/foster goes the distance? It was just released @ +220, now at +180 5min later...
Brown has gone to distance 2 times, foster hasn't yet. They have been fighting well above and below their own skill levels. They seem to finally be evenly match and combined with the fact that its a loser leaves town situation, maybe the will be conservative and try for the UD. Thoughts?
Aaron Simpson has a really good chance against munoz. Munoz on paper is the better wrestler, but he trains at blackhouse and hasn't been able to keep those wrestling skills up from what I can tell in his past few fights. Simpson trains with cb/bader so you know his wrestling will be on point. Simpson also has the better hands.
I agree that Simpson is the better wrestler. But I just don't think he is so much better that he can get and keep Munoz down. Simpson has been working his wrestling consistently since college (his is 37)... I think it is clear he is better than Munoz at this point. Also, Munoz's style of wrestling is not very mma conducive. He shoots into a front headlock position and then either drags out or comes out the back door... great for wrestling, really ahrd to score on a guy who is good there... not great for mma. He doesn't have a really explosive shot.
That said, I don't think Simpson can keep him down. And given what we saw with Leben, there is no reason to think that he will not have to work really hard for his takedowns. I just think that Munoz is going to blast him at some point and wobble him just like Leben and Lawlor did. Munoz packs some power. He also sets a high pace in those scrambles.
I agree that Simpson is live, but I think Munoz will win it personally.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
One thing that may be worth keeping in mind is that all but one of Simpson's wins are by (T)KO.
Also, I had no idea he was that old. I thought he was like 29 or 30.
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