UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

[MMA_scientist]

really? Why is Struve favored so much? Is it because of all the wins that he has over top competition? Or is it because he has never been dropped by a big brawler with heavy hands?

[poopoo333]

really? Why is Struve favored so much? Is it because of all the wins that he has over top competition? Or is it because he has never been dropped by a big brawler with heavy hands?

My sarcasm detector is working today.

[MMA_scientist]

Seriously though, that line is dumb. Struve might win, I know nothing of McCorkle's work except that he kimura'd Hunt, which means he is at least passable on the ground. But Struve is now and ever shall be a mid level guy, he shouldn't be -260 over any UFC HW. I am probably going to toss a value play on McCorkle, but going to wait for the line to open elsewhere.

[Luke]

Lol sportsbet opens the line at Struve -260 McCorkle +180 ,5dimes has the line at Struve +110 McCorkle -150 .

Someones got a bad number up .I say its sportsbet.com

[MMA_scientist]

Figures... when it opens at one of my books the value is gone. Oh well.

I would put it at -115 for both guys.

Raw potential versus established mediocrity

Maybe slight edge to McCorkle because Struve got dropped by Buentello and Nelson, and a man the size of McCorkle HAS to have power.

[MMA_scientist]

I see it opened at +180 on 5dimes too. Money came in fast and dropped it. I think it will come back to close to even.

[edman5555]

Fuck I can't believe I missed Mccorkle. Motherfucker. I wanted to bet that. +180

[edman5555]

I think Jim Miller has a good shot at beating Oliv. He will take him down, he is big as hell. He seems to have good BJJ. He should be able to stop oliv from subbing him..maybe.

[edman5555]

I hate the way lines move so FAST. Unless you catch the line in 5 minutes, it can be gone. Like BJ at +130.

[poopoo333]

Alves -305
Howard +245
-------------------------------

Stevenson -290
Danzig +230


The Alves line will get way better imo

[Luke]

European books have had Alves at -240 for weeks so your probably right it will go down

[poopoo333]

I think Stevenson is a horrible match up for Danzig. I think the UFC is trying to get rid of Danzig. He gets a "gimme" @ UFC 109, then a more even fight @ UFC 115 which ended in that controversial submission, then they give him the type of guy that eats Danzig for breakfast.

[MMA_scientist]

.5u on Howard @ +235

I think Alves' striking is totally overrated and Howard looked fast and dangerous against Ellenberger. My big concern here is that Howard could probably make 155 and Alves is obviously a huge "welterweight" (are you really in the weight class id you come in 7 pounds heavy?)

[poopoo333]

Thoughts on Oliveira and Miller? At first I was thinking Oliveira, but IIRC Escudero was beating him until Escudero kicked him in the balls and made him go crazy. It might just be smart to stay away because we haven't seen enough of Oliveira against top competition.

[MMA_scientist]

^ Oliveira won rounds 1 and 2 by most accounts, then he subbed him in round 3. Escudero wanted to strike in that fight, but I think it would have ended eariler if he tried to take him down.

Oliveira has won every fight inside the distance.

I think it is a tough fight though. Oliveira has a more dynamic striking style, with all the flying kicks and stuff, but I think Miller is a better boxer. But Miller is short and Oliveira can kick. Miller has an underrated ground game and unless Oliveira is even better than people are saying, he won't sub Miller. I think the line is just about right as it is just about even. If either guy becomes an underdog, I would say they are worth a bet. Miller could win it via control, but Oliveira has that style on his back that is very hard to control and makes guys want to get out of there. But Miller is a bjj bb himself.

I would give a slight edge to Oliveira personally just because of his reach. But Miller gets to decide where to fight most likely.

[poopoo333]

^ Oliveira won rounds 1 and 2 by most accounts, then he subbed him in round 3. Escudero wanted to strike in that fight, but I think it would have ended eariler if he tried to take him down.

Hmm, alright, then my "IIRC"=I didn't recall correctly, thanks.

[Luke]

Didnt realize these odds were out

[sbjj]

.5u on Howard @ +235

I think Alves' striking is totally overrated and Howard looked fast and dangerous against Ellenberger. My big concern here is that Howard could probably make 155 and Alves is obviously a huge "welterweight" (are you really in the weight class id you come in 7 pounds heavy?)

This to me is spot on. I also agree that Alves striking is severly overrated. The guy was outstruck by Fischer and Lytle(at least towards the end). He is basically living off his showing against Hughes and KOS. But in all actuality the only guy I have seen him hurt from standing STRIKES is KOS. At least recently. i think Howard has a real shot here. Howard is tough and resiliant. Alves seems to have a hard time with guys who just do not fold.

[SPX]

^^^ Remember he knocked out Karo, too.

[sbjj]

^^^ Remember he knocked out Karo, too.

Yea, so did Hallman. The Karo fight actually proves my point. Karo was BEATING Alves until Alves got him with a knee. Karo was actually beating Alves standing before that.